#9 | Gabriel Jesus - 2019/20 Performances

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opinions, i can get behind that, and Gabby is in a slump no doubt, but Aguero never did? but i disagree with how good you seem to think those chances were.
And I did predict it, right? Look how positive the Liverpool game was with only Raz starting and not Marhez. I'm surprised not many have noticed that it's in Mahrez's and Raz's best interest to not have Jesus perform well. Especially Pep. You can say what you like but the dropped points in that formation speak for itself.

It's been a 2 season slump.
 
Compared the top 20 PL scorers (before Spurs v Everton tonight) to see what the trends were, and even I was quite surprised.

Top 20 goalscorers in the league

Goals
Vardy - 21
Aubameyang - 19
Ings - 18
Salah - 17
Aguero - 16
Mane - 16
Jimenez - 15
Martial - 15
Rashford - 15
Abraham - 13
Calvert-Lewin - 13
Kane - 13
Sterling - 13
De Bruyne - 11
Pukki - 11
Richarlison - 11
Wood - 11
Jesus - 10
Ayew - 9
Willian - 9

Minutes
Jimenez - 2820
Aubameyang - 2747
Ayew - 2747
Richarlison - 2704
Pukki - 2654
Vardy - 2584
Salah - 2520
De Bruyne - 2466
Mane - 2434
Ings - 2365
Sterling - 2343
Willian - 2276
Calvert-Lewin - 2212
Rashford - 2210
Martial - 2201
Wood - 2090
Abraham - 2059
Kane - 2050
Jesus - 1644
Aguero - 1460

Shots
Jimenez - 108
Salah - 108
De Bruyne - 91
Rashford - 83
Aubameyang - 82
Jesus - 81
Richarlison - 81
Sterling - 81
Abraham - 78
Ings - 78
Aguero - 76
Pukki - 76
Calvert-Lewin - 75
Martial - 69
Vardy - 69
Kane - 66
Mane - 65
Willian - 65
Wood - 53
Ayew - 52

Shots on Target
Salah - 47
Jesus - 40
Jimenez - 39
Vardy - 38
Aubameyang - 37
Rashford - 37
Abraham - 36
Martial - 35
Calvert-Lewin - 34
Pukki - 34
Ings - 32
Mane - 31
Richarlison - 30
Aguero - 28
De Bruyne - 28
Kane - 28
Sterling - 27
Wood - 26
Willian - 25
Ayew - 23

Shot Accuracy
Vardy - 38/69 = 55.1%
Martial - 35/69 = 50.7%
Jesus - 40/81 = 49.4%
Wood - 26/53 = 49.1%
Mane - 31/65 = 47.7%
Abraham - 36/78 = 46.2%
Calvert-Lewin - 34/75 = 45.3%
Aubameyang - 37/82 = 45.1%
Pukki - 34/76 = 44.7%
Ayew - 23/52 = 44.2%
Rashford - 37/83 = 44.6%
Salah - 47/108 = 43.5%
Kane - 28/66 = 42.4%
Ings - 32/78 - 41%
Willian - 25/65 = 38.5%
Richarlison - 30/81 = 37%
Aguero - 28/76 = 36.8%
Jimenez - 39/108 = 36.1%
Sterling - 27/81 = 33.3%
De Bruyne - 28/91 = 30.8%

Conversion Rate
Vardy - 21/69 = 30.4%
Mane - 16/65 = 24.6%
Aubameyang - 19/82 = 23.2%
Ings - 18/78 = 23.1%
Martial - 15/69 = 21.7%
Aguero - 16/76 = 21.1%
Wood - 11/53 = 20.8%
Kane - 13/66 = 19.7%
Rashford - 15/83 = 18.1%
Ayew - 9/52 = 17.3%
Calvert-Lewin - 13/75 = 17.3%
Abraham - 13/78 = 16.7%
Sterling - 13/81 = 16.1%
Salah - 17/108 = 15.7%
Pukki - 11/76 = 14.5%
Jimenez - 15/108 = 13.9%
Willian - 9/65 = 13.8%
Richarlison - 11/81 = 13.7%
Jesus - 10/81 = 12.4%
De Bruyne - 11/91 = 12.1%

