Another new Brexit thread

[Ban-jani]

Well - like most other Leave supporters I have accepted a while ago that the likelihood is that the UK will not 'meaningfully ' leave the EU - it is just the manner of how we will be stitched up than we are unsure of.

Even the recent changes at PM and cabinet do not provide a great deal of confidence.

So if we are not going to meaningfully Leave I would rather revoke that have a deal with the backstop in

So let’s just put this down to a bad job done terribly and let’s revoke and get on with improving the country and not making it worse?

 

[smudgedj]

If the stock market really thinks that No Deal is happening, the £130 billion wiped off the value of UK companies in the last 3 days will only be a foretaste of what's to come over the next 3 months and beyond. That's everyone's pensions screwed as well as the more affluent section of the population losing money. Fortunately the prospect of the ultra rich losing a fortune will make sure it doesn't happen. Hopefully.

Is that brexit or the trade war between America and China? Absolute fantastic buying opportunity.

 

[cibaman]

I don't think Boris can ever deliver no deal, he will just ensure it isn't his fault when he doesn't.

He is making sure that it will be the EU's fault for not removing the backstop or Tory/Labour/Parliament remainers fault for preventing no deal.

His current focus is posturing to win an election alongside TBP in the immediate aftermath of Brexit failure.

Labour don't stand a chance of challenging because the remain vote will be split apart by the Lib Dem's and their Brexit vote will obviously abandon them.

Labour could stand a chance of challenging, but not with this leadership

 

[Vic]

The substantive point is that the clearly stated position of HMG is that with regard to the implementation of the will of the people has been that no deal is better than a bad deal


There has been no ambiguity and there is no scope for misinterpretation on this

The only mandate is to leave - the deal is a consequence of negotiations during the implementation

It is just a simple fact that AC was pointing out.

No, he was claiming falsely that "no deal" was part of the leave campaign. You seemed to be claiming he was claiming something different.

Now you've constructed a ridiculous, barely grammatical falsehood that the g,overnment position is that the will of the people is something they made up after the referendum. And then say there is no ambiguity! You are a card.

 

[west didsblue]

Is that brexit or the trade war between America and China? Absolute fantastic buying opportunity.

Trade war. That's why I said it was a foretaste of what was to come in the event of No Deal. As you say, a great buying opportunity as long as there's a Brexit deal and an even better opportunity if we remain.

 

[mcfc1632]

Why on earth would I be happy if it said gross? Whilst more accurate it would render the statement meaningless.

Meaningless - how so??

Is it not the case that the £350m figure was the Gross figure before the rebate?

So why would you not be happy with the statement

"We send the EU a gross amount of £350m each Week

Let's fund out NHS instead"

It is just simply bollocks how much is made of this bus issue - the ONS announced - following the referendum - that the actual figures were:

• Payment to Brussels, net of rebate and money returned to the UK: £9.4 billion a year, or £181 million a week.
• Payment to Brussels, net of rebate: £13.9 billion a year, or £267 million a week.
• Gross payment to Brussels: £18.9 billion a year, or £363 million a week

Still a lot of money - no?

This is an helpful article:

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/...exit-bus-was-wrong-the-real-figure-is-higher/

 

[Saddleworth2]

Meaningless - how so??

Is it not the case that the £350m figure was the Gross figure before the rebate?

So why would you not be happy with the statement

"We send the EU a gross amount of £350m each Week

Let's fund out NHS instead"

It is just simply bollocks how much is made of this bus issue - the ONS announced - following the referendum - that the actual figures were:

• Payment to Brussels, net of rebate and money returned to the UK: £9.4 billion a year, or £181 million a week.
• Payment to Brussels, net of rebate: £13.9 billion a year, or £267 million a week.
• Gross payment to Brussels: £18.9 billion a year, or £363 million a week

Still a lot of money - no?

This is an helpful article:

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2017/...exit-bus-was-wrong-the-real-figure-is-higher/

Are you on the wind up mate?
"We send the EU a gross amount of £350m each Week

Let's fund out NHS instead"

Instead of what? Sending them £350m gross? You arent making sense and as you well know the UK doesn't 'send' a gross amount of £350 to the EU so its still factually incorrect. You cant just admit it was a misleading lie can you?

 

[mcfc1632]

Is that brexit or the trade war between America and China? Absolute fantastic buying opportunity.

