A sure bet (Idiot of 2010 inside)

Looking at this a slightly different way...
Ok, he lost £4400, which he said 'cost him his place at uni.'
Uni would have left him about £20000 in debt, and if he's that fucking thick in the first place, he almost certainly would fail his uni course.
So in conclusion, he's saved himself around £15k in the long run.
 
Dubai Blue said:
MCFCinUSA said:
I actually think it was a reasonable bet, but then I'm looking at the odds alone and the fact it took City a whole second half against Spurs to come back and score four goals after our 3-0 half-time deficit with Barton getting sent off. I mean how many times are teams 4-0 down going to score 4 goals in the last tenth of the match?

This guy thinks like I do, although you have to wonder what sort of team can throw a 4-0 lead away to tie the game in the last 12 minutes... I'd love to have seen this game.
The point is he thought he would be getting £440 in return, which would have been an understandable gamble. I'm sure if he actually knew he only stood to win £44 off a stake of £4,400 even this window licker would have abstained. It's an idiotic bet for such little value and simply not worth the risk, no matter how miniscule it might be.

I didn't pick up on this but I think you're right, ehehe.

Still, the number of times a team who has let in four goals with a dozen minutes left to play plus injury time is going to score four goals themselves and not concede another is a pretty remote possibility and in essence you're pocketing (or expect to pocket) 44 quid for risking 4,400 pounds for 1/6 of an hour, which implies a 6% return on your money over 60 minutes. It was a good bet even at these odds, but admittedly he thought he saw buried treasure and was taking 440 quid for his trouble (he was rashly stupid, but his actual actions were still merited from a professional's standpoint in my opinion).

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.okcupid.com/tests/the-professional-gambler-aptitude-test" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.okcupid.com/tests/the-profes ... itude-test</a>

- the above link is for anyone who wants to test their gambling smarts; written by a pro.
 
MCFCinUSA said:
Dubai Blue said:
The point is he thought he would be getting £440 in return, which would have been an understandable gamble. I'm sure if he actually knew he only stood to win £44 off a stake of £4,400 even this window licker would have abstained. It's an idiotic bet for such little value and simply not worth the risk, no matter how miniscule it might be.

I didn't pick up on this but I think you're right, ehehe.

Still, the number of times a team who has let in four goals with a dozen minutes left to play plus injury time is going to score four goals themselves and not concede another is a pretty remote possibility and in essence you're pocketing (or expect to pocket) 44 quid for risking 4,400 pounds for 1/6 of an hour, which implies a 6% return on your money over 60 minutes. It was a good bet even at these odds, but admittedly he thought he saw buried treasure and was taking 440 quid for his trouble (he was rashly stupid, but his actual actions were still merited from a professional's standpoint in my opinion).

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.okcupid.com/tests/the-professional-gambler-aptitude-test" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.okcupid.com/tests/the-profes ... itude-test</a>

- the above link is for anyone who wants to test their gambling smarts; written by a pro.

10% return. don't go gambling now.
 
MCFCinUSA said:
Dubai Blue said:
The point is he thought he would be getting £440 in return, which would have been an understandable gamble. I'm sure if he actually knew he only stood to win £44 off a stake of £4,400 even this window licker would have abstained. It's an idiotic bet for such little value and simply not worth the risk, no matter how miniscule it might be.

I didn't pick up on this but I think you're right, ehehe.

Still, the number of times a team who has let in four goals with a dozen minutes left to play plus injury time is going to score four goals themselves and not concede another is a pretty remote possibility and in essence you're pocketing (or expect to pocket) 44 quid for risking 4,400 pounds for 1/6 of an hour, which implies a 6% return on your money over 60 minutes. It was a good bet even at these odds, but admittedly he thought he saw buried treasure and was taking 440 quid for his trouble (he was rashly stupid, but his actual actions were still merited from a professional's standpoint in my opinion).

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.okcupid.com/tests/the-professional-gambler-aptitude-test" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.okcupid.com/tests/the-profes ... itude-test</a>

- the above link is for anyone who wants to test their gambling smarts; written by a pro.

10% return. don't go gambling now.
 
crizack said:
MCFCinUSA said:
I didn't pick up on this but I think you're right, ehehe.

Still, the number of times a team who has let in four goals with a dozen minutes left to play plus injury time is going to score four goals themselves and not concede another is a pretty remote possibility and in essence you're pocketing (or expect to pocket) 44 quid for risking 4,400 pounds for 1/6 of an hour, which implies a 6% return on your money over 60 minutes. It was a good bet even at these odds, but admittedly he thought he saw buried treasure and was taking 440 quid for his trouble (he was rashly stupid, but his actual actions were still merited from a professional's standpoint in my opinion).

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.okcupid.com/tests/the-professional-gambler-aptitude-test" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.okcupid.com/tests/the-profes ... itude-test</a>

- the above link is for anyone who wants to test their gambling smarts; written by a pro.

10% return. don't go gambling now.

10%?? He was only getting a nominal 1% had he of won, but I scaled it up to a yield per hour (x6 since there were only 11 or 12 minutes of play remaining) just for kicks, eheh.
 
MCFCinUSA said:
crizack said:
10% return. don't go gambling now.

10%?? He was only getting a nominal 1% had he of won, but I scaled it up to a yield per hour (x6 since there were only 11 or 12 minutes of play remaining) just for kicks, eheh.

c'mon.... the guy was the perfect sucker. i lie awake at night dreaming of meeting someone like him at the card table. not that I play for cash, but, anyway, it's a nice dream!

anyhoo, I'd be skeptical of ever betting on the ACON. There are some unfortunate stereotypes regarding the 'mentality' of african teams, which I don't really buy into... but they belie the mix of supreme talents and complete amateurs on the pitch... and there are a few amateurs in the dug outs too! It doesn't seem to work like European football, where you have a general baseline of tactical organisation and individual ability.
 
bizzbo said:
MCFCinUSA said:
10%?? He was only getting a nominal 1% had he of won, but I scaled it up to a yield per hour (x6 since there were only 11 or 12 minutes of play remaining) just for kicks, eheh.

c'mon.... the guy was the perfect sucker. i lie awake at night dreaming of meeting someone like him at the card table. not that I play for cash, but, anyway, it's a nice dream!

anyhoo, I'd be skeptical of ever betting on the ACON. There are some unfortunate stereotypes regarding the 'mentality' of african teams, which I don't really buy into... but they belie the mix of supreme talents and complete amateurs on the pitch... and there are a few amateurs in the dug outs too! It doesn't seem to work like European football, where you have a general baseline of tactical organisation and individual ability.

I think I'd take those odds until the cows came home Bizzbo - provided I could take the hit if I lost, which let's face it, how many times does a 'professional' team getting hammered come back and score four goals in 11 minutes + injury time without reply from the other team? (you'd think less than 1 in 100 wouldn't you?)

an Arsenal friend of mine (who used to be on their books) called me today cracking that Mancini's contract on our forward and their former player hadn't worked...
 

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