Coronavirus (2021) thread

[kevin horlocks wand]

I think the approach, minor opening (ie schools), then wait to see how it reacts, and 5 weeks is a good time, we'll effectively have another school break added in then as well, with Easter holidays, so by the next opening of things we should know clearly which way we are headed, then wait another 5 to see if it is still under control, at this point the more widespread opening can be delayed if necessary, though we are at the end of spring/start of summer at this point.

The numbers are still going in the right direction, with @ 15% decline in cases week on week, if we can keep that going with schools open it will be very positive, and by then the hospital/death numbers should be small, plus a lot more will be vaccinated.

The issue will always be the impatient, as tonight's journalist cretin questions show again, "shouldn't we open quicker PM ?".

agree. there will those who argue it should be quicker or slower but I think it’s about right.

he should stick to the plan. The plan has irs first test today of schools opening.

I like the 5 weekly opening up and then pause and see what happens.

hopefully a measured cautious approach will be the right one to end this bloody nightmare but Boris uses the word “irreversible “ quite a fair bit and that may bite him on the bum ultimately as who knows what will happen in the future with the virus.

and give the bloody nurses a decent pay rise .

 

[cleavers]

hopefully a measured cautious approach will be the right one to end this bloody nightmare but Boris uses the word “irreversible “ quite a fair bit and that may bite him on the bum ultimately as who knows what will happen in the future with the virus.

Yes that word annoys me too, as nothing is ever that.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

Not sure you've got over 10% chance from mate. The IFR seems to be about 0.5-1%. Not downplaying your fears, but your perceived risk value is miles off I think.

I hope your right but is that number just for the average not the most at risk? the most vulnerable did not have a 1% of dying of Covid. I think it was as high as 15% for the very elderly and those with comorbidities.

 

[M18CTID]

I hope your right but is that number just for the average not the most at risk? the most vulnerable did not have a 1% of dying of Covid. I think it was as high as 15% for the very elderly and those with comorbidities.

It was a lot higher for those categories, yes, but that will come down hugely now they’ve been vaccinated. Have you had the jab yourself yet?

 

[Tonster]

I hope your right but is that number just for the average not the most at risk? the most vulnerable did not have a 1% of dying of Covid. I think it was as high as 15% for the very elderly and those with comorbidities.

But the risk of dying once vaccinated for all categories/ages is virtually zero according to studies and now real world data. Significantly better efficacy than the annual flu vaccine and most didn’t stay in because of that. Life’s not risk free for anybody. I certainly feel a bit safer now I’ve had the jab.

 

[Healdplace]

Hospital data:

As not unusual numbers up a little on Monday (number is less than was added last Monday and every day after it fell as I expect it will from tomorrow too). And unlike last week ventilators went down not up.


UK total:


Patients 9514 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 29, 734 in 49 days)

Ventilators 1354 - it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 2723 in 43 days)



England only:-

Patients: Up in day 35 to 7847 v 10, 765 last week (This was up 102 on the day last week)

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 26, 489 in 49 days)

Ventilators: Down in day 37 to 1236 v 1658 last week (This was UP 28 on the day last week)

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 2500 in 43 days)



Regions:



Patient // Ventilators // change in past 24 hours and v last week


East up 35 to 781 v 1100 // up 1 to 108 v 136

London down 11 to 1551 v 2018 // down 14 to 379 v 511

Midlands down 30 to 1736 v 2458 // down 11 to 266 v 349

NE & Yorks up 17 to 1265 v 1742 // down 7 to 169 v 217

North West up 7 to 1218 v 1622 // down 4 to 145 v 196

South East up 11 to 983 v 1354 // down 2 to 127 v 191

South West up 16 to 313 v 471 // stays at 42 v 58

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

It was a lot higher for those categories, yes, but that will come down hugely now they’ve been vaccinated. Have you had the jab yourself yet?

I have yes, pfizer on Feb 9th.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

But the risk of dying once vaccinated for all categories/ages is virtually zero according to studies and now real world data. Significantly better efficacy than the annual flu vaccine and most didn’t stay in because of that. Life’s not risk free for anybody. I certainly feel a bit safer now I’ve had the jab.

Isn't the jab only affective for 90% though meaning 10% will still have the same risk which for me iirc was around 12%. Would truly love someone to assure me it's not btw, i'll hang on to everything you say haha.

 

[Tonster]

Isn't the jab only affective for 90% though meaning 10% will still have the same risk which for me iirc was around 12%. Would truly love someone to assure me it's not btw, i'll hang on to everything you say haha.

Pretty sure that’s the efficacy of getting the illness at all. Protection against serious illness (hospitalisation and death) is nearly 100%. For comparison flu vaccine efficacy varies each year but is much much lower (60% ish) and kills around 10k on average in UK every year. I think now you’ve got the vaccine you should try and relax, you’re as safe as you can be. Life needs to be worth living don’t it?

 

[twosips]

I hope your right but is that number just for the average not the most at risk? the most vulnerable did not have a 1% of dying of Covid. I think it was as high as 15% for the very elderly and those with comorbidities.

Sorry mate, I think I misunderstood your argument. I thought you were talking about kids going back to school and then parents etc being at risk or something. My bad! Yes, the risk is higher for those with comorbidities. Not always as high as 15% (often notably lower) though, and do bear in mind that most vulnerable should've been jabbed by now, which should drastically reduce risk factors.