Come on now - Brexit has far more global impact than a petty thing like a trade war between the US and China

 

[mcfc1632]

So let’s just put this down to a bad job done terribly and let’s revoke and get on with improving the country and not making it worse?

Hmmmm, possibly - apart from in the long-term Remaining in the EU will see the UK much worse off following a continual decline

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I don't think Boris can ever deliver no deal, he will just ensure it isn't his fault when he doesn't.

He is making sure that it will be the EU's fault for not removing the backstop or Tory/Labour/Parliament remainers fault for preventing no deal.

His current focus is posturing to win an election alongside TBP in the immediate aftermath of Brexit failure.

Labour don't stand a chance of challenging because the remain vote will be split apart by the Lib Dem's and their Brexit vote will obviously abandon them.

It is a fairly obvious game plan now from BoJo - maximise no deal / tough stance rhetoric in order to position for a GE. He is talking tough on preventing HoC stopping him but in reality he absolutely wants them to step in and stop him. In that scenario his campaign message is simple - HoC defied will of the people and only Tory gets you brexit. What happens after a GE (i don't think he has planned it as he has no where to go).

As for the GE. Tories are hugely unpopular, as are Labour - it's all about split votes and holding seats with smaller vote shares. I can only envisage that Tories and Labour will both lose seats to the BXP and Lib Dems. The issue i see is the tories losing most - they are banking on the northern leave towns voting tory - they wont, those people are traditionally labour and will prefer the bxp over tory - they just are not BoJo people. Tory still come 3rd in most of those i would think and the bxp will not get more than 20ish. On the other hand labour and tory stand to lose at least 50~60 to lib dems in the south and tories will get wiped out in scotland to Lib Dem / SNP. Both big net losses for Tory/Labour and crucially I dont think the BXP will off set the tory losses to get a brexit majority. The bottom line is that no deal brexit is just not as popular as the tory strategists think - and the areas where it are do not align with any record of tory success.

 

[mcfc1632]

Are you on the wind up mate?
"We send the EU a gross amount of £350m each Week

Let's fund our NHS instead"

Instead of what? Sending them £350m gross? You arent making sense and as you well know the UK doesn't 'send' a gross amount of £350 to the EU so its still factually incorrect. You cant just admit it was a misleading lie can you?

It can be made out to be seen as a misleading statement - it is nothing like as 'meaningless' as you have stated though is it

So let's try:

"We send the EU £181m each Week

Let's fund our NHS instead"

So that will work for you - surely?

Still a large amount of money - and certainly not 'meaningless'

 

[Ban-jani]

Hmmmm, possibly - apart from in the long-term Remaining in the EU will see the UK much worse off following a continual decline

Ok- well then a leave party can campaign on a manifesto for a general election detailing exactly the terms they will leave. They can do this in the future.

The referendum was always going to be the wrong way to do it. A party, with a detailed manifesto is much better.

 

[Len Rum]

They voted to Leave - that is the only valid mandate

Any subsequent deal or No-Deal is simply a consequence of how the negotiations went/go

It really is that simple and the Remainers just refuse to accept that simple truism

In which case the Norway model would be an option ( Norway not being a member of the EU).
N'est ce pas?

 

[cibaman]

It is a fairly obvious game plan now from BoJo - maximise no deal / tough stance rhetoric in order to position for a GE. He is talking tough on preventing HoC stopping him but in reality he absolutely wants them to step in and stop him. In that scenario his campaign message is simple - HoC defied will of the people and only Tory gets you brexit. What happens after a GE (i don't think he has planned it as he has no where to go).

As for the GE. Tories are hugely unpopular, as are Labour - it's all about split votes and holding seats with smaller vote shares. I can only envisage that Tories and Labour will both lose seats to the BXP and Lib Dems. The issue i see is the tories losing most - they are banking on the northern leave towns voting tory - they wont, those people are traditionally labour and will prefer the bxp over tory - they just are not BoJo people. Tory still come 3rd in most of those i would think and the bxp will not get more than 20ish. On the other hand labour and tory stand to lose at least 50~60 to lib dems in the south and tories will get wiped out in scotland to Lib Dem / SNP. Both big net losses for Tory/Labour and crucially I dont think the BXP will off set the tory losses to get a brexit majority. The bottom line is that no deal brexit is just not as popular as the tory strategists think - and the areas where it are do not align with any record of tory success.

