#9 | Gabriel Jesus - 2020/21 Performances

[Metalartin]

@itisrising

I think it's generally accepted(as is the notion that strikers generally thrive on confidence which you're in utter denial about for some strange reason) that a player becomes more powerful than he was in his late teens.

There's an example as far back as his Palmeiras days(goal 4) of a "venmous shot" it's past the keeper before he can even react to it and there wasn't much backlift either, he took it quickly. I recommend watching the whole thing though to remind yourself.


Variation to his striking.



Plenty enough there. The amount of first time finishes at close range is as much about what Pep wants from him as anything else but he does that well. He's right footed but you'll see he's scored quite a high amount with his left foot too. Does anyone know if there's a stat site that keeps track of that? I'd like to know the totals for each foot. There's deft lobs, vollies, curling around the keeper from distance.

Couldn't find a good CL compilation and I can't seem to remember the Olympiacos one you mentioned but again, if he's not capable then we shouldn't have examples of these venomous strikes you're pinning your argument on. Personally, I think if he can beat the keeper a number of ways(which he can) at various distances(which he can) it wouldn't matter if he did have a weak shot(he doesn't imo). He'd obviously have very good technique if anything because he'd be scoring in spite of having a weak shot.

 

[Metalartin]

The reason I mention Haaland or Aguero is because that's the quality of finisher that you typically associate with the very elite clubs in Europe. The argument you're using is totally sidestepping the statistical data we have. 67% of his goals have come within the 6 yards of the goal, he has underperformed his xG every single year he has played for us, he missed the most big chances in the PL last season and overall averages a goal every 1.37 big chances missed. In comparison to Kane, an elite striker, he averages a goal every 0.58 big chances missed while scoring a ridiculous amount of goals. In fact, even if we were to use a player of similar age in Rashford, he averages a goal every 0.55 big chances missed.

This is not a qualitative debate, like I stated earlier. The stats are so ridiculously lopsided that it instrincly means there is something wrong with Jesus' finishing technique. There is absolutely no other conclusion that can be drawn from the data and certainly not confidence when the sample size is so large.

Nice strawman argument, let me just remind you, we're not arguing whether Jesus is missing chances or not, we are discussing why. So how is the xg ratio proof of anything? That just says he's missing chances. Which we already knew.

Pointing out where most of his goals are scored is just as much about Peps tactics as it is anything else. So that's not proof of anything either.

You like to think your argument is matter of fact but it's not. Why not actually address some of my arguments instead of "sidestepping" them. Isn't that a bit hypocritical of you? Have you even addressed one, all you've done is flat out deny confidence can affect a players conversion rate. Here's a made up stat for you. I think you'll find 99% of strikers would disagree with you.

 

[itisrising]

Nice strawman argument, let me just remind you we're not arguing whether Jesus is missing chances or not, we are discussing why. So how is the xg ratio proof of anything? That just says he's missing chances. Which we already knew.

Pointing out where most of his goals are scored is just as much about Peps tactics as it is anything else. So that's not proof of anything either.

You like to think your argument is matter of fact but it's not. Why not actually address some of my arguments instead of "sidestepping" them. Isn't that a bit hypocritical of you? Have you even addressed one, all you've done is flat out deny confidence can affect a players conversion rate. Here's a made up stat for you. I think you'll find 99% of strikers would disagree with you.

1) It's not a strawman argument because to put forth the question of 'confidence' to explain why a striker after 170+ appearances has consistently missed chances is such a ridiculous far fetched notion. This is further emphasised when Gabriel Jesus HIMSELF has stated he needs to improve his finishing and general shooting. Your argument here is so implausible and has so many holes in it. At what point did he lose confidence? How has confidence managed to affect him for 170 games? Why hasn't there been an increase in confidence after scoring 3 on the bounce or scoring against Madrid? At what point for you does it maybe become an ability issue or does the sample size of his beginning at City which lasted 800 minutes or his entire YouTube compilation which doesn't actually show you the number of chances missed outweigh that?

2) It's proof that his pure goal statistics aren't particularly indicative of good finishing.

3) The reason I'm not 'addressing' your argument per se is because your position is so extreme. I could argue that Mangala didn't do very well because of confidence. I could argue the same for any and every player that's flopped or underperformed in general. Ultimately, we have to adopt reasonable stances based on evidence and sample sizes. The idea that a striker has 'lacked confidence' for over 170 games and has led to them underperforming their xG every season with us and missing the most big chances is apparently more plausible than a striker simply not being a great finisher with said striker saying that himself!

The position you've adopted here is just totally unreasonable.