On Target Conversion Rate
Aguero - 16/28 = 57.1%
Ings - 18/32 = 56.3%
Vardy - 21/38 = 55.3%
Mane - 16/31 = 51.6%
Aubameyang - 19/37 = 51.4%
Sterling - 13/27 = 48.1%
Kane - 13/28 = 46.4%
Martial - 15/35 = 42.9%
Wood - 11/26 = 42.3%
Rashford - 15/37 = 40.6%
De Bruyne - 11/28 = 39.3%
Ayew - 9/23 = 39.1%
Jimenez - 15/39 = 38.5%
Calvert-Lewin - 13/34 = 38.2%
Richarlison - 11/30 = 36.7%
Salah - 17/47 = 36.2%
Abraham - 13/36 = 36.1%
Willian - 9/25 = 36%
Pukki - 11/34 = 32.4%
Jesus - 10/40 = 25%

Minutes per Goal
Aguero - 1460/16 = 91.25
Vardy - 2584/21 = 123.1
Ings - 2365/18 = 131.4
Aubameyang - 2747/19 = 144.6
Martial - 2201/15 = 146.7
Salah - 2520/17 = 148.23
Mane - 2434/16 = 152.12
Kane - 2050/13 = 157.7
Abraham - 2059/13 = 158.4
Jesus - 1644/10 = 164.4
Calvert-Lewin - 2212/13 = 170.15
Sterling - 2343/13 = 180.2
Jimenez - 2820/15 = 188
Wood - 2090/11 = 190
De Bruyne 2466/11 = 224.18
Pukki 2654/11 = 241.3
Richarlison - 2704/11 - 245.8
Willian - 2276/9 = 252.9
Ayew - 2747/9 = 305.2

Shots per Goal
Vardy - 69/21 = 3.29
Mane - 65/16 = 4.06
Aubameyang - 82/19 = 4.32
Ings - 78/18 = 4.33
Martial - 69/15 = 4.6
Aguero - 76/16 = 4.75
Wood - 53/11 - 4.82
Kane - 66/13 = 5.08
Rashford - 83/15 = 5.33
Calvert-Lewin - 75/13 = 5.77
Ayew - 52/9 = 5.78
Abraham - 78/13 = 6
Sterling - 81/13 = 6.23
Salah - 108/17 = 6.35
Pukki - 76/11 = 6.91
Jimenez - 108/15 = 7.2
Willian - 65/9 = 7.22
Richarlison - 81/11 - 7.36
Jesus - 81/10 = 8.1
De Bruyne - 91/11 = 8.27

Shots on Target per Goal
Aguero - 28/16 = 1.75
Ings - 32/18 = 1.78
Vardy - 38/21 = 1.81
Mane - 31/16 = 1.94
Aubameyang - 37/19 = 1.95
Sterling - 27/13 = 2.08
Kane - 28/13 - 2.15
Martial - 35/15 = 2.33
Wood - 26/11 = 2.36
Rashford - 37/15 = 2.47
De Bruyne - 28/11 - 2.55
Ayew - 23/9 = 2.56
Jimenez - 39/15 = 2.6
Calvert-Lewin - 34/13 = 2.62
Richarlison - 30/11 = 2.73
Salah - 47/17 = 2.76
Abraham - 13/36 = 2.77
Willian - 25/9 = 2.78
Pukki - 34/11 = 3.09
Jesus - 40/10 = 4.

Minutes per Shot
Aguero - 1460/76 = 19.2
Jesus - 1644/81 = 20.3
Salah - 2520/108 = 23.3
Jimenez - 2820/108 = 26.1
Abraham - 2059/78 = 26.4
Rashford - 2210/83 = 26.6
De Bruyne 2466/91 = 27.1
Sterling - 2343/81 = 28.9
Calvert-Lewin - 2212/75 = 29.5
Ings - 2365/78 = 30.3
Kane - 2050/66 = 31.1
Martial - 2201/69 = 31.9
Richarlison - 2704/81 = 33.4
Aubameyang - 2747/82 = 33.5
Pukki - 2654/76 = 34.9
Willian - 2276/65 = 35
Vardy - 2584/69 = 37.5
Mane - 2434/65 = 37.5
Wood - 2090/53 = 39.4
Ayew - 2747/52 = 52.8

