Expected Goals - useful or a load of old nonsense?

[Nightmare Walking]

Its a load of nonesense. The only stats that matter is goals scored or goals conceded. There is no such thing as an expected goal.

 

[Northblue]

Thanks for the responses. The link that Pablo provided was very interesting. I have replicated part of a table from there with the xg rating of each City player

1 Ederson GK 0.00
2 João Cancelo 0.04
3 Aymeric Laporte 0.11
4 Eric Garcia DC 0.00
5 Oleksandr Zinchenko 0.02
6 Fernandinho MC 0.05
7 Bernardo Silva 0.22
8 David Silva MC 0.84
9 Riyad Mahrez 0.32
10 Gabriel Jesus 1.52
11 Raheem Sterling 0.12
12 Kevin De Bruyne Sub 0.18
13 Phil Foden Sub 0.00

Looking at this Sterling and Mahrez were not doing well so their substitutions were a good move?

From my recollection of the match Dave had better chances than Jesus but the stats suggest otherwise - maybe Jesus had more half chances?

I am surprised by Fern's low score as he came very close to scoring when he hit the post - I assume that it was a very difficult chance.

I will have a look at some other match stats to see if I can relate them to my recollections.

The stats are calculated on players positions on the field at the time. So while fern hit the post, as I remember it was from outside the box with a fair few Southampton defenders between him and the net. The stats basically saying that (if that was his only chance of the game) he’d be expected to score once if he took that shot 20 times - the stat would stay the same if he spooned it into row z

 

[BimboBob]

It's another way to try and engage the modern football armchair fan without actually adding anything to the game.

 

[jimharri]

I fail to see any benefit to it. If it counted for anything, we wouldn't be 20-odd points behind Liverpool.

 

[Vienna_70]

I fail to see any benefit to it. If it counted for anything, we wouldn't be 20-odd points behind Liverpool.

Exactly.

Teams don’t gain any points for expected goals; only for actual ones.

 

[greasedupdeafguy]

I remember Michael Cox backing us to win the league this season on a podcast as Liverpool apparently had a much lower 'expected goal' average compared to us last season lol.

 

[Vienna_70]

I remember Michael Cox backing us to win the league this season on a podcast as Liverpool apparently had a much lower 'expected goal' average compared to us last season lol.

A case of Michael Cox it up?

 

[Vialli98]

Its a load of nonesense. The only stats that matter is goals scored or goals conceded. There is no such thing as an expected goal.

Yes, when we're discussing factual things like who won or lost, those stats are the only stats that matter. When you start discussing things like how did we play, which player performed particularly good or bad etc then some of these advances stats can be useful.

For example, someone told me that Chelsea xGC this season is on par with Liverpool yet we've conceded 19 more goals than them. That tells me we tend to defend pretty well as a team but we somehow still leak lots of goals. So what gives? I then looked up Kepa's save %, which happens to be the worst in % in the league and you start to get a picture of what Chelsea's biggest weakness is.

Without the xGC stats, I'd find it pretty easy to want to bin our entire back 5 because my perception is impacted by the sheer number of goals we leak. With them, I have concluded that we would be comfortably a top 3 team if we just had a really average keeper, might even push City for 2nd if we had a genuine great keeper.

 

[Nightmare Walking]

Yes, when we're discussing factual things like who won or lost, those stats are the only stats that matter. When you start discussing things like how did we play, which player performed particularly good or bad etc then some of these advances stats can be useful.

For example, someone told me that Chelsea xGC this season is on par with Liverpool yet we've conceded 19 more goals than them. That tells me we tend to defend pretty well as a team but we somehow still leak lots of goals. So what gives? I then looked up Kepa's save %, which happens to be the worst in % in the league and you start to get a picture of what Chelsea's biggest weakness is.

Without the xGC stats, I'd find it pretty easy to want to bin our entire back 5 because my perception is impacted by the sheer number of goals we leak. With them, I have concluded that we would be comfortably a top 3 team if we just had a really average keeper, might even push City for 2nd if we had a genuine great keeper.

Your eyes can tell you how your defence and attack is playing, why do you need a stat?

 

[jamesha]

Yes, when we're discussing factual things like who won or lost, those stats are the only stats that matter. When you start discussing things like how did we play, which player performed particularly good or bad etc then some of these advances stats can be useful.

For example, someone told me that Chelsea xGC this season is on par with Liverpool yet we've conceded 19 more goals than them. That tells me we tend to defend pretty well as a team but we somehow still leak lots of goals. So what gives? I then looked up Kepa's save %, which happens to be the worst in % in the league and you start to get a picture of what Chelsea's biggest weakness is.

Without the xGC stats, I'd find it pretty easy to want to bin our entire back 5 because my perception is impacted by the sheer number of goals we leak. With them, I have concluded that we would be comfortably a top 3 team if we just had a really average keeper, might even push City for 2nd if we had a genuine great keeper.

Vialli98 that is an interesting post. Was Kepa any better last year? - I think everybody was shocked by his behaviour in the final against us - did that lead to a decline?