Russian invasion of Ukraine

grunge said:
its not so much the "now" thats the issue, its the future. They are massively speeding up production of hardware which is the issue, that and the fact they have moved so far into a military economic standing that even if the war stopped tomorrow they couldn't just convert things back to where they were. they will keep making them to keep people in jobs for a long while.

Russia are not far ( months rathe than years ) from being able to launch 2000 Geran-2 drones a day( Shahed 's Russian name ). less than a year ago that production was about 5k a month.

Tanks are up to 150-200 a month. Unsure how many of those are brand new and how many are retrofitting skeletons.

Armoured personal carriers are up to nearly 200 a month now.

as of June, Iskander missiles up from 40 a month to 60-70, Kh-101 are up to 20-30 a month, 3M-14 Kalibr are 20-30 a month and 20 to 30 3M55 Onyx.

so while yeah, the idea that Russia can defeat Nato is still a joke. but the idea that in 5 years that they wont be ready to try is a hell of a risk to take.
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The human element is important too. They’ve lost over 1m men of fighting age. It’s all well and good having 200 tanks per month, but if you are scraping the barrel for men to operate them, it’s a relatively pointless exercise.
 
When it comes to the push, the EU and UK has some of the greatest minds when it comes to R&D in the military sector. I’m not one for pushing for war but if Russia want it with Europe, they are going to get it in spades.

Thank fuck that we understand that the US it out, now’s time for us to get on with it.
 
grunge said:
its not so much the "now" thats the issue, its the future. They are massively speeding up production of hardware which is the issue, that and the fact they have moved so far into a military economic standing that even if the war stopped tomorrow they couldn't just convert things back to where they were. they will keep making them to keep people in jobs for a long while.

Russia are not far ( months rathe than years ) from being able to launch 2000 Geran-2 drones a day( Shahed 's Russian name ). less than a year ago that production was about 5k a month.

Tanks are up to 150-200 a month. Unsure how many of those are brand new and how many are retrofitting skeletons.

Armoured personal carriers are up to nearly 200 a month now.

as of June, Iskander missiles up from 40 a month to 60-70, Kh-101 are up to 20-30 a month, 3M-14 Kalibr are 20-30 a month and 20 to 30 3M55 Onyx.

so while yeah, the idea that Russia can defeat Nato is still a joke. but the idea that in 5 years that they wont be ready to try is a hell of a risk to take.
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The whole arms race and physical war is just a smokescreen for the real war that is happening in the background. That war is happening in the cyber/internet landscape, infrastructure, politics and economics.

In terms of dealing with Europe and the west Russia does not need to build a single tank. It just has to propel the right people in the right places into power. Russia already has a Russia friendly US president and they'll potentially soon have a Russia friendly UK PM. Clearly it is winning whatever it is doing to influence that.

Unfortunately this is our own fault. We surrendered our defence industry to cost long ago and we have already caved every other industry into the lik es of China. Our politics is also being surrendered to misinformation and crap on social media and we're completely addicted to it despite having the outright power to turn the bloody thing off.

Our ability to make war has also been reduced to nothing. In WW2 they were building nearly 100 Spitfires per week whereas it now takes 2 years to build a single £100m fighter jet. Our main fighter jet is built via parts sourced from Europe, a dance of multiple points of failure/vulnerability. Our other fighter jet depends upon whether the US administration of the day will allow us to use it because they can just stop supporting it if demanded.

If war does kick off then it won't be a war that anybody can win quickly. Because we can't sustain war it would be equivalent to what we see now in Ukraine, trench warfare, drones, a war of simple makeshift and manpower which means a bloodbath of equivalence to WW1... and that's until the nukes start firing. Anyone wishing for this is just completely mad and thankfully even the Russians aren't that mad.
 
We've got Guardiola said:
The whole arms race and physical war is just a smokescreen for the real war that is happening in the background. That war is happening in the cyber/internet landscape, infrastructure, politics and economics.

In terms of dealing with Europe and the west Russia does not need to build a single tank. It just has to propel the right people in the right places into power. Russia already has a Russia friendly US president and they'll potentially soon have a Russia friendly UK PM. Clearly it is winning whatever it is doing to influence that.

Unfortunately this is our own fault. We surrendered our defence industry to cost long ago and we have already caved every other industry into the lik es of China. Our politics is also being surrendered to misinformation and crap on social media and we're completely addicted to it despite having the outright power to turn the bloody thing off.

Our ability to make war has also been reduced to nothing. In WW2 they were building nearly 100 Spitfires per week whereas it now takes 2 years to build a single £100m fighter jet. Our main fighter jet is built via parts sourced from Europe, a dance of multiple points of failure/vulnerability. Our other fighter jet depends upon whether the US administration of the day will allow us to use it because they can just stop supporting it if demanded.

If war does kick off then it won't be a war that anybody can win quickly. Because we can't sustain war it would be equivalent to what we see now in Ukraine, trench warfare, drones, a war of simple makeshift and manpower which means a bloodbath of equivalence to WW1... and that's until the nukes start firing. Anyone wishing for this is just completely mad and thankfully even the Russians aren't that mad.
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I did mention this earlier within 8 weeks they estimate that most modern weapons like f35 etc will be spent, as you say they can’t turn them out like ww2 so it will be like going back to ww1 unless someone has surrendered. They may still have aircraft but not missiles for them, the stockpiles will soon dwindle.
 
