Prestwich_Blue said:
That article is horrible, utterly horrible. Guy is supposed to be a football finance expert yet doesn't seem to know the difference between structuring payments and amortisation. Also no discussion of the potential revenue boost from signing someone like Messi. Let's hope he's been horribly misquoted as that level of stupidity from someone who's regularly quoted in the media is inexcusable.
I think though the Messi effect is still overstated. We are saying that Messi will repay his transfer himself in revenue but this is near on impossible over the length of his contract. Here is an example, according to figures between 2009-2014, Real Madrid sold on average 1.5M shirts a year, that is £105M a year at our shirt prices. The latest figures I can find on us is we sold on average in 2012, 250,000. Extrapolate that figure a little, call it 400,000 for 2014. Now is Messi really going to bring in 1.1M extra shirt sales to be comparable to Real Madrid, I highly doubt it, plus I'm sure Nike gets a cut of that figure anyway as they make the shirts. I'm afraid it is simply impossible to make enough money to 'repay' his transfer over any contract length, yes there would be a boost but it would seriously effect the way in which the club is growing without even thinking of passing FFP. Imagine us being hit with a £150M debt, it would set us back years of what has been so far, amazing progress.
Again our revenue last year totaled £346M, that includes sponsorship, shirt sales, everything. Now Messi is going to cost us lets face it at least £140/150M, probably more, and then we have to factor in he would have to be on pretty much the biggest wage in the world. That is almost 50% of turnover on a single player. Yes it will not all be paid at once and for purposes of FFP, we might get away with it but at what cost would this be to the rest of the team? This transfer would prevent us sustaining reinforcing our existing squad for quite sometime and I don't know about you but we are slowly but surely getting to the point where several key players are going to be past their prime. On football, Messi is also unproven in this league and we just do not know if he would turn up here and set the league on fire, to be honest he would have no choice but to do so, again the risk is there.
I'm afraid anyone thinking this transfer could happen is not thinking but is dreaming. The only clubs that can afford Messi are the ones that have huge spending power through their massive turnovers, a club like that could simply make way for the wages and use the actual cash they have made to make the buy. A perfect example is Real Madrid who historically can sign big because they have the massive cash flow to enable it. We unfortunately just do not make enough money to pay for it without the Sheikh having to step in which would almost certainly attract the attention of UEFA.
Barcelona remember too are also in a very good bargaining position, they do not want to sell him so they will strip us for every pound they can make should it happen. It would not surprise me if this transfer meant losing Silva or someone else in the future as well seeing as they can't sign anyone to replace Messi. That means this deal will not be cheap, it will be extremely expensive and at the end of the day would it be worth it? Neymar was a similar large deal going to Barcelona and it cost the president his job and also Barcelona's chance to really spend on reinforcing their squad. They are now in tatters, not thanks to that deal but because they failed to manage their resources effectively for the good of an aging, spent team.
I ask, why do we need Lionel Messi. We have a decent enough squad right now and £150M (if it were available) would be far better spent elsewhere on a group of top quality players in several positions where they are needed. Messi coming here would make shockwaves, no doubt but to what consequence to our incredible financial progress and also to the football?
Anyway, we have just paid £30M for Bony, we will not be signing Messi anytime soon nor anytime in the future and certainly not whilst the accountants are in charge.