Fuck me the arrogance of you.
We have problems defensively and we have problems finishing chances when Agüero is out (and even sometimes when he's fit).
You want analysis?
City have created 85.27 expected goals (xG) this season, 4 above our actual numbers of goals scored.
Liverpool have created 66.16 xG, 6 below the actual number.
City's defensive xG is 34.05, almost dead on the 34 goals conceded.
Liverpools defensive xG is 32.78 (Just over 1 goal less than City), but they have only conceded 25.
These changes lead to City's expected points being 8.37 higher than our real tally.
While Liverpool's expected points are 22.91 lower than reality.
An analysis of the things that have cost us this season amount to:
- Defensive frailties
- Missing chances
- Injuries
- Misfortune
Our defensive numbers are actually similar to Liverpool, while we are creating so many more opportunities than any other team. We should be leading.
There is obviously an argument about xG and how, especially defensively, it favours teams who get lot's of men behind the ball, as xG doesn't account for the number of players goal side of the ball. Teams like Burnley often over perform in xG. This could explain Liverpool's insane stats, but it doesn't completely. Stats like Liverpool's (exceeding xG by a ridiculous margin) is unsustainable as it relies on players to finish many difficult chances and rarely or never miss very good chances. Some of it has to be put down to fortune.
However, it highlights that creatively we are the best team in the Premier League by a long way and our sheer number of goals is not solely or even mainly the work of our forwards but the invention of our midfield. Defensively, our team is far more exposed than teams who keep numbers behind the ball and will often concede around the xG. We need to help lower our defensive xG while trying to actually meet our own attacking xG or even exceed it next season. Lowering our defensive xG will come from hopefully quality reinforcements at centre-back and possibly left-back while Foden / Bernardo should be able to cover the advancing LB much more efficiently than David Silva.