COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[mackenzie]

The idea of easement of lockdown effects everyone differently. I know of a 27 year old who is now suffering symptoms of anxiety at the thought of going back out. No underlying health problem, he has just taken on board the government messages at the beginning of lockdown and it seems to have become an obsession.
My 71 year old aunt on the other hand (who has had asthma since childhood) can't wait to have something approaching a normal life again. I noticed a change in her during the lockdown but now she seems to be back to her old self. She lives in Leicester but escaped the latest lockdown there because she lives 2 miles outside the zone. Although aware of the particular risk to herself she can't wait to get out again.
It depends on the mindset of each individual, and no government is going to do the right thing for everyone.

 

[cleavers]

That looks pretty bad to be fair. No worse than all the recent protests though which didn't lead to any noticeable spike. We will see what happens I guess but the amount of people with the virus is so low now I am fairly optimistic nothing will happen.

Photo's always make crowds look worse through foreshortening, but there weren't many people with Covid-19 in mid February, and look what was happening 2 months later.

 

[MeatnSpudsMCFC]

I haven’t done much research on the models and I’m sure someone will eventually find the relevant material but wasn’t Ferguson’s report with the Imperial college of London suggesting that 500,000 deaths would occur in a worst case scenario and IF no form of a lockdown occurred? Considering we’re at an official death toll of 44,000 with everything shut and not counting excess deaths - it doesn’t seem entirely unreasonable.

 

[grunge]

Who? Honestly don't remember that

There were a few exponential growth discussions early on, millions would have been mentioned back then but were just mathematical discussions rather than productions.

which was all about doubling times etc etc.

 

[grunge]

I haven’t done much research on the models and I’m surely someone will eventually find the relevant material but wasn’t Ferguson’s report with the Imperial college of London suggesting that 500,000 deaths would occur in a worst case scenario and IF no form of a lockdown occurred? Considering we’re at an official death toll of 44,000 with everything shut and not counting excess deaths - it doesn’t seem entirely unreasonable.

500k with no controls would have been passed very easily in my view.

the problem with the happy clappers is the fact they look at it from where we are now ( 4 months in ) with lockdowns and say “look look it’s not as bad as all that” where as models were talking totals.

500k is an average of 1369 deaths a day over a year. With no controls that is well in the range of possibility.

 

[cleavers]

The amount of people who had it at the start of March was low (lower than now) and we’ve ended up with 50k dead.

That's clearly not true, the amount of people that had it at the start of March was much higher than now, we just didn't know it, that was how it exploded in numbers, not many had it in early to mid Feb though, and it still happened, but now we are testing huge numbers unlike early March, so it should be easier to spot, and we have far better knowledge on treatment, another advantage from back then.

One thing I'd like to know, and that we'll probably never find out, is how many children actually had it asymptomatically and subsequently took it home to their parents ? That could have been the huge spreader that made it explode.

 

[cleavers]

He predicted up to 510,000 in the uk
2.2 million in the usa,

All based on a 13 year old computer model and as you say broke his own rules to sleep with some married women.

This is what we are up against.

You're missing an important part of that prediction, it included "if we do nothing" which we didn't.

 

[beast]

500k with no controls would have been passed very easily in my view.

the problem with the happy clappers is the fact they look at it from where we are now ( 4 months in ) with lockdowns and say “look look it’s not as bad as all that” where as models were talking totals.

500k is an average of 1369 deaths a day over a year. With no controls that is well in the range of possibility.

It's called a prevention paradox or something along those lines.
It was discussed on here several weeks back I think.

 

[BigOscar]

You're missing an important part of that prediction, it included "if we do nothing" which we didn't.

"we should put out that fire, if we don't, 500,000 people will die"
puts out fire, 40,000 people die in the fire
"see, only 40,000 people died in that fire when you said 500,000 would, so why did we go to such efforts putting it out? You clearly were talking shit with that 500,000 number"

 

[cleavers]

"we should put out that fire, if we don't, 500,000 people will die"
puts out fire, 40,000 people die in the fire
"see, only 40,000 people died in that fire when you said 500,000 would, so why did we go to such efforts putting it out? You clearly were talking shit with that 500,000 number"

Are you suggesting that doing what we did, didn't save 10's of thousands of lives ? That we shouldn't have bothered ?