Another new Brexit thread

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To be fair mate I think a lot of Remainers are in denial about a lot of things. For a start, in denial about the public mandate that we must leave, after which all subsequent argument is rendered irrelevant.

But putting that to one side, many of you are in denial about the fact that it is possible to leave the EU in an orderly fashion in a reasonable timescale. You are in denial about the fact that Johnson's motives may very well be to negotiate a good deal for the UK and not throw the UK into no-deal turmoil. And you are in denial about just what little impact WTO terms would have on most people. Some goods might be a little more expensive, others cheaper. Exporting businesses may be adversely impacted, but the pound would likely fall, so that would help them. And the goverment would be free to offer support to exporters (and encouragements to stay in the UK) without be blocked from doing so by the EU.

You are also in denial about the strength of the UK negotiating postion. They categorically do not want a dynamic, deregulated, low tax economy like SIngapore, 26 miles off the coast of France.

Yes it is. 11 months is not reasonable.

It’s taken nearly 3 years to negotiate the WA and it still isn’t ratified or passed into law. Given this on what basis is ignoring the evidence of the last three years or our experiences in negotiating the WA a good idea when it comes to projecting the next few years? Or is it just partisan party loyalty in which case all discussion becomes moot?
 
Bless he lives in a country called Remania and he is remanier than thou.

Most smart people are in favour of remaining.

However, it does not make his insight into trade negotiations any less relevant, unless of course you believe him to be lying. In which case you should challenge his assertions with your deep knowledge of fuck all. Now that would be amusing .

The point is we are highly unlikely to have TA in place by Dec 2020 and a no deal exit is very much on the cards.
 
To be fair mate I think a lot of Remainers are in denial about a lot of things. For a start, in denial about the public mandate that we must leave, after which all subsequent argument is rendered irrelevant.

But putting that to one side, many of you are in denial about the fact that it is possible to leave the EU in an orderly fashion in a reasonable timescale. You are in denial about the fact that Johnson's motives may very well be to negotiate a good deal for the UK and not throw the UK into no-deal turmoil. And you are in denial about just what little impact WTO terms would have on most people. Some goods might be a little more expensive, others cheaper. Exporting businesses may be adversely impacted, but the pound would likely fall, so that would help them. And the goverment would be free to offer support to exporters (and encouragements to stay in the UK) without be blocked from doing so by the EU.

You are also in denial about the strength of the UK negotiating postion. They categorically do not want a dynamic, deregulated, low tax economy like SIngapore, 26 miles off the coast of France.
And if the Tories do want a deregulated economy (or even some Tories) how will that make for easy negotiatons? How many Tory MPs would block your easy "orderly fashion in a reasonable timescale" prediction? Some of them want No Deal and WTO and are openly lobbying for it. The unicorns keep coming.
 
And if the Tories do want a deregulated economy (or even some Tories) how will that make for easy negotiatons? How many Tory MPs would block your easy "orderly fashion in a reasonable timescale" prediction? Some of them want No Deal and WTO and are openly lobbying for it. The unicorns keep coming.
My point is that the threat of no deal is a very credible one that the EU absolutely do not want. And avoiding that by offering us a decent trade deal is a very real aspiration. How many Labour MPs would vote FOR a FTA which closely aligns us to the EU?

Consider this Vic - I am serious - this is not about silly point scoring, so please I ask you to have an open mind.

Around 450 MPs are Remain supporters, and yet when asked to pass the A50 legislation to take us out, it was passed by 498 votes to 114. Overwhelmingly, MPs thought that despite their personal preferences, they had a obligation to accept the referendum result.

This General Election is all about Brexit. We all know it is. For the Tory Party, it most definitely is. They are standing, overtly, on a "Get Brexit Done" ticket. So let's suppose for a moment that they manage to win and win with a majority. Remain-oriented MPs will be faced with hearing the public's clear mandate for Brexit, not once, but twice. They will feel even more compelled to back a Brexit deal.

Do you think it is possible that many Labour MPs will support a final trade agreement with the EU, once Boris presents it back to parliament? I think it is nailed on certain that they will. Even more so, if it protects exporters and jobs. In these circumstances the hard right can huff and puff all they like, but the deal will be passed, with extensive support from Labour, whipped or not. Apart from anything else, Corbyn would very likely not be the Labour leader in such circumstances.

Do you see what I am suggesting and what's your opinion on this?
 
To be fair mate I think a lot of Remainers are in denial about a lot of things. For a start, in denial about the public mandate that we must leave, after which all subsequent argument is rendered irrelevant.