Apparently Cummings believes that the tories can lose all of their Scottish seats (as they did in 2015 and won) and lose 20-30 seats to the Lib Dem’s and still win. He’s counting on Labour losing a shed load of votes to the Lib Dem’s and Bxp in Labour/Tory marginals. It seems a very high risk strategy, assumes a fairly catastrophic campaign by Labour.

 

[west didsblue]

It is a fairly obvious game plan now from BoJo - maximise no deal / tough stance rhetoric in order to position for a GE. He is talking tough on preventing HoC stopping him but in reality he absolutely wants them to step in and stop him. In that scenario his campaign message is simple - HoC defied will of the people and only Tory gets you brexit. What happens after a GE (i don't think he has planned it as he has no where to go).

As for the GE. Tories are hugely unpopular, as are Labour - it's all about split votes and holding seats with smaller vote shares. I can only envisage that Tories and Labour will both lose seats to the BXP and Lib Dems. The issue i see is the tories losing most - they are banking on the northern leave towns voting tory - they wont, those people are traditionally labour and will prefer the bxp over tory - they just are not BoJo people. Tory still come 3rd in most of those i would think and the bxp will not get more than 20ish. On the other hand labour and tory stand to lose at least 50~60 to lib dems in the south and tories will get wiped out in scotland to Lib Dem / SNP. Both big net losses for Tory/Labour and crucially I dont think the BXP will off set the tory losses to get a brexit majority. The bottom line is that no deal brexit is just not as popular as the tory strategists think - and the areas where it are do not align with any record of tory success.

Fair analysis.
Traditional Labour seats in Leave areas will be a battleground between Labour and BXP. Traditional Tory Leave seats will be between the Tories, the BXP and Lib Dems. The Lib Dems will make gains in many Remain areas and the SNP and Lib Dems will clean up in Scotland. Where we end up is anyone's guess but I agree there won't be enough Tory/BXP seats to form a majority government between them.

 

[Ban-jani]

In which case the Norway model would be an option ( Norway not being a member of the EU).
N'est ce pas?

A certain Nigel Farage, no less, said in 2015 “we can be like Norway, what’s wrong with Norway?”

 

[Saddleworth2]

It can be made out to be seen as a misleading statement - it is nothing like as 'meaningless' as you have stated though is it

So let's try:

"We send the EU £181m each Week

Let's fund our NHS instead"

So that will work for you - surely?

Still a large amount of money - and certainly not 'meaningless'

Its still the wrong number.
So lets try:

" We send the EU £130m every week
in return the UK economy benefits by an estimated £78bn per year
That pays for 75% of the health service"

Still not wholly truthful but a damn sight more accurate than what you are attempting to defend.

 

[Blue Hefner]

What are the rules when it comes to a Manifesto for a General Election? Surely simply saying that we are leaving with no-deal is not enough. There has be some serious detail on how the damage(I think we all accept there will be damage?) will be mitigated or not and we just live with it but there be something documented for future reference?

 

[cibaman]

What tare the rules when it comes to a Manifesto for a General Election? Surely simply saying that we are leaving with no-deal is not enough. There has be some serious detail on how the damage(I think we all accept there will be damage?) will be mitigated or not and we just live with it but there be something documented for future reference?

There is only one rule when it comes to manifestos. Don’t believe them

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Fair analysis.
Traditional Labour seats in Leave areas will be a battleground between Labour and BXP. Traditional Tory Leave seats will be between the Tories, the BXP and Lib Dems. The Lib Dems will make gains in many Remain areas and the SNP and Lib Dems will clean up in Scotland. Where we end up is anyone's guess but I agree there won't be enough Tory/BXP seats to form a majority government between them.

It was not that long ago that Lib Dems had circa 55 seats. I would expect they will go a good way beyond this, between 60 and 100 as a reasonable estimate. The bulk of that will be taken of the tories. The bxp will do some damage in labour heartlands but at the same time they are an awful outfit and I could quite easily see them gaining nothing. You can not underestimate how much people in labour/leave heartland just default with there vote to labour. It is the big inner city labour seats that labour will los eand they will not go to the bxp - they will go to lib dem or tory if the vote split works against them.