1.226 = 46.581

Sgoater said:
If you had done the same thing with Fulham last season, at this stage of the season they would be nailed on to go down but they hit a great run of form and stayed up.

We need to win all our home games and im sure we will pick up something from an away game or two and i thinkg we might just have enough to finish 7th.


It's true there are always surprises. We are city - the world's leading expert on surprises.

All I'm saying is that every indication at present says that we are heading for 46 -49 points.

It's not pessimism, it's not optimism. It's just what it is
 
mammutly said:
Sgoater said:
If you had done the same thing with Fulham last season, at this stage of the season they would be nailed on to go down but they hit a great run of form and stayed up.

We need to win all our home games and im sure we will pick up something from an away game or two and i thinkg we might just have enough to finish 7th.


It's true there are always surprises. We are city - the world's leading expert on surprises.

All I'm saying is that every indication at present says that we are heading for 46 -49 points.

It's not pessimism, it's not optimism. It's just what it is


Oh yeah mate, fair enough, i was just saying i thnk we can do better from now until the end of the season than our form throughout the season suggests.
 
I was going to start a new thread but thought I will add to this.

Each year when the fixtures come out I put a prediction against each game on what I think we will get. I never change my thoughts and this always done before the first match of the season.

For this year I predicted we would end up with 61 points, we are currently running 10 points behind this and we can not make it back.

I thought I would look at where we lost these points and it is quite interesting. Our biggest area of loss is in games where I predicted a draw and we ended up losing, specifically the following fixtures:

Aston Villa A 4-2
Wigan Athletic A 2-1
Liverpool H 3-2
Middlesbrough A 2-0
Bolton Wanderers A 2-0
Tottenham Hotspur H 2-1
Everton H 1-0
West Brom A 2-1
Portsmouth A 2-0
West Ham United A 1-0

We should have been capable of getting a draw from these games and if we had we would be on 48pts and clearly 7th. If we carry on with my predictions to the end of the season then we should be on 51pts, which I don’t think we will now get and I doubt if it will be good enough for a place in Europe.

And, yes I have too much time on my hands and should get out more.
 
Half of them are fucking grumpy.

Grumpy is quite pleased about it though.
 
Sgoater said:
If you had done the same thing with Fulham last season, at this stage of the season they would be nailed on to go down but they hit a great run of form and stayed up.
exactly. this kind of statistical analysis is pretty much useless imo. you cant extrapolate final points total from season average so far because there are so many variables that need taking into account
 

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