Another new Brexit thread

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

This is a German briefing on the views of the German Govt. if you want the views of the other 26 European Govts I suggest you google them.

I'm more interested in my own governments view tbh.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Quite probable but Johnson won’t call for an election just to lose it and if Tory MPs have misgivings he won’t call for one. The point remains though that calling for a GE is not within Johnson’s gift. He needs his troops to back it

We seem to have gone around a big loop here. Technically you are right, but I maintain that it's a moot point because if he calls one, it goes through. So in effect he can trigger a GE if he wants one.

 

[yerwot?]

Surely Germany don't run the EU? I would never have guessed. It's almost as if the opinions of the other 27 nations don't matter.

Really good comment. said noone ever

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Really good comment. said noone ever

Literally devastated by this comment and your disapproval. Still, life goes on I suppose.

 

[BobKowalski]

We seem to have gone around a big loop here. Technically you are right, but I maintain that it's a moot point because if he calls one, it goes through. So in effect he can trigger a GE if he wants one.

Pretty much :)

 

[BobKowalski]

I'm more interested in my own governments view tbh.

Whatever Brexit we eventually get, assuming we ever get one, will be shaped by the EU and the E27 therefore unless you wish to be eternally surprised it would pay to be interested.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I think the way this is headed is that parliament will successfully block no deal, Boris will call a GE and the leave date will be moved again by a couple of months or so to allow the GE to happen. And then *incredibly* really, Boris will win the GE and have a strong mandate for leave, and we'll then leave the EU some time early in the new year. Whether that will be with some deal like the May one, or just on No Deal, I am not sure, but we will leave.

That's how I see it panning out.

There's a few reasons why I think this. First and foremost is we have to remember what happened in the last GE. The Tories fought what is generally accepted to be the worst campaign ever. At the same time Corbyn played an absolute blinder. And the GE came on the back of 7 years of austerity and people thoroughly pissed off with the government. And Corbyn *still* did not win. This was his high water mark.

Johnson is *immeasurably* more charismatic than May (who had negative charisma) and there is no remote possibility of such a dire Tory campaign for a second time. The entire Leave vote will be galvanised behind Johnson, and many devout Tories from the Remain side will also vote for him rather than see Corbyn in power. Also the Labour vote in the north will be trashed, given the anti-EU sentiment and Corbyn campaigning (effectively) for Remain. I say "campaigning". Faced with these conflicting interests, he'll almost certainly campaign just as effectively as he did in the referendum, i.e. not at all. He'll come across as a weak and opportunistic charlatan who will say anything (and avoid saying anything) in order to maximise his vote and the voters will see right through it.

I am a strange fish, I realise this. To be a devout Remainer and a devout Tory, is not common on this forum. But the above scenario would certainly leave me with mixed feelings. Seeing the Tories in power with a workable majority would be a marvellous thing, with the demise of Corbyn as pure icing on the cake. But at the price of our leaving the EU. A bitter pill to swallow is that.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

I think the way this is headed is that parliament will successfully block no deal, Boris will call a GE and the leave date will be moved again by a couple of months or so to allow the GE to happen. And then *incredibly* really, Boris will win the GE and have a strong mandate for leave, and we'll then leave the EU some time early in the new year. Whether that will be with some deal like the May one, or just on No Deal, I am not sure, but we will leave.

That's how I see it panning out.

There's a few reasons why I think this. First and foremost is we have to remember what happened in the last GE. The Tories fought what is generally accepted to be the worst campaign ever. At the same time Corbyn played an absolute blinder. And the GE came on the back of 7 years of austerity and people thoroughly pissed off with the government. And Corbyn *still* did not win. This was his high water mark.

Johnson is *immeasurably* more charismatic than May (who had negative charisma) and there is no remote possibility of such a dire Tory campaign for a second time. The entire Leave vote will be galvanised behind Johnson, and many devout Tories from the Remain side will also vote for him rather than see Corbyn in power. Also the Labour vote in the north will be trashed, given the anti-EU sentiment and Corbyn campaigning (effectively) for Remain. I say "campaigning". Faced with these conflicting interests, he'll almost certainly campaign just as effectively as he did in the referendum, i.e. not at all. He'll come across as a weak and opportunistic charlatan who will say anything (and avoid saying anything) in order to maximise his vote and the voters will see right through it.