Minutes per Shots on Target
Jesus - 1644/40 = 41.1
Aguero - 1460/28 = 52.1
Salah - 2520/47 = 53.6
Abraham - 2059/36 = 57.2
Rashford - 2210/37 = 59.7
Martial - 2201/35 = 62.9
Calvert-Lewin - 2212/34 = 65.1
Vardy - 2584/38 = 68
Jimenez - 2820/39 = 72.3
Kane - 2050/28 = 73.2
Ings - 2365/32 = 73.9
Aubameyang - 2747/37 = 74.2
Pukki - 2654/34 = 78.1
Mane - 2434/31 = 78.5
Wood - 2090/26 = 80.4
Sterling - 2343/27 = 86.8
De Bruyne - 2466/28 = 88.1
Richarlison - 2704/30 = 90.1
Willian - 2276/25 = 91
Ayew - 2747/23 = 119.4

Jesus has the second fewest minutes, but the second most shots on target. He is 3rd for shot accuracy, showing that he regularly hits the target and his chances are good enough for him to do so. So from that, you'd think lots of goals?

Well, he comes in second lowest in overall conversion rate, at 12.4%. It's low, but there are other more potent strikers like Jimenez, whose rate is not much better, so you're thinking, maybe it's quality of chance or some other factor.

Then you look at shots on target conversion rate, and he's suddenly bottom and at least 11% behind every other striker apart from Pukki, who plays in a Norwich team that has capitulated in the second half of the season towards relegation. This suddenly makes it clear where a striker who has a high shot accuracy and lots of shots on target doesn't score any goals.

It's backed up by switching the conversion rate into number of shots needed to score. Jesus is second bottom overall and bottom for shots on target, as you can see he is taking twice as many as would be considered good. Even more starkly, Jesus and Aguero have shots more frequently than any of the top 20, and Jesus is the only player to have a shot on target in every single half on average.

What does this show? That ultimately Jesus gets in good positions, gets plenty of chances, hits the target, but doesn't score. That's why he's so frustrating, whereas Raheem misses the target far more often but when he does hit the target, his scoring rate is good. Jesus has a fundamental flaw that means he's not prolific.

At Jesus rate of shots on target, if he'd had Jimenez playing time of 2,820 minutes, he'd have had 68 shots on target. At his shots on target conversion rate, he'd have scored 17 goals. With the same number of shots on target, Sergio would have 38 goals, Vardy 37 and Calvert-Lewin 25.

In fact if Aguero and Vardy had had Jesus 40 shots on target he'd have 22 goals and Ayew would have 17 goals.

If Vardy had had Jesus conversion rate, he'd have only 9 league goals and Aguero would have 7.

So, for all the talk, it all boils down to a man with the best chances, the most frequent chances, the ability to hit the target but the complete inability to hit the back of the net. That's why people are so frustrated, and that's why they're looking at alternatives.
Good stats and analysis. So is the boy not hitting the ball hard enough, putting it straight at the goalkeeper? One thing with Aguero, on countless occasions is that he hits the ball so hard that placement becomes secondary. Its past the goalie before he has a chance to react. You would think that some of Gabbys problems could be coached out of him. Personally, I think he has a confidence issue.
 
Compared the top 20 PL scorers (before Spurs v Everton tonight) to see what the trends were, and even I was quite surprised.

Top 20 goalscorers in the league

Goals
Vardy - 21
Aubameyang - 19
Ings - 18
Salah - 17
Aguero - 16
Mane - 16
Jimenez - 15
Martial - 15
Rashford - 15
Abraham - 13
Calvert-Lewin - 13
Kane - 13
Sterling - 13
De Bruyne - 11
Pukki - 11
Richarlison - 11
Wood - 11
Jesus - 10
Ayew - 9
Willian - 9

Minutes
Jimenez - 2820
Aubameyang - 2747
Ayew - 2747
Richarlison - 2704
Pukki - 2654
Vardy - 2584
Salah - 2520
De Bruyne - 2466
Mane - 2434
Ings - 2365
Sterling - 2343
Willian - 2276
Calvert-Lewin - 2212
Rashford - 2210
Martial - 2201
Wood - 2090
Abraham - 2059
Kane - 2050
Jesus - 1644
Aguero - 1460

