COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[somapop]

Here it is...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episo...-jeremy-farrar-director-of-the-wellcome-trust

 

[True_Blue69]

The antibody data is very hard to read as it is not really very high anywhere. But then we don't know how many fight it off in other ways. Then there are the T cell questions. Or if immunity is short lived.

New York State is the best place to watch. Their epidemic matched the UK quite closely and its quieter mainland state and large urban island areas are akin to the densely packed island nation we are with millions crammed into a small space but more rural spaces surrounding them.

They peaked sharply like we did around 10 April and then tailed off like we did They are running at about 700 cases a day and 9 deaths now. Like we are.

32,431 died there so far.

If they get a second wave - start to worry.

I know there is a lot of criticism over the track and trace app etc. but we do seem to be detecting these small outbreaks and taking action quickly.

I also think that the virus may be naturally weakening as those with the strongest strain are ill and can't leave their house to spread, whereas those with the weaker strain are the ones spreading. Previous epidemics haven't spread like this one as the host is that ill they are not in a position to spread it.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Saw something on the news that we were going to start doing a US style briefings

Oh right.
I'd rather they didn't. Just give a daily written press announcement to news organisations.

 

[Healdplace]

TrueBlue I share your optimism on that assessment. But am not getting carried away as other scenarios are possible too.

This might indeed be a virus that in effect culls a large number of the most susceptible up front and then tails off when fewer remain and/or those who do are staying fully locked down.

I guess we will find out soon enough. And its hard to recall that a virus is in effect a living thing attempting to co exist with us and is not planning to kill us all off. That in effect is an accident of nature and has zero benefit to the successful survival of the virus. Possibly why many viruses tend to modify to less virulent as it helps them replicate to infect but not kill.

 

[twosips]

I wonder if our light touch lockdown may turn out to have been the best course of action in the long run. These places locked down early and hard so won't have as many people with antibodies.

Alternatively, these hard lockdown places might end up holding out just as vaccines arrive, meaning they'll never reach those death numbers. Treatment is also considerably better now, so they'll also be much more adept at treating any rises compared to how we were in March. We also could be lumbered with hundreds of thousands who have survived but have long term effects. I guess they'll likely miss out on that too if vaccines start arrive, with treatment also better.

I can't really see any strong reason why front loading deaths was a good idea tbh, especially given it was all just based off a guess about long term immunity, and we had no idea about the effects on long term health of those who survived. However, the idea that treatments, with time, would improve was never a guess, thus improving future treatments ahead of any potential increase, and as a result less deaths - so i always felt it made sense to give scientists that time personally...not juts go 'fuck it' and let it hit the populace. If you're gonna do that, surely do it when we know a lot more about the disease. Like now!

The way it feels to me is that places like the UK have been the test subjects. Getting all the deaths. A perfect place to test treatments. Still had a huge economic crash too. Others have locked down harder, had a lot less deaths, but now know how to treat this fucker after watching us take the full hit of it all. Yes their economies are fucked too, but at least they've not got tens of thousands dead as well, with loads more ill long term.

 

[ganganvince]

Saw something on the news that we were going to start doing a US style briefings

Posted it earlier today October they reckon

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/29/media/downing-street-briefing-televised/index.html

 

[kaz7]

I know there is a lot of criticism over the track and trace app etc. but we do seem to be detecting these small outbreaks and taking action quickly.

I also think that the virus may be naturally weakening as those with the strongest strain are ill and can't leave their house to spread, whereas those with the weaker strain are the ones spreading. Previous epidemics haven't spread like this one as the host is that ill they are not in a position to spread it.

It is not weakening,it has been stopped a bit by lockdowns,we know better now to treat it as well,beware the next wave

 

[kaz7]

Posted it earlier today October they reckon

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/29/media/downing-street-briefing-televised/index.html

Thanks,i am not a fan having watched the American one most nights,they won't be able to answer most of the questions,we need ministers for policy stuff

 

[ganganvince]

Thanks,i am not a fan having watched the American one most nights,they won't be able to answer most of the questions,we need ministers for policy stuff

Thought what we had was good but was destroyed by the press when you watch the Scottish ones questions are sensible and on the whole relevant

 

[Ban-jani]

I wonder if our light touch lockdown may turn out to have been the best course of action in the long run. These places locked down early and hard so won't have as many people with antibodies.

It’s becoming more and more apparent the Swedes got it right.

Social distancing in place and the vulnerable must shelter but the young and healthy have developed immunity between many of them.

Infection rates are very high and their initial death per capita was worrying but this is now coming down steadily and they haven’t shut anything.

They will likely remain around 5,000-8,000 deaths, which as sad as that is, will be begrudgingly seen as a level of success but the end of this sorry state of affairs.