But putting that to one side, many of you are in denial about the fact that it is possible to leave the EU in an orderly fashion in a reasonable timescale. You are in denial about the fact that Johnson's motives may very well be to negotiate a good deal for the UK and not throw the UK into no-deal turmoil. And you are in denial about just what little impact WTO terms would have on most people. Some goods might be a little more expensive, others cheaper. Exporting businesses may be adversely impacted, but the pound would likely fall, so that would help them. And the goverment would be free to offer support to exporters (and encouragements to stay in the UK) without be blocked from doing so by the EU.

You are also in denial about the strength of the UK negotiating postion. They categorically do not want a dynamic, deregulated, low tax economy like SIngapore, 26 miles off the coast of France.
Pure waffle.
Just trying to convince yourself.
First off the " Remainers" are realistic about leaving in an "orderly fashion" and "timescales".
A closely integrated EU/ UK deal like the one we currently have ( with acceptance of conditionsthat go with that) or a totally arms length deal might be capable of being finalised towards the shorter end of the 1 to 3 year extension time frame.
A totally bespoke deal for the UK will definitely be towards the longer end given the detailed negotiations on every single aspect of the EU/UK relationship. I doubt even three years would be sufficient.
Also remember the fact that in this phase of the negotiations there has to be unanimity amongst all EU members, not just a majority vote, AND the EU will not wish to give the UK a 'good deal' without payback, otherwise that could be a signal for others to leave on attractive terms.
You mention price tariffs,. They're not the biggest concern. Non tariff barriers are.
How do you know what 'little' impact trading on WTO terms will have on 'most ' people. No other country in the world trades solely on WTO terms. Define 'little', define 'most'.
Finally regarding our negotiating position it is true that the EU do not want Singapore on their doorstep. So that is threat to them
However this is where you do a nice sleight of hand. You describe such a deregulated economy as " dynamic" . You imply this will be a good thing for the UK.
It could be a ' sweat shop' economy of low wages, low productivity,low social benefits with the North decimated and service and high tech jobs limited mainly to London. So even greater inequality of wealth between regions and people than we have now.
The point is it's a big risk. Stop making it out as a given that " Singapore" UK will definitely be a good thing. If it was then why not do a sharp no deal exit now and enter the sunlit uplands of Singapore?
So better to concern yourself with the actualité rather than acting as a mouthpiece for the Tory party.
 
I'm struggling to understand why you think that we can have a trade agreement within 11 months by keeping regulatory alignment and be Singapore-on-Thames at the same time.

Those positions are mutually exclusive unless I'm missing something.
You are missing something.

What I said was the the EU most definitely do NOT want Singapore on Thames and that the prospect of that, were we to crash out without a trade deal, provides them with a very real imperative to get a trade deal done in order to prevent it.
 
I'm telling myself nothing, I'm telling you that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market and customs union,
there would have been no point whatsoever having a referendum if it were predicated on the ludicrous proviso
that we won't. It would be like saying that whoever wins the forthcoming GE with a majority, won't necessarily be forming
the government. 'Hard Brexit' is a remainer concept dreamt up after the event.

The promises were, vote for Brexit, and we'll still have ALL the benefits we do now, plus more, but can pick and choose what (also read who) we leave, bin or keep. As that turned out harder and harder to deliver, Hard Brexit covers the reality of leaving with fuck all benefits, which will will hit us all hard, as opposed to a soft brexit that keeps at least some.
 
Why should it be like that though Len?
I'll tell you why mate.
Other than the economic border in the Irish Sea ,none of the issues of the UK/EU future relationship have yet to be resolved.
BUT we know now that the Leave side lied in the referendum campaign, particularly but not exclusively on the economic impact of Brexit and on the ease and simplicity of a good deal.
Far from the sunlit uplands even the most hardened leavers are admitting 'short term' pain before things get better whilst the official Government figures show a significant economic downturn (6 to 7% GDP drop in GDP) with no guarantee things will get better.
It doesn't matter whether you think the Remain side lied because we're leaving now. To the victor the spoils but also the consequence of his lies in achieving that victory.
And it is precisely because of the Leave lies and the way they have played out to date and will play out in the future that the same old people will be coming on here with the same old arguments.
 
