Coronavirus (2021) thread

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If so many people have ignored the rules, can you explain how we have gone from 70,000 cases per day, to just 5,000 cases ? The ONLY reason for that is people following the rules, yes there are idiots, but the vast majority are doing/have done the right thing.

It's not vaccinations either, I know of someone who was vaccinated with both jabs by early January, yet she caught covid late Feb and has since passed away in hospital, she caught it in hospital after a previous few days there for something else, she was allowed home then tested positive having not been out otherwise.
Not sure your second paragraph proves anything other than the vaccine is not 100% effective and sadly it will still cause serious illness or death to a small number of people. But your story has no bearing on whether the vaccine is having an impact on the spread of the virus among the overall population.
 
Not sure your second paragraph proves anything other than the vaccine is not 100% effective and sadly it will still cause serious illness or death to a small number of people.
I didn't say it did, was just commenting on someone I know of, but vaccinations is not the reason for the decline in cases, that is because most people have followed the rules.

If we opened up everything again tomorrow, in 5 weeks time we'd be rapidly heading back to where we were, vaccinations maybe keeping the numbers down a bit, especially hospitalisations and deaths, but there is little evidence yet that it prevents cases.
 
Leicester is the only place in the UK whose numbers went UP and UP after the peak of the first wave in April 2020.

They plunged elsewhere through May to very low levels across Summer but in late June Leicester was higher than they ever were in March and April.

As a result they became the first place in the UK to go into special measures and starting in late June are the only place to be in them longer than the NW.

These measures became the tier system restrictions when they were widened to Greater Manchester a month or so later and across the North West in early autumn.

I posted several times last Summer about the oddity of Leicester and why we needed to understand how it had taken such a path out of step with most of the UK.

Not sure any such study ever happened. If it did I never saw it.

However, as of today Leicester is back where it started - top of the tree as the most infected borough in England in the five day weekly pop score measures.

It is happily falling and at a very modest level to be 'top' - nowhere near where it was when top before.

Wk to wk its Pop has fallen 359 - 271 - 257 - 235 - TO 166 today.

Most of GM was higher than that 2 weeks ago to put it in context.

So it is not the numbers as such just the fact that it has consistently been top of the Covid tree even at times when other places were not - APART from the first few weeks of the pandemic a year ago when it had a better March and April than much of the UK.

This seems a profile from which we ought to be able to learn a lot and I would have hoped some serious study into it might have been made. Who knows it might give us new clues as to what to do right or inadvertently doing wrong.
 
If so many people have ignored the rules, can you explain how we have gone from 70,000 cases per day, to just 5,000 cases ? The ONLY reason for that is people following the rules, yes there are idiots, but the vast majority are doing/have done the right thing.

It's not vaccinations either, I know of someone who was vaccinated with both jabs by early January, yet she caught covid late Feb and has since passed away in hospital, she caught it in hospital after a previous few days there for something else, she was allowed home then tested positive having not been out otherwise.
1. Vaccination of those at risk.
2. 60% of each schools kids at home
3. Non essential shops closed.
4. Test and trace actually working since mid December.
5. Major role out of LF Tests.
6. Supermarkets doing must better over the last month.
7. Most people following the rules.
 
Leicester is the only place in the UK whose numbers went UP and UP after the peak of the first wave in April 2020.

They plunged elsewhere through May to very low levels across Summer but in late June Leicester was higher than they ever were in March and April.

As a result they became the first place in the UK to go into special measures and starting in late June are the only place to be in them longer than the NW.

These measures became the tier system restrictions when they were widened to Greater Manchester a month or so later and across the North West in early autumn.

I posted several times last Summer about the oddity of Leicester and why we needed to understand how it had taken such a path out of step with most of the UK.

Not sure any such study ever happened. If it did I never saw it.

However, as of today Leicester is back where it started - top of the tree as the most infected borough in England in the five day weekly pop score measures.

It is happily falling and at a very modest level to be 'top' - nowhere near where it was when top before.

Wk to wk its Pop has fallen 359 - 271 - 257 - 235 - TO 166 today.

Most of GM was higher than that 2 weeks ago to put it in context.

So it is not the numbers as such just the fact that it has consistently been top of the Covid tree even at times when other places were not - APART from the first few weeks of the pandemic a year ago when it had a better March and April than much of the UK.

This seems a profile from which we ought to be able to learn a lot and I would have hoped some serious study into it might have been made. Who knows it might give us new clues as to what to do right or wring.
Many, many multi generational households mainly occupied by ethnic minorities.
Still high because older people in these minorities are not getting vaccinated to the same level as the rest of the community.
As an example elsewhere inTower Hamlets (London) as of Friday only had 14% of the population vaccinated.
 
1. Vaccination of those at risk.
2. 60% of each schools kids at home
3. Non essential shops closed.
4. Test and trace actually working since mid December.
5. Major role out of LF Tests.
6. Supermarkets doing must better over the last month.
7. Most people following the rules.
You might have the right list, but it's not in the right order, and at this stage there is little evidence that vaccinations prevents cases.

They do appear to be reducing hospitalisations and deaths in the more vulnerable, but it's early days, and the rapid decline in cases will also do that.
 
I didn't say it did, was just commenting on someone I know of, but vaccinations is not the reason for the decline in cases, that is because most people have followed the rules.

If we opened up everything again tomorrow, in 5 weeks time we'd be rapidly heading back to where we were, vaccinations maybe keeping the numbers down a bit, especially hospitalisations and deaths, but there is little evidence yet that it prevents cases.
You said "It's not vaccinations either" which is a fairly definitive statement. As you have subsequently said, we don't yet know for sure what effect vaccination is having on transmission but we also don't know enough to say it definitely isn't having an effect.
 
You said "It's not vaccinations either" which is a fairly definitive statement. As you have subsequently said, we don't yet know for sure what effect vaccination is having on transmission but we also don't know enough to say it definitely isn't having an effect.
My daughter's hospital hasn't had an 80+ patient admitted with Covid for 2 weeks now.
To suggest vaccinations are not working is balderdash.
 
I didn't say it did, was just commenting on someone I know of, but vaccinations is not the reason for the decline in cases, that is because most people have followed the rules.

If we opened up everything again tomorrow, in 5 weeks time we'd be rapidly heading back to where we were, vaccinations maybe keeping the numbers down a bit, especially hospitalisations and deaths, but there is little evidence yet that it prevents cases.
When we have vaccinated the adult population later in the year, if it transpires that doesn’t work, death will need to be accepted and a return to normality.
 
Scotland data:

1 death - was 0 last week

501 cases - was 386 last week

5.0% positivity - was 4.5% last week

138 Greater Glasgow, 99 Lanarkshire. 67 Lothian

654 patients (UP 26 in day) - was 824 last week

59 ventilated (down 2 in day) - was 71 last week


This is the first day in a while where nearly all the numbers have gone in the wrong direction week to week.

Though Monday hospital data often shows an increase and it will be no surprise of England does later too.

In mitigation in Scotland it was noted that Glasgow hospitals have aligned the way they defined a covid patient based on testing to bring it into alignment with the rest of the UK. They now do not insist on their own in hospital test but accept Lighthouse Labs external tests to classify as a Covid case too. The other Scottish health boards were already doing this.


Hmmm that is a tad on the concerning side. In caveat, people have pointed out that the figures released last Monday were unusually low for Monday reporting. It could be that last Monday was the anomaly, perhaps for reporting issues, and we're still actually following a downward trend? It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the week follows.
 
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