Another new Brexit thread

[Magicpole]

I wonder if Bawbag will be looking for a couple of Old Etonian chums to give him a free pass? The power to shut up shop from the day after an election to the day before the next is what this comes down to.

There is no doubt he tried to use it to stop parliament discussing his hair brained scheme to leave without a deal.

Regardless of where you are on Brexit this cannot be allowed, or it opens the door for other dodgy lying bastards to make a mockery of our democracy.

The argument that it was solely about a queen’s speech, is as threadbare as the excuse I gave my missus when I got into company back in Glasgow and stayed for two days longer to make sure my brother wouldn’t get into bother, rather than the truth that I was on a bender.

It didn’t work out well for me and it shouldn’t for bawbag. The **** is at it. As I was.

 

[M18CTID]

Let's be honest that's not going to happen is it.
The conservatives are head charging into a no deal and unless there is some switch of government I don't see the current situation changing

I wouldn't be so certain on that just yet. I think there's probably more happening that we're not aware of. I do think Johnson has kind of backed himself into a corner though

 

[Neville Kneville]

I know there's little point in debating this, simply because the Lib Dems are never getting in, but if you think that they could just cancel Brexit and expect everything to be hunky dory dandy without it causing major unrest amongst the wider public then you're living in cloudcuckooland. And don't go thinking that it would be as simple as those who voted Leave vs those who voted Remain either, because there are Remainers out there who are strongly against the idea of revoking too.

If they won an overall majority, it would be fair enough, whether people like it or not, just as it would be if Farage or the Tories won an overall majority on a purely no deal ticket, which is what the cunts should be running on & not telling lies.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

I wouldn't be so certain on that just yet. I think there's probably more happening that we're not aware of. I do think Johnson has kind of backed himself into a corner though

I can't see it. He decided to shrink his negotiating team to a fraction of what it was under May.
If he really wanted a deal wouldn't he be stepping up the search for a deal?

 

[Vic]

Win what vote? She wouldn’t be sacking Johnson because he’d lost a vote of confidence, so doesn’t the existing government stay in power until it does lose one?

No. The Queen appoints the Cabinet on the recommendation of the Prime Minister. That would be fun.

 

[M18CTID]

I can't see it. He continues to shrink his negotiating team to a fraction of what it was under May.
If he really wanted a deal wouldn't he be stepping up the search for a deal?

To be fair, didn't he and Juncker agree yesterday to start talking on a daily basis? Of course, it might just be a 30 second chat and asking him how the weather is, etc, rather than any meaningful Brexit stuff!

 

[west didsblue]

True enough, and I'm a Leave voter who wants us out with a good deal. I think the difference is that they (the Tories) haven't totally nailed their colours to the No Deal mast despite what some are suggesting, whereas Swinson has totally nailed her colours to the revoke