Shots
Jimenez - 108
Salah - 108
De Bruyne - 91
Rashford - 83
Aubameyang - 82
Jesus - 81
Richarlison - 81
Sterling - 81
Abraham - 78
Ings - 78
Aguero - 76
Pukki - 76
Calvert-Lewin - 75
Martial - 69
Vardy - 69
Kane - 66
Mane - 65
Willian - 65
Wood - 53
Ayew - 52

Shots on Target
Salah - 47
Jesus - 40
Jimenez - 39
Vardy - 38
Aubameyang - 37
Rashford - 37
Abraham - 36
Martial - 35
Calvert-Lewin - 34
Pukki - 34
Ings - 32
Mane - 31
Richarlison - 30
Aguero - 28
De Bruyne - 28
Kane - 28
Sterling - 27
Wood - 26
Willian - 25
Ayew - 23

Shot Accuracy
Vardy - 38/69 = 55.1%
Martial - 35/69 = 50.7%
Jesus - 40/81 = 49.4%
Wood - 26/53 = 49.1%
Mane - 31/65 = 47.7%
Abraham - 36/78 = 46.2%
Calvert-Lewin - 34/75 = 45.3%
Aubameyang - 37/82 = 45.1%
Pukki - 34/76 = 44.7%
Ayew - 23/52 = 44.2%
Rashford - 37/83 = 44.6%
Salah - 47/108 = 43.5%
Kane - 28/66 = 42.4%
Ings - 32/78 - 41%
Willian - 25/65 = 38.5%
Richarlison - 30/81 = 37%
Aguero - 28/76 = 36.8%
Jimenez - 39/108 = 36.1%
Sterling - 27/81 = 33.3%
De Bruyne - 28/91 = 30.8%

Conversion Rate
Vardy - 21/69 = 30.4%
Mane - 16/65 = 24.6%
Aubameyang - 19/82 = 23.2%
Ings - 18/78 = 23.1%
Martial - 15/69 = 21.7%
Aguero - 16/76 = 21.1%
Wood - 11/53 = 20.8%
Kane - 13/66 = 19.7%
Rashford - 15/83 = 18.1%
Ayew - 9/52 = 17.3%
Calvert-Lewin - 13/75 = 17.3%
Abraham - 13/78 = 16.7%
Sterling - 13/81 = 16.1%
Salah - 17/108 = 15.7%
Pukki - 11/76 = 14.5%
Jimenez - 15/108 = 13.9%
Willian - 9/65 = 13.8%
Richarlison - 11/81 = 13.7%
Jesus - 10/81 = 12.4%
De Bruyne - 11/91 = 12.1%

On Target Conversion Rate
Aguero - 16/28 = 57.1%
Ings - 18/32 = 56.3%
Vardy - 21/38 = 55.3%
Mane - 16/31 = 51.6%
Aubameyang - 19/37 = 51.4%
Sterling - 13/27 = 48.1%
Kane - 13/28 = 46.4%
Martial - 15/35 = 42.9%
Wood - 11/26 = 42.3%
Rashford - 15/37 = 40.6%
De Bruyne - 11/28 = 39.3%
Ayew - 9/23 = 39.1%
Jimenez - 15/39 = 38.5%
Calvert-Lewin - 13/34 = 38.2%
Richarlison - 11/30 = 36.7%
Salah - 17/47 = 36.2%
Abraham - 13/36 = 36.1%
Willian - 9/25 = 36%
Pukki - 11/34 = 32.4%
Jesus - 10/40 = 25%

Minutes per Goal
Aguero - 1460/16 = 91.25
Vardy - 2584/21 = 123.1
Ings - 2365/18 = 131.4
Aubameyang - 2747/19 = 144.6
Martial - 2201/15 = 146.7
Salah - 2520/17 = 148.23
Mane - 2434/16 = 152.12
Kane - 2050/13 = 157.7
Abraham - 2059/13 = 158.4
Jesus - 1644/10 = 164.4
Calvert-Lewin - 2212/13 = 170.15
Sterling - 2343/13 = 180.2
Jimenez - 2820/15 = 188
Wood - 2090/11 = 190
De Bruyne 2466/11 = 224.18
Pukki 2654/11 = 241.3
Richarlison - 2704/11 - 245.8
Willian - 2276/9 = 252.9
Ayew - 2747/9 = 305.2