 

[Bluekiwi]

Just a question ----- is Jesus' better role as a midfield player capable of scoring double figure goals per season as opposed to a striker. He works his bollocks off for the team.

 

[super_city_si]

Just a question ----- is Jesus' better role as a midfield player capable of scoring double figure goals per season as opposed to a striker. He works his bollocks off for the team.

I think hell become a left sided forward. Where raz plays now. He just doesnt have a strikers instinct. Works his bollocks off and has a ton of skill, just too unreliable in front of goal.

 

[Metalartin]

1) It's not a strawman argument because to put forth the question of 'confidence' to explain why a striker after 170+ appearances has consistently missed chances is such a ridiculous far fetched notion. This is further emphasised when Gabriel Jesus HIMSELF has stated he needs to improve his finishing and general shooting. Your argument here is so implausible and has so many holes in it. At what point did he lose confidence? How has confidence managed to affect him for 170 games? Why hasn't there been an increase in confidence after scoring 3 on the bounce or scoring against Madrid? At what point for you does it maybe become an ability issue or does the sample size of his beginning at City which lasted 800 minutes or his entire YouTube compilation which doesn't actually show you the number of chances missed outweigh that?

2) It's proof that his pure goal statistics aren't particularly indicative of good finishing.

3) The reason I'm not 'addressing' your argument per se is because your position is so extreme. I could argue that Mangala didn't do very well because of confidence. I could argue the same for any and every player that's flopped or underperformed in general. Ultimately, we have to adopt reasonable stances based on evidence and sample sizes. The idea that a striker has 'lacked confidence' for over 170 games and has led to them underperforming their xG every season with us and missing the most big chances is apparently more plausible than a striker simply not being a great finisher with said striker saying that himself!

The position you've adopted here is just totally unreasonable.

So Jesus says he needs to improve his finishing. Do you not think it could be another way of saying:

"I need to score more of my chances"

rather than admitting

"there's fundamental flaws in my ball striking technique"?

Do you not realise better finishing could translate to something as simple as: taking the right choices in the right moments, not snatching at shots and not overthinking things(all thinks tied into confidence). Is that not all part of finishing? What is so "absurd" or "unreasonable" about these perfectly valid and logical points?

Will any of that show up in your stat sheets? No it wont. They show you decent chances are being missed but they don't tell you why as I already said. This is a completely valid viewpoint.

Lets get this straight also:

You're completely transfixed on the XG stats.

You basically tried to say shot power=technique when they are two different attributes.

You think the goals outside the box stat supports claims such as "he has little variation to his shooting".

When presented with real life examples of why the above two statements are incorrect, you dismissed them, presumably because if you can't see it in stat form it didn't happen?

You ignore the system Pep plays has a big bearing on the type of goals Jesus is likely to score(I'd like to see the difference in Aguero's goals before and under Pep).

You're insistent on the idea that confidence in front of goal cannot affect a players conversion rate. That it's absurd that he could go on a run of goals and turn this xg stat around in seasons to come.

You used Mangala as an example of player performing below expectations, as if Jesus is the Mangala of strikers.

All that... and I'm the one being unreasonable? Have a word with yourself mate, it's just one big attempt to say your opinion is fact or somehow any more valid than mine.

Btw I gave you John Stones and Gundogan as examples for good reason. Gundogan's never shown what he showing this season before, your xg stats would tell you "that's not possible...". Stones was said to just be a poor defender, "just good on the ball" they said. I seem to remember the stat merchants telling us all about the 1 on 1 duels he was losing too, all to show he's "factually" shite at defending. So I'm not having it, I still don't agree with you, you'll just have to accept it.

 

[Metalartin]

@itisrising

I feel it's also worth pointing out, Jesus joined City while young and still developing, young players obviously need game time. So with that in mind, how can we ignore the injuries he had in his first 2 seasons and how many young PL strikers have had to compete with Aguero or a player as good as him for game time?

Kane didn't have that to contend with, Rashford didn't. With Rashford being the closest player to compare to since Jesus joined, there's not been a single season where Jesus played as many minutes as Rashford, either through injury or because Aguero was simply too good to leave out.

In Jesus' first season he made 10 league appearances, he got injured in February 2017 and missed a large chunk of football afterwards. In his second season he got injured in Dec 2017 while he was in fine form(8 goals in 11 games), he was not out for as long but it did disrupt his rhythm. Plus missing the World Cup through injury was clearly a concern for him(hence the tears), a scare like that could easily have affected his form when he came back. In his third season, he played less than half the amount of minutes that Rashford did that same season. Last season was the first time Jesus notched more than 2000 PL minutes since joining City and that was as much down to Aguero being injured than anything else. Rashford has had well in excess of that twice and is already near the 2000min mark(1956) this season as things stand, with Jesus closer to half that(1164 = 792 min difference). There's clearly been far more disruption with Jesus' playing time.

