COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Its bugger all to do with that. Where as you thrive on the misery of all this i actually thrive on any positive.
I social distance, i mask up when required, i sanitise my hands repeatedly, im not in denial with all this shit but if its ok with you ill just hit on the good news, the positive bits and sometimes try and forget its all going on rather than flood my brain with negative shit.
I thrive on proper data and not latch onto every loon telling lies to cheer people up , i have worked in health and big pharma for so long that i deal in science and scientific evidence and not false hope , i think what i post is beyond you
 
If the hospital data is the driving factor there is no question thw NW is rising the fastest. A 46% increase over the past 7 days in patient numbers. Most other areas in the past week have only risen around 33% in that week.

If it is people on ventilators that are the concern - being the most likely to have restricted capacity and also to die -you can frame it differently As in that week the NW has only risen by 29 to 161 - so in effect about a 22% rise. Wheras London has gone from 57 to 86 - which is over a 50% rise. So which has the biggest crisis?

And if you look at the situation in the South West - Devon and Cornwall - the area Boris singled out as being so low in numbers that it would be unfair to have a national circuit breaker penalising them - their ventilated Covid patients have risen in the same 7 days from 8 to 21 - a rise of over 150%. Patients also went up from 94 to 161 in this area - the biggest increase week to week in the UK in percentage term of nearly 70%.

I am not suggesting this proves that the SW should be locked down and the NW should not.Of course not. As the actual numbers are small and distorting the perception and local capacity are the big issues that determine meaning and consequent action.

All I am saying is that numbers can be used to tell you what the person using them wants you to believe. And you may well not realise that is happening. Indeed often the journalist or the politician doing it has no idea they are doing it either.
They only use Ventilators for the most serious cases now. Indeed putting a frail person on a ventilator pretty much kills them. PAP and CPAP are the main tools of choice in this epidemic
(Source: My daughter who is a Registrar.)
 
It is EXACTLY EQUIVALENT to drinking and driving.
That's my feeling.

And yet the police's general response to various occurrences of COVID rule-breaking, has been to pop round and gently remind, have a word, explain. All that sort of shite.

Can you imagine being stopped by the cops whilst driving home from the pub after 4 pints and the officer just "having a word" and reminding you of the rules before letting you drive off?

It beggars belief we are not throwing the book at people IMO. Yet again yesterday I saw a bloke and his Mrs swanning around DFS with no mask on and the staff didn't say a bloody thing.
 
80 all settings deaths.

18,804 cases - 1822 up on yesterday.

From 280, 884 pillar 1 & 2 tests - about 4300 up on yesterday.
 
If they lock Manchester down, I really hope they keep the gyms open like in Lancashire.

I'm sure I don't speak for myself but the gym is a place where I can just unwind and not think about this shitshow.
There are thousands who are in the same boat,for some,it's life affecting.

I'm very lucky that i have my own gym at home,but,during the lockdown,i would without doubt have lost the plot without it.

We don't need that again,as i've previously said (and while those who do not train or need the escape will wonder what the fuss is about) closing gyms,especially independants,will cause far more harm than good.
 
At least in about a months time we will know who got the argument over circuit break nationwide v local lockdowns right. When we see what happens in N Ireland and Wales.

Trouble is if England has called this wrong by then it may mean not a two/three week circuit break but one across much of the Winter given how much harder it will be to stop a runaway train in England than in two comparatively small nations. And they will also likely say England being wide open made the impact in Wales reduced as people will be travelling across the border day to day.

Let's hope both are equally effective.
Shutting down the SW, S, SE, and E is complete and utter stupidity unless tier 1 restrictions have zero effect.
 
This graph shows the positive cases per 100,000 people per Lower Tier Local Authority (33 of them in the NW 'region'). I have put them into 4 broad areas (sorry Cheshire is in with Gtr Manchester). It is a 7 day rolling window.

These are cases by date of sample, not date reported. They are data up to yesterday, with 4 further days knocked off due to (highly probable) incompleteness. The colour indicates the actual number of cases cumulative.

covid_rates.png

This next graph is the Rate Of Change of those curves above. Where the line is above 0, you are still getting increasing cases per 100,000 in a seven day window but if it is tending towards zero, that rate of change is falling (i.e. heading towards plateau). Where the line is below 0 you are getting declining number of cases compared to previous data. Flat lines are plateaued, around any number.




covid_rateofchange.png
 
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More evidence of the collateral health damage that has occurred through this epidemic is emerging all the time.

  • In England, the number of deaths in private homes registered between 28 December 2019 and 11 September 2020 was 108,842; this was 25,472 deaths more than the five-year average for the same period, although almost ALL have occurred since March 27th.

  • Excess deaths in private homes in England and Wales were mostly deaths NOT involving the coronavirus (COVID-19).
  • Leading causes, for men, were:
  • Ischaemic Heart Disease
  • Malignant neoplasms of trachea, bronchus and lung
  • Malignant neoplasm of the prostate
  • Chronic respiratory disease
  • Malignant neoplasms of the colon, sigmoid, rectum and anus.

  • For Women
  • Ischaemic heart disease
  • Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease
  • Malignant neoplasms of trachea, bronchus and lung
  • Malignant neoplasm of the breast
  • Chronic respiratory disease
Lots more information here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...registeredfrom28december2019to11september2020
Get this fucking country open again, already
 
Phase 3 trials are blinded.

*Nobody* knows how well they are going, not even those running the trial, in terms of efficacy.

The only indication could be patient recruitment numbers, but that only tells you if they're progressing, not if they're working.
So how can the experts be confident about a vaccine being available soon?
Is it just an optimistic guess on the numbers of different vaccines being tested (142 with 11 at stage 3 trials) assuming statistically at least one will work?
 
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