I am a strange fish, I realise this. To be a devout Remainer and a devout Tory, is not common on this forum. But the above scenario would certainly leave me with mixed feelings. Seeing the Tories in power with a workable majority would be a marvellous thing, with the demise of Corbyn as pure icing on the cake. But at the price of our leaving the EU. A bitter pill to swallow is that.

I agree with your first para, but don't see the parliamentary arithmetic shifting much after a GE, so we will be no further on. The EU is not an organisation that is designed for anyone to ever leave and I don't think we ever will. Whoever finally revokes A50 just needs to wait for such a time as they can blame someone else. A Corbyn led coalition of the self-interested would do just nicely in this respect.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Whatever Brexit we eventually get, assuming we ever get one, will be shaped by the EU and the E27 therefore unless you wish to be eternally surprised it would pay to be interested.

Not wishing to be ignorant mate, but in view of the fact that the EU is stating the extant deal is the only one on offer, I think I'd be better off doing various pressing tasks around the house than performing the 27 google searches you suggest.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I agree with your first para, but don't see the parliamentary arithmetic shifting much after a GE, so we will be no further on. The EU is not an organisation that is designed for anyone to ever leave and I don't think we ever will. Whoever finally revokes A50 just needs to wait for such a time as they can blame someone else. A Corbyn led coalition of the self-interested would do just nicely in this respect.

The parliamentary arithmetic changes entirely if Bojo wins a GE.

Not because of the raw numbers - he may or may not get a huge majority, or indeed any majority at all.

But because there would be very few if any MPs who would vote against Brexit in any form, after a GE had been called (and won) specifically to get the needed mandate. There would be a general acceptance that they have resisted it as long and as much as possible but had reached the end of the road and would just have to suck it up.

 

[BobKowalski]

I think the way this is headed is that parliament will successfully block no deal, Boris will call a GE and the leave date will be moved again by a couple of months or so to allow the GE to happen. And then *incredibly* really, Boris will win the GE and have a strong mandate for leave, and we'll then leave the EU some time early in the new year. Whether that will be with some deal like the May one, or just on No Deal, I am not sure, but we will leave.

That's how I see it panning out.

There's a few reasons why I think this. First and foremost is we have to remember what happened in the last GE. The Tories fought what is generally accepted to be the worst campaign ever. At the same time Corbyn played an absolute blinder. And the GE came on the back of 7 years of austerity and people thoroughly pissed off with the government. And Corbyn *still* did not win. This was his high water mark.

Johnson is *immeasurably* more charismatic than May (who had negative charisma) and there is no remote possibility of such a dire Tory campaign for a second time. The entire Leave vote will be galvanised behind Johnson, and many devout Tories from the Remain side will also vote for him rather than see Corbyn in power. Also the Labour vote in the north will be trashed, given the anti-EU sentiment and Corbyn campaigning (effectively) for Remain. I say "campaigning". Faced with these conflicting interests, he'll almost certainly campaign just as effectively as he did in the referendum, i.e. not at all. He'll come across as a weak and opportunistic charlatan who will say anything (and avoid saying anything) in order to maximise his vote and the voters will see right through it.

I am a strange fish, I realise this. To be a devout Remainer and a devout Tory, is not common on this forum. But the above scenario would certainly leave me with mixed feelings. Seeing the Tories in power with a workable majority would be a marvellous thing, with the demise of Corbyn as pure icing on the cake. But at the price of our leaving the EU. A bitter pill to swallow is that.

Firstly I think you are way too generous to May with her ‘negative charisma’. It was more a crushing black hole that sucked the life out of everything she came into contact with. Secondly the Tories have obtained a majority once in the last 25 years and it was a slim one at that in 2015. Thirdly the Tories will likely lose most, if not all, of their 13 Scottish MPs. Fourthly the LibDems will make inroads in Tory Remain seats and in the SW of the country. Finally the Brexit Party are going to be a spoiling factor for the Tories given the GE will see the U.K. still in the EU despite the Tory ‘promises’ to leave. Farage will be hammering Johnson morning, noon and night for his ‘failure’ to exit the EU.

