Totally agree. It's barking.if travel had been shut down at the start of last February we wouldn't have had half the problems we had/have. How to lose the benefits of being an Island.Absolutely spot in. It still amazes me how easy it is for people to travel throughout the world. Complaining about the financial cost of shutting all borders is crazy when we see the damage this thing is doing and how it's dragging out. Should have been done last January, and if not then definitely by March. Can't believe so much free travel is still allowed 10 months down the line.
I think you make an implicit assumption that the epidemic will remain constant over time. My expectation is that R(t) falls with vaccination but we don't know the relation exactly, we can only have an expectation that it should fall.I've said before that you are far too optimistic, and I'll stick by that.
I (late 50's) probably won't get the first vaccine until late March, the second mid-April, so early May is the earliest I'll be trusting anything, if I don't get it in the mean time, which I intend to do my very best to avoid.
That's effectively out of my hands, as my missus works in a busy dentist 3 days a week, and I still have to go into a very poorly ventilated (underground), and not very well socially distanced office, full of younger (and in some cases irresponsible) people who travel from all over the country to work for 7 days at a time.
Whitty will keep the breaks on if he can, I'm not convinced he'll be able too, largely because of views like yours, and much worse, that we need to open ASAP, we do, but ASAP to me is later than yours.
We've rushed before, but never to do the right thing like "close down", every time we have rushed to open up it's made matters worse eventually, not trying to pick an argument, just trying to stay realistic, we should all stay realistic, but each to their own I guess.
1248. It was on BBC news about 10 mins ago.So did they ever release the numbers for yesterday?
Haven't seen anything on the BBC or my local news websites.
Without opening the link, this sounds like the study that was covered by BBC. Infectious is not binary hence different viruses, indeed different strains have different R valuesNot sure if covered.
A reinfection survey in the UK. 21k health care professionals who were infected in the 1st wave tested in the 2nd wave
Shows that natural immunity is 83% effective. meaning some of the vaccines are more effective than natural immunity.
0.66% of those 21k were reinfected. of those who were reinfected has less severe symptoms than 1st time around. But the big part of this is, they were still infectious. I assume that means that vaccinated people will also be infectious.
Yes at 10:40 pm.So did they ever release the numbers for yesterday?
Haven't seen anything on the BBC or my local news websites.
That will be exceptionally good. ~3.5M a week means most of the adult population will be done 3-4 months from now.Rejoice. 500k vaccinations a day by the end of next week according to the Times.