What, exactly, is a 'Hard' Brexit? The agreed WA involves leaving the customs union and single market, which was
what we were told, ad nauseum, that's what would happen, everyone knew it, because these are the basic tenets of the EU,
so if we vote to leave, we, quite obviously, leave these two.
It's only the losers of the referendum that coin this term, it's a ridiculous term that means nothing at all, other than leaving
the EU.
At your age mate I can sympathise with you not remembering what a 'Hard' one is.
However just to correct you for the record - whilst it is correct to say we were told during the referendum campaign that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market ( albeit that's not the case in theory - Norway) we were NOT told that leaving the EU meant leaving the customs union.
 
You mean apart from those times I have said the only way you get a future trade deal done in 11 months is sign up for a deal that leaves us with pretty much what we have now, ie fully aligned? Or as I like to call it de facto membership.

The EU are currently making encouraging noises that this is the way to go. The EU trade commissioner Hogan said last night that UK consumers will expect the UK to sign up to the EU’s labour, environmental and food standards as part of a free trade agreement. What Hogan didn’t comment on was that current alignment is underwritten by ECJ which is politically toxic to Tories and Brexiteers so question is do we accept the writ of the ECJ as before or do we construct a new legal framework? Secondly you overlook that alignment is not what the Tories are after and yes I know you think Johnson is lying and yes he definitely is lying to someone but coaxing people down from the ‘Global Britain Empire 2.0’ ledge is going to take time and a lot will depend on what the Tory manifesto says.

The fight over the legal basis alone will take time and then you have to decide which sectors you want to keep fully aligned and if any will be hived off or just kept partly aligned and that will involve discussions and consultations with the industry sectors themselves and we still haven’t even discussed NTB and our service industries which brings us to mutual recognition of qualifications and the tricky issue of ‘the movement of people’ across borders to facilitate the providing of those services.

And last but not least is the NI question and just how long does it take to set out, create and implement new custom protocols in NI? Does Dublin have a role? Is the legal basis underpinning the new protocols the ECJ? Do NI get to keep its MEP’s? And how hostile will Unionists be to this process?

Lots to sort out in 11 months.
It ain't getting sorted in 11 months
 
...And the goverment would be free to offer support to exporters (and encouragements to stay in the UK) without be blocked from doing so by the EU.

I isolated this part as it may not be entirely correct. Under the WA insofar as it applies to NI it also extends State Aid provisions to the U.K. So any U.K. wide business friendly measures or any GB company that has a presence or trades with NI will be caught by this provision.

‘An under-reported aspect of the new NI protocol. Article 10 and Annex 5 apply the full panoply of EU State aid rules (the law; its application by the Commission and ECJ; enforceability in the UK courts) to *the United Kingdom* in perpetuity. The only condition is that the measure at issue is one that affects trade in goods between NI and the EU27’ @GeorgePeretzQC
 
"Pundits and MPs kept saying ‘why isn’t Leave arguing about the economy and living standards’. They did not realise that for millions of people, £350m/NHS was about the economy and living standards – that’s why it was so effective. It was clearly the most effective argument not only with the crucial swing fifth but with almost every demographic. Even with UKIP voters it was level-pegging with immigration. Would we have won without immigration? No. Would we have won without £350m/NHS? All our research and the close result strongly suggests No. Would we have won by spending our time talking about trade and the Single Market? No way."

Dominic Cummings 2017.

And yet you fools still won't admit you were duped.
 
I'll tell you why mate.
Other than the economic border in the Irish Sea ,none of the issues of the UK/EU future relationship have yet to be resolved.
BUT we know now that the Leave side lied in the referendum campaign, particularly but not exclusively on the economic impact of Brexit and on the ease and simplicity of a good deal.
Far from the sunlit uplands even the most hardened leavers are admitting 'short term' pain before things get better whilst the official Government figures show a significant economic downturn (6 to 7% GDP drop in GDP) with no guarantee things will get better.
It doesn't matter whether you think the Remain side lied because we're leaving now. To the victor the spoils but also the consequence of his lies in achieving that victory.
And it is precisely because of the Leave lies and the way they have played out to date and will play out in the future that the same old people will be coming on here with the same old arguments.

Well you are obviously entitled to your opinions, and they are just that opinions! the same as any one else.

However you miss one of the points I was making completely.

Why be so rude and insulting to anyone who dares to have an opposing view ?
 
Well you are obviously entitled to your opinions, and they are just that opinions! the same as any one else.

However you miss one of the points I was making completely.

Why be so rude and insulting to anyone who dares to have an opposing view ?
Because your “opposing view” will damage every one of us and our families for years to come. That’s why. An opinion does not have equal validity to another opinion if one is backed with evidence and the other is not.
 
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