Coronavirus (2021) thread

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The week to week England numbers are key right now

Yes indeed.

And they've defied any predictions for months, veering up and down without any consistent trend.

Two days isn't much to go on, but any down is better than up with current hospitalizations.

Hopefully boosters will make a difference on that front, regardless of case numbers.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL VENTILATOR NUMBERS

FRI / SAT / SUN / TODAY

746 / 728 / 745 / 776 - RISE OF 30



LAST WEEK NUMBERS OVER WEEKEND WERE


673 / 681 / 695 / 703 - RISE OF 30


MON to MON the weekly rise is UP 73

Last week the same number was a rise of 82.




REGIONAL CHANGES OVER WEEKEND FRI - TODAY & WEEK TO WEEK UP/DOWN

LONDON 153 - 156 (UP 3) OVER WK UP 22

MIDLANDS 153 - 163 (UP 10) OVER WK UP 24

NE & YORKS 129 - 145 (UP 16) OVER WK UP 27

AND

NORTH WEST 95 - 99 (UP 4) OVER WK UP 1


NW is still sub 100 - JUST! - and did better over the weeked than the other big regions.

BUT North West did have a lot of deaths too.


SMALLER REGIONS:-

EAST 82 - 84 (UP 2) OVER WK UP 12

SOUTH EAST 72 - 72 (FLAT) OVER WK UP 10

SOUTH WEST 62 - 58 (UP 12) OVER WK DOWN 2


As you can see the smaller southern regions are doing a little better than they were.
 
UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS

OVER THE WEEKEND CHANGE

HEADLINE:
ENGLAND ALMOST ENTIRELY THE REASON PATIENTS UP NEARLY 400 OVER WEEKEND TO OVER 8600 NOW IN HOSPITAL AND HEADING TOWARDS 1000 AGAIN ON VENTILATORS



PATIENTS




ENGLAND 6801 - UP 396

N IRELAND 348 - DOWN 10

SCOTLAND 902 - UP 8

WALES 585 - DOWN 12


TOTAL: 8636 (UP 382) Almost all in England



VENTILATORS


ENGLAND 776 - UP 30

N IRELAND 24 - LEVEL

SCOTLAND 57 - DOWN 3

WALES 59 - LEVEL


TOTAL: 916 (UP 27) All in England
 
GM SCORES TODAY



MANCHESTER 198 UP 27 on day DOWN 46 on week Total Cases 94,694 POP SCORE 17,039 (TODAY 35*) *LOWEST RISE TODAY

STOCKPORT 181 UP 9 on day DOWN 36 on week Total Cases 45,423 POP SCORE 15,440 (TODAY 62)

TAMESIDE 151 UP 51 on day DOWN 20 on week Total Cases 37,400 POP SCORE 16,467 (TODAY 66*) *HIGHEST RISE TODAY

WIGAN 141 UP 2 on day DOWN 79 on week Total Cases 54,979 POP SCORE 16,624 (TODAY 42)

TRAFFORD 135 DOWN 21 on day DOWN 71 on week Total Cases 37,491 POP SCORE 15,780 (TODAY 56)

ROCHDALE 124 UP 7 on day DOWN 22 on week Total Cases 37,952 POP SCORE 16,969 (TODAY 56)

BURY 119 UP 44 on day UP 7 on week Total Cases 31,066 POP SCORE 16,290 (TODAY 63)(Higher Pop Score than Stockport today due to much smaller population)

BOLTON 112 UP 22 on day DOWN 31 on week Total Cases 47,016 POP SCORE 16,311 (TODAY 39)

SALFORD 103 UP 10 on day DOWN 4 on week Total Cases 44,952 POP SCORE 17,112 (TODAY 39)

OLDHAM 84 DOWN 5 on day DOWN 8 on week Total Cases 41,427 POP SCORE 17,434 (TODAY 36)






Notes:

Stockport had a better day today - But Trafford was much better and so still gained 6 points back off Stockport and decreased its lead as the lowest across the pandemic to now just 340.

Rochdale will almost certainly become the fourth GM borough to join the 17K club tomorrow

In there - despite being best in GM again today Oldham has both the highest score on Zoe by far and the highest Pop Score across the pandemic - and 322 ahead of second best Salford.

The two with the HIGHEST cases across the pandemic have the two lowest case numbers today. Not a coincidence probably.
 
ENGLAND REGIONS TODAY V LAST WEEK


AS SUSPECTED THERE ARE SOME HUGE DROPS ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE RECENTLY VERY HIGH SCORING SOUTHERN REGIONS LEADING TO THE BIG UK DROP TODAY




EAST UP 273 TO 3891 V 4936 - DOWN 1045 IN WEEK - another huge drop here

LONDON DOWN 161 TO 3118 V 3806 - DOWN 688 IN WEEK - Another big drop

SOUTH EAST UP 8 TO 6258 V 6912 - DOWN 654 STILL THE HIGHEST REGION WAY ABOVE THE NORTH WEST

SOUTH WEST UP 31 TO 4863 V 5845 - DOWN 982 IN WEEK - ANOTHER SOUTHERN REGION STILL ABOVE THE NORTH WEST TODAY BUT WITH A BIG FALL




EAST MIDLANDS UP 339 TO 2897 V 3392 - DOWN 495 IN WEEK

WEST MIDLANDS UP 629 TO 3465 V 4206 - DOWN 741 IN WEEK



NORTH EAST DOWN 180 TO 1430 V 1668 - DOWN 238 IN WEEK

YORKSHIRE DOWN 121 TO 2904 V 3546 - DOWN 638 IN WEEK


AND

NORTH WEST UP 101 TO 3879 V 4527 - DOWN 648 IN WEEK


AS YOU SEE THE NORTHERN REGIONS FALLING TOO BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH



GREATER MANCHESTER 1348 - A RISE OF 146 WHEN NORTH WEST WAS UP JUST 101 - WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY NOT GOOD FOR GM AS IT SHOULD BE ABOUT 55.