Shots per Goal
Vardy - 69/21 = 3.29
Mane - 65/16 = 4.06
Aubameyang - 82/19 = 4.32
Ings - 78/18 = 4.33
Martial - 69/15 = 4.6
Aguero - 76/16 = 4.75
Wood - 53/11 - 4.82
Kane - 66/13 = 5.08
Rashford - 83/15 = 5.33
Calvert-Lewin - 75/13 = 5.77
Ayew - 52/9 = 5.78
Abraham - 78/13 = 6
Sterling - 81/13 = 6.23
Salah - 108/17 = 6.35
Pukki - 76/11 = 6.91
Jimenez - 108/15 = 7.2
Willian - 65/9 = 7.22
Richarlison - 81/11 - 7.36
Jesus - 81/10 = 8.1
De Bruyne - 91/11 = 8.27

Shots on Target per Goal
Aguero - 28/16 = 1.75
Ings - 32/18 = 1.78
Vardy - 38/21 = 1.81
Mane - 31/16 = 1.94
Aubameyang - 37/19 = 1.95
Sterling - 27/13 = 2.08
Kane - 28/13 - 2.15
Martial - 35/15 = 2.33
Wood - 26/11 = 2.36
Rashford - 37/15 = 2.47
De Bruyne - 28/11 - 2.55
Ayew - 23/9 = 2.56
Jimenez - 39/15 = 2.6
Calvert-Lewin - 34/13 = 2.62
Richarlison - 30/11 = 2.73
Salah - 47/17 = 2.76
Abraham - 13/36 = 2.77
Willian - 25/9 = 2.78
Pukki - 34/11 = 3.09
Jesus - 40/10 = 4.

Minutes per Shot
Aguero - 1460/76 = 19.2
Jesus - 1644/81 = 20.3
Salah - 2520/108 = 23.3
Jimenez - 2820/108 = 26.1
Abraham - 2059/78 = 26.4
Rashford - 2210/83 = 26.6
De Bruyne 2466/91 = 27.1
Sterling - 2343/81 = 28.9
Calvert-Lewin - 2212/75 = 29.5
Ings - 2365/78 = 30.3
Kane - 2050/66 = 31.1
Martial - 2201/69 = 31.9
Richarlison - 2704/81 = 33.4
Aubameyang - 2747/82 = 33.5
Pukki - 2654/76 = 34.9
Willian - 2276/65 = 35
Vardy - 2584/69 = 37.5
Mane - 2434/65 = 37.5
Wood - 2090/53 = 39.4
Ayew - 2747/52 = 52.8

Minutes per Shots on Target
Jesus - 1644/40 = 41.1
Aguero - 1460/28 = 52.1
Salah - 2520/47 = 53.6
Abraham - 2059/36 = 57.2
Rashford - 2210/37 = 59.7
Martial - 2201/35 = 62.9
Calvert-Lewin - 2212/34 = 65.1
Vardy - 2584/38 = 68
Jimenez - 2820/39 = 72.3
Kane - 2050/28 = 73.2
Ings - 2365/32 = 73.9
Aubameyang - 2747/37 = 74.2
Pukki - 2654/34 = 78.1
Mane - 2434/31 = 78.5
Wood - 2090/26 = 80.4
Sterling - 2343/27 = 86.8
De Bruyne - 2466/28 = 88.1
Richarlison - 2704/30 = 90.1
Willian - 2276/25 = 91
Ayew - 2747/23 = 119.4

Jesus has the second fewest minutes, but the second most shots on target. He is 3rd for shot accuracy, showing that he regularly hits the target and his chances are good enough for him to do so. So from that, you'd think lots of goals?

Well, he comes in second lowest in overall conversion rate, at 12.4%. It's low, but there are other more potent strikers like Jimenez, whose rate is not much better, so you're thinking, maybe it's quality of chance or some other factor.

Then you look at shots on target conversion rate, and he's suddenly bottom and at least 11% behind every other striker apart from Pukki, who plays in a Norwich team that has capitulated in the second half of the season towards relegation. This suddenly makes it clear where a striker who has a high shot accuracy and lots of shots on target doesn't score any goals.

It's backed up by switching the conversion rate into number of shots needed to score. Jesus is second bottom overall and bottom for shots on target, as you can see he is taking twice as many as would be considered good. Even more starkly, Jesus and Aguero have shots more frequently than any of the top 20, and Jesus is the only player to have a shot on target in every single half on average.

