Len Rum
Well-Known Member
Valance now saying effective vacine unlikely before spring.I'm not sure exactly how confident different experts are, I get differing impressions from different people.
I think confidence is based more on the results of early trials than just numbers. Early trials for all of the vaccines now in phase 3 showed good activation of the immune response. The phase 3 trials read out based on actual efficacy - how much lower infections are on the vaccine. Just having an immune response doesn't guarantee you actually stop infections. And they also test safety.
The good thing about the large number of vaccines is that many of them are based on different principles - so if there's some odd reason why one doesn't work, or isn't safe, there's a good chance it won't apply across the board.
But there's an iron law of development - that until the data reads out, you don't know.
Once again mixed messaging from the experts.