All of this does matter at the end of the day, it would more "unreasonable" to dismiss it all, than it would be to acknowledge it.

I still don't get the fixation with XG either.

I looked up Rashford's stats and not all his seasons have been impressive on the XG conversion. He was in the red in 3 of the previous 4 seasons. That would say he's not a good striker of the ball too by your logic, which I wouldn't agree with either.

EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2019/2020 season | Understat.com

xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2019/2020 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.

understat.com

Premier League Players Worst Underperforming Their xG - Ranked

Like it or not xG is here to stay. You would have seen it pop up during TV broadcasts and social media is also populated with stats merchants who treat it like

www.90min.com

Just looking at last seasons XG stats in the PL. I can see Firmino had the worst conversion rate, Jesus was 3rd lowest. Going into the last game of the season Jota was in 9th lowest, Gundogan 10th lowest. Are they all shite strikers of the ball? Are Joelinton and Benteke better strikers of the ball/do they have better shooting technique than Jesus and Firmino? I don't think so personally. In fact I'd say that was bollocks if I heard someone say it.

 

[Craig]

I thought his general play was excellent but yet again he showed as a finisher he’s not elite level. Does a brilliant job for the team so I’m not getting at him but with Agüero’s City career nearing an end we need to replace one amazing goal scorer with another in Haaland.

 

[Metalartin]

I really think people are just hearing the argument they want to have rather than what's being said.

I've not said:

Jesus can be an Aguero like finisher or even Haaland, or that we don't need another striker, or that I don't want Haaland(I do want us to sign him).

I've simply said:

The notion that he's just a poor striker of the ball is false because he has shown very good finishing ability(he has, with both feet I might add), he's just not consistent with it. I don't expect him to reach Aguero levels, or have Haaland's ceiling but I do think he has another gear in him. 20+ PL goals a season is doable for a player as good as him. If he can reach that consistently, ontop of everything else he offers, he'll be some player for us. The consistency could come as he matures.

 

[Saddleworth2]

His saving grace on this specific front is that he has very, very good movement off the ball. In previous seasons when he was used as more of a traditional forward he was generating a high xG due to his ability to get on the end of chances. For instance the chances he missed tonight as well as one near one from a Mahrez cross were off the back of his movement.

At a similar age Sterling had a similar issue, good at getting on the end of chances but struggled to be too much of a rounded finisher. From 18/19 onwards he started adding more tools to his belt and now we see him score a greater variety of goals.

Something not helping Jesus from the perspective of those who doubt him would be that this season he's being used less and less as a striker and more as a false 9. Which means he's getting fewer chances so his goal return is going to be lower than before. On top of that there are the injuries and the fact we barely scored for 15 games earlier this season (that lowered everybody's totals), so it's easy to knock him as a guy that doesn't get goals.

It should be noted last season he got 23 goals and 13 assists in all competitions. 36 goal contributions for a 23 year old striker in and out of the team (1 goal as a sub) should probably suggest he has something in him.

He does need to make a step up in terms of finishing, more for his benefit really than anyone else's. You can tell Pep likes him a lot, but he isn't anywhere near as clinical as he ought to be, which is doubly frustrating because he's got the ability to be a lot better on that front. Right now he may be the de facto 1st choice striker but I don't think Pep fully trusts him yet (hence not starting against Liverpool) and I think it's solely the finishing that's doing it. Because given what he has to offer, if he was a fine finisher on top of that you'd argue Pep would be mad not to start him in as many games as possible. If he could dial it up just a bit I think he'd easily be 1st choice. Hopefully he's working hard at it in training, in which case we may see a bamboo-esque sudden growth from him eventually, a bit like we've seen with Calvert-Lewin this season.

We've seen the likes of Gundogan, Stones, Zinchenko, Cancelo, Rodri, and Bernardo make big step ups of sorts in their City careers under Pep, so it wouldn't be out of this world for another player to do it too.

Good post mate. Its the one thing that needs to be more consistent. His link play last night and holding the ball despite being kicked and having zero protection from the referee was top notch. He was one of our best performers and creates so much space but a great deal of what he does goes unnoticed.
He has scored some really wonderful goals so as another poster said, its all about finding consistency with his striking because the consistency of every other element of his game is already there.