PERCENTAGE OF NORTH WEST TOTAL:- 34.8%

YESTERDAY WAS 31.8% so bit of a rise but close to par expectations and tiny numbers anyway

LAST WEEK GM 1658 - SO A WEEKLY FALL OF 310 OF THE 648 WEEK TO WEEK IN NW - AGAIN OVER PAR - WHICH IS OF COURSE ALWAYS GOOD TO BE OVER PAR WITH A FALL

GM PERCENTAGE OF NW TOTAL OF 4527 :- WAS 36.6% LAST WEEK SO TODAY IS A GOOD FALL ON THAT

GOOD DAY AGAIN FOR BOTH GM AND THE NW
 
GM boroughs weekly past 7 day case totals:

Oldham 750, Bury 769, Bolton 826, Salford 845, Rochdale 1050, Tameside 1076, Wigan 1291, Trafford 1349, Stockport 1537, Manchester 1731


More changes as almost everyone fell - even Stockport.Very close now for lowest score between Oldham, Bury and Bolton who had a good day and slipped back ahead of Salford. These four are clear of the rest.

Trafford gained good ground on Stockport despite both falling. Now 188 below it. Manchester's lead over Stockport fell too as they dropped more week to week and Manchester's lead now just 194 (down 10 today).

Though doing better than was just as Zoe showed today Stockport still finding it hardest to drop very far.
 
GM WEEKLY POP SCORES

Remember low scores good - going down good - high scores bad - going up bad

BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // POP SCORE LAST WEEK // UP OR DOWN BY LAST 7 DAYS

Also WAS 4 weeks ago (up/down in past month)



BOLTON 287 // 301 // DOWN 14 WAS 250 (UP 37)

MANCHESTER 311 // 319 //DOWN 8 WAS 205 (UP 106)

OLDHAM 316 // 350 // DOWN 34 WAS 301 (UP 15)

SALFORD 322 // 382 // DOWN 60 WAS 292 (UP 30)

WIGAN 390 // 409 // DOWN 19 WAS 335 (UP 55)

BURY 403 // 388 // UP 15 WAS 251 (UP 152)

ROCHDALE 470 // 486 // DOWN 16 WAS 231 (UP 239)

TAMESIDE 473 // 484 // DOWN 15 WAS 484 (DOWN 11)

STOCKPORT 523 // 571 // DOWN 48 WAS 489 (UP 34)

TRAFFORD 567 // 649 // DOWN 82 WAS 443 (UP 124)



MOST PLACES FELL TODAY AND EVERYBODY BAR BURY IS NOW DOWN WEEK TO WEEK

Rochdale has easily the worst increase month to month and has taken that mantle from Trafford.

Trafford now only 44 ahead of Stockport. But all the gaps are narrowing.

Bolton still top - and well below the 300 barrier again now.

Trafford now below 600 too meaning the spread of boroughs is reducing. Which is good news.

And the top to bottom number is down to 280. It was over 600 when Trafford first went stratospheric followed by Stockport.
 
(spoiler alert) Unfortunately it's impossible to eliminate it so the endemic phase is as good as it gets. That's exactly what happened with Spanish Flu and that is still circulating >100 years later. However, the flip side of endemic is that it will come and go in mini-waves and immunity builds up in the population such that it becomes indistinguishable from all the other respiratory diseases that circulate and will fade into the memory - again, like Spanish Flu.
Flu has being circulating for hundrrds if not thousands of years. That said, a few, inc Russian Flu in 1890 are other viruses. (Russian flu is now genetically proven to have been another Coronavirus not flu.)
But first time round Flu would have been devastating. We have some immunity to it so each mutation is normally mild but dangerous in terms of secondary infections and pre-existing conditions . Every so often though, a mutation is bad or very bad: Spanish Flu, Asian Flu and Hong Kong flu were bad.
 
We've known about natural immunity forever, and the data is showing that it is more effective against covid than the vaccine, including being very robust against new variants. The immune system doesn't keep antibodies flowing forever once an infection has been cleared, we have cells that remember the infection so that antibodies can be made quickly if the infection occurs again. This is a much more efficient system and is such an established and well known fact that it's bizarre people are questioning it. I suspect someone is now advising the government who knows what he's talking about, which is why we're busy trying to get as many people as possible infected during the summer months whilst the virus is at it's weakest. This is the route out of this crisis.
But immunity isn't better. Its only equivalent to 2 jabs. Immunity may last longer, but we just don't really know. The only thing we do know is that jabs followed by Covid generate strong immunity.
I personally think the virus will start to fade after 120 days of an epidemic in an open society but we will have to wait and see.
 
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