Scottyboi said:
Negotiations lasted 2 hours today, Witless still wants Ukraine to give up all of Donbass the fucking fool. Hope their plane ends up in the Atlantic on the way back to their master.
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It's fuck all to do with Donbas,and the idiot should know that.
If Putin wanted to grab Donbas,he'd of gone straight in through the East,rather than throw shitloads towards Kyiv.
He wants all of Ukraine.
Only my opinion,but,if they would of took Ukraine early on in 2022.
They would of gone North through Belarus and the Baltics,and would be possibly attacking Poland by now.
Anyone who thinks it will stop at Donbas,as you say "is a fool".

Heroyam Slava.
 
SPIDERBOY said:
It's fuck all to do with Donbas,and the idiot should know that.
If Putin wanted to grab Donbas,he'd of gone straight in through the East,rather than throw shitloads towards Kyiv.
He wants all of Ukraine.
Only my opinion,but,if they would of took Ukraine early on in 2022.
They would of gone North through Belarus and the Baltics,and would be possibly attacking Poland by now.
Anyone who thinks it will stop at Donbas,as you say "is a fool".

Heroyam Slava.
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Totally agree does anyone know the SMO details..
 
Day 1398 Review:

www.dailykos.com

Ukraine Invasion Day 1,398: blockades don't 'surround', like nationalized (oil) land has sovereignty

Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 16 to 17. If Russia's demands were not met through diplomatic efforts, Vladimir Putin warned that Russia would "liberate" what he claimed were its "historical...
www.dailykos.com

Russia refuses to accept guarantees for Ukrainian security if there is a ceasefire and "peace" treaty
That tells you all you need to.know about Putin's future ambitions.
It would be - pause, rearm, go again.
At what point will western leaders actually understand this?
 
cleavers said:
Yeah, I posted a video above that showed damage to the dock side, but the author thinks it damaged the sub and it's rear end is sagging in the water.
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Other intelligence agencies also say it damaged the rear end and its immobilised, full extent of damage is off course unknown from satellite alone but probably unusable for a long time. Im not sure if this port has a drydock to repair it or not so could be effectively lost.

They have sunk barges in the opening to the port following the attack, locking in their entire black sea fleet to try save them. No ship can leave or enter while these are in place, they are looking pretty desperate.

G8Y93iYWwAAy5sh.png
 
Uptop said:
Other intelligence agencies also say it damaged the rear end and its immobilised, full extent of damage is off course unknown from satellite alone but probably unusable for a long time. Im not sure if this port has a drydock to repair it or not so could be effectively lost.

They have sunk barges in the opening to the port following the attack, locking in their entire black sea fleet to try save them. No ship can leave or enter while these are in place, they are looking pretty desperate.

View attachment 177895
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Google Earth imagery shows they were there to an extent a year ago, so they might be moveable still. Did Ukraine not put a under water drone in there previously, or was it an air drone.

Re dry dock, I'm sure I read that the only russian one in the Black Sea was at Sevastapol in Crimea, which Ukraine did put a missile into last year.
 
cleavers said:
Google Earth imagery shows they were there to an extent a year ago, so they might be moveable still. Did Ukraine not put a under water drone in there previously, or was it an air drone.

Re dry dock, I'm sure I read that the only russian one in the Black Sea was at Sevastapol in Crimea, which Ukraine did put a missile into last year.
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Interesting, looking closer its possible they just arnt sunk at all and they move them in/out of place as needed and Ukraine just simply went beneath them or timed a window when they are known to be open. Maybe my source of info was incorrect.

I thought it was amusing as I lived in Orkney and it reminded me of blockships sunk between islands to protect the Royal Navy in Scapa Flow prior to the barriers being constructed in WW2, it felt like Russia resorting to crude WW1 tactics to stop uboat attacks all over again yet somehow worse if they locked themselves inside.
 


Zellenskyy said “Together with Prime Minister of Belgium
we discussed mechanisms for using frozen Russian assets. I understand all of Belgium’s concerns; however, a decision on the reparations loan must be made. It is fair and will ensure long-term predictability for Ukraine.

We also discussed coordination in diplomacy between Europe and the United States for the sake of peace, Ukraine’s future membership in the European Union, support for Ukraine’s energy system, and reconstruction.

I thank Belgium and the entire Belgian people for supporting Ukraine from the very beginning of the full-scale war. I am also grateful for Belgium’s contribution to the PURL initiative”


Belgium wanting to hang onto the Russian money for as long as possible, just look at the damage done to Ukraine it’s madness, Zellenskyy waiting all this time it makes me so angry. Just give him the money.
 
Sub damaged - prop shafts bent and a few watertight compartments damaged by explosion pressure waves. It's fucked basically.

Read thread posts.

 
Uptop said:
Interesting, looking closer its possible they just arnt sunk at all and they move them in/out of place as needed and Ukraine just simply went beneath them or timed a window when they are known to be open. Maybe my source of info was incorrect.

I thought it was amusing as I lived in Orkney and it reminded me of blockships sunk between islands to protect the Royal Navy in Scapa Flow prior to the barriers being constructed in WW2, it felt like Russia resorting to crude WW1 tactics to stop uboat attacks all over again yet somehow worse if they locked themselves inside.
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It seems there is a "dry dock" there, but it might not be suitable for the repairs.
 
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