COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

Of Scottish infections announced today

162 are in people aged 65+
Including 39 in people aged 85+

52 are in children aged under 15
Including 19 in children aged under 5

224 in people aged 15-24

757 in people aged 25-64

Almost the same as N Ireland now and well up as a percentage on what it was in August when mostly the young were catching it and it was not seeping through to the older population.

That happened firsrt in Northern Ireland and has now spread everywhere.

This is clrearly the primary reason deaths are now escalating.

Yet still no proper messaging or guidance to the older ones with underlying problems.

My friend who is in her 80s and has serious asthma has been advised she can now go out to shops and to have doctors appointments and seems to have been given the impression it is now safer than it was.

I really do not get what is happening about this at all as it is surely obvious the vulnerable now need more protection than ever as the NHS risks being overwhelmed across winter. Not less as the advice given and ending of food deliveries etc has made them believe.

She told me earlier she went to the supermarket struggling to wear a mask (from which she is exempt because of her condition but the taxi would not take her without). In the supermarket almost nobody else was wearing a mask.

 

[worsleyweb]

Attempting to return to normality now will fail.

Probably 50 million people will fall sick and a quarter of a million will die.

Our hospitals will be full of covid patients for months.

Whatever you call this scenario, "normality" it is not.

or 40 million wont even know they have had it.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Good to see cases and deaths both slightly down on yesterday's figures up here, especially considering Friday is normally a day where they would rise. Far too early to make any real opinion on that, but trying to find slight positives on a bleak subject.

 

[worsleyweb]

So UK hospital death numbers today are 98 - at least under 100 for first time in a few days.

Last week the number was 64. Which became 87 in the all settings later.

Cases for the three nations today (with England to come) total 3474 v 3092 last week. That at least is not a major rise week to week.

So a little good news.

The methods are keeping it stable / keeping some semblance of normality in the economy until hopefully a vaccine arrives hopefully within 3 months. In spite of all the bluster the impossible balancing act is being managed well.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Bit of a broad brush statement as I believe anyone catching it is at risk of death, are they not?

Anyone who didn’t wake up dead this morning is at risk of death today though.

 

[ganganvince]

Men from African, Caribbean and Bangladeshi ethnic backgrounds have higher rates of death involving coronavirus than any other ethnic group in England and Wales, new data shows.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said rates have exceeded 250 per 100,000 for those groups.

Coronavirus: Black men have higher coronavirus death rate than anyone else in England and Wales

White men and women have the lowest coronavirus-mortality rates of any ethnic group, other than Chinese men.

news.sky.com

Lock all BAM people away ??

And diabetics

 

[artfuldodger]

Whether you think Lancs should be in Tier 3 or not, I think this sounds like bullying

Lancashire council leaders 'bullied' into going into tier 3​

Lancashire was "bullied" by the government into going into the highest Covid alert level, three council leaders from the county have claimed.
In a joint statement, Matthew Brown and Mohammad Iqbal, leaders of Preston City Council and Pendle Council respectively, said the prime minister's officials, led by Sir Ed Lister, were "unwilling to listen to any evidence" and did not present a plan on how the government's proposals would control the virus.
They said schools, retail, the workplace and a minority of non-compliant individuals were behind the majority of coronavirus transmission, but officials told them these and other areas were "off-limits" and "non-negotiable".
"Throughout the negotiations, government officials were only interested in the politics and threatened any district leader who did not fall into line with 10 Downing Street's threats to accept tier three would suffer an imposition of tier three and that their borough 'would become an island' that would receive much less in funding and resource."
Paul Foster, leader of South Ribble Council, echoed the views, describing the discussions as a "complete shambles".

 

[kaz7]

And diabetics

Lots of them are diabetic and overweight , i posted it to stress that the " vulnerable" include half of public sector workers , the country would collapse if we locked them all away

 

[Chippy_boy]

Losing your job/livelihood will also lead to death,as it already has for many.

Yeah but how many? If through our actions we end up with pervasive infection across the (say) under 55's, I cannot see how we could possibly keep it out of the older age groups with people relying on Tesco's deliveries, care worker visits, family visits etc. And if we get pervasive infections in the older age groups we could see 10's of thousands dying, maybe 100,000. It could be truly horrific.

In short, it would be a reckless experiment with no guarantee of success. And incidentally, you don't factor in how the people over say 55 would react and how many suicides etc it would lead to amongst those effectively isolated for months on end.

I just don't see you proposal as being viable myself mate, but like you say there are no easy answers.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I sense your frustration mate, and we all have frustration with this in some way or another. However, here is the age distribution of the COVID-19 deaths in the US up until earlier this month. (I couldn't find the UK data to hand, so this will have to do).

View attachment 3902

So we lock up the 87 year olds. OK. What about those 75 and over? That would not have done anything to prevent the 44,000 deaths of people between 65 and 74. So we lock them up too. There's still another 40,000+ people under 45 who have died of this. That's 20% of the total. You'd probably have to include the 45 and overs if you wanted to make it "safe".

Where do you realistically draw the line?

You just need to give people the facts and let them decide what they’re going to do. Biggest risk of death is age, then it’s age plus being poorer, then it’s age, being poorer and having co-morbidities.
Some of the worse conditions to have are: cancer, chronic kidney disease, COPD, being a solid organ transplant recipient, diabetes, being fat and smoking fags. Dementia is often listed on the death certificates as a contributory cause.

People need to consider how many of the above apply to them and work out their level of risk before deciding on going out.
If you’re under 70, aren’t enormous, don’t smoke and don’t have any of the conditions I’ve listed, you’ll probably be ok going out.

Of course, if you’re 85 and got lots of those things you were at enormous risk before coronavirus but your death wouldn’t have made the news..