Just can't see a Tory majority Govt.

 

[Vic]

Surely Germany don't run the EU? I would never have guessed. It's almost as if the opinions of the other 27 nations don't matter.

Don't be silly. We've got no deal because we didn't pretend we'd leave with no deal. In fact we always said we'd leave with a deal.

Germany is isn't saying anything the other 26 don't agree with - you negotiated a deal that you couldn't deliver and now you don't know what to do, so we believe you. Really, why is this even worth comment?

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Don't be silly. We've got no deal because we didn't pretend we'd leave with no deal. In fact we always said we'd leave with a deal.

Germany is isn't saying anything the other 26 don't agree with - you negotiated a deal that you couldn't deliver and now you don't know what to do, so we believe you. Really, why is this even worth comment?

I agree, hardly worth commenting on, but whoever posted it clearly thought it was.

 

[Vic]

No, I meant that the EEC/EU/Common market agreement should have had a decent thought out exit strategy at the outset just like an employment, tenancy or any other number of agreements have. If this was found to be impossible at the time, then it should have been a barrier to joining.

Before the Lisbon Treaty there was no provision to withdraw from the EU. (Who would want to?) Vienna Conventions might have some general provision.

Article 50 made that provision. If we leave on 31st October it will be under the provisions of Article 50, but the effect will more or less be as if Article 50 didn't exist.

You should have thought of all this before you voted.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Before the Lisbon Treaty there was no provision to withdraw from the EU. (Who would want to?) Vienna Conventions might have some general provision.

Article 50 made that provision. If we leave on 31st October it will be under the provisions of Article 50, but the effect will more or less be as if Article 50 didn't exist.

You should have thought of all this before you voted.

No issue with article 50 - no deal it is then.

 

[bluethrunthru]

The parliamentary arithmetic changes entirely if Bojo wins a GE.

Not because of the raw numbers - he may or may not get a huge majority, or indeed any majority at all.

But because there would be very few if any MPs who would vote against Brexit in any form, after a GE had been called (and won) specifically to get the needed mandate. There would be a general acceptance that they have resisted it as long and as much as possible but had reached the end of the road and would just have to suck it up.

The last GE was called by a PM who wanted a much needed mandate - look how that turned out. A Tory majority could contain more Remainers or soft leavers than it does now. It will only work if Boris gets a resounding majority of overwhelmingly No Deal MP's - anything less and its the same unworkable mess just with new faces falling out with each other.

 

[blueparrot]

I agree with your first para, but don't see the parliamentary arithmetic shifting much after a GE, so we will be no further on. The EU is not an organisation that is designed for anyone to ever leave and I don't think we ever will. Whoever finally revokes A50 just needs to wait for such a time as they can blame someone else. A Corbyn led coalition of the self-interested would do just nicely in this respect.

Nothing to stop any country leaving. Any country can leave when they want but i''t then up to that country to work out a relationship with Europe that works for them. Can't expect the EU to work it out for them. If I leave my gym I have to find my own alternative don't expect my gym to let me use their equipment or work out how I get my exercise for me, at the inconvenience of the other members.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The last GE was called by a PM who wanted a much needed mandate - look how that turned out.

Look who called it. Enough said.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Nothing to stop any country leaving. Any country can leave when they want but i''t then up to that country to work out a relationship with Europe that works for them. Can't expect the EU to work it out for them. If I leave my gym I have to find my own alternative don't expect my gym to let me use their equipment or work out how I get my exercise for me, at the inconvenience of the other members.

Pretty blindingly obvious really isn't it.

The idea that the gym would cave in, change its rules, let us visit and use the equipment for free? All because they were going to miss us buying an orange juice in the bar afterwards? It was all pretty silly that, wasn't it.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

Pretty blindingly obvious really isn't it.

The idea that the gym would cave in, change its rules, let us visit and use the equipment for free? All because they were going to miss us buying an orange juice in the bar afterwards? It was all pretty silly that, wasn't it.

All you need to do is leave the gym and tell them that unless they give you full membership for free, you’ll cut off your legs outside their door.

No way will they want to get the hosepipe out.