What does this show? That ultimately Jesus gets in good positions, gets plenty of chances, hits the target, but doesn't score. That's why he's so frustrating, whereas Raheem misses the target far more often but when he does hit the target, his scoring rate is good. Jesus has a fundamental flaw that means he's not prolific.

At Jesus rate of shots on target, if he'd had Jimenez playing time of 2,820 minutes, he'd have had 68 shots on target. At his shots on target conversion rate, he'd have scored 17 goals. With the same number of shots on target, Sergio would have 38 goals, Vardy 37 and Calvert-Lewin 25.

In fact if Aguero and Vardy had had Jesus 40 shots on target he'd have 22 goals and Ayew would have 17 goals.

If Vardy had had Jesus conversion rate, he'd have only 9 league goals and Aguero would have 7.

So, for all the talk, it all boils down to a man with the best chances, the most frequent chances, the ability to hit the target but the complete inability to hit the back of the net. That's why people are so frustrated, and that's why they're looking at alternatives.

1- Jesus has just turned 23

2- If you judge Jesus only on goals you’re missing out his actual attributes

3- you can see how few minutes he’s played but that doesn’t take into account the reality of the situation - 20 mins here, 30 mins there, start every 3/4 games etc.

4- Outside of Agüero none of those other players play against 10 man defences with packed areas. This is where Agüero is immense but try finding another one of those.

I despair at the need to lump on a player who we paid an extremely small fee for, who was born in 1997 and who is the hardest working player in the team. Will he ever be a deadly finisher? Probably not but don’t let that overlook the positives.
 
1- Jesus has just turned 23

2- If you judge Jesus only on goals you’re missing out his actual attributes

3- you can see how few minutes he’s played but that doesn’t take into account the reality of the situation - 20 mins here, 30 mins there, start every 3/4 games etc.

4- Outside of Agüero none of those other players play against 10 man defences with packed areas. This is where Agüero is immense but try finding another one of those.

I despair at the need to lump on a player who we paid an extremely small fee for, who was born in 1997 and who is the hardest working player in the team. Will he ever be a deadly finisher? Probably not but don’t let that overlook the positives.

1. Wow - Does he want a cake?
2. You mean - if you take out the striker's core required attribute which is scoring goals?
3. It takes into account that apart from Kun he still gets the most chances and most shots on target for those minutes.
4. He gets the most shots on target for his minutes, so clearly it's not that packed or he wouldn't be able to get them away.
5. Yeah, £27m is change and it's not like we're nearly 27 points behind our nearest rivals. Wow, 1997 - same year Titanic was released. That started off promisingly before sinking too. I'm not going to ignore the reality just because bless him, he's a professional footballer and a fully grown adult who's been here three and a half years so he works hard.
 
It's been a 2 season slump.
and seeing how you want to ignore the point, I've summed it up.
When selfish Sterling and Mahrez start together in the Prem. we are a woeful 8-5-1
25 points from a possible 42, 17 dropped points! Gabe had two goals and in 2x more starts Aguero only had 5.
So as I correctly predicted Sunday, and you wrongly shrugged off, no striker is going to thrive in that formation,
when those two want to be the center of attention.
 
and seeing how you want to ignore the point, I've summed it up.
When selfish Sterling and Mahrez start together in the Prem. we are a woeful 8-5-1
25 points from a possible 42, 17 dropped points! Gabe had two goals and in 2x more starts Aguero only had 5.
So as I correctly predicted Sunday, and you wrongly shrugged off, no striker is going to thrive in that formation,
when those two want to be the center of attention.

I agree we're not as good, not because they're selfish but because we're half the side with inverted wingers instead of proper ones.

Jesus has 17 league goals in 2 years, the majority coming in December and January and against 5 teams (Everton, Burnley, West Ham, Leicester and Palace), and as I've shown he gets the chances and he hits the target. Aguero converts 57%, he converts 25% and that's when they've had a good enough chance to hit the target. The argument isn't that he needs to be at 50%, even if he was back at 17/18 levels (around 38%) he'd have half a dozen more goals and that can make a huge difference.

So I can accept we're not as good a side with Sterling and Mahrez, but when it comes to good chances, which both Aguero and Jesus get plenty of, Gabby isn't doing enough in the past 2 seasons by his own previous standards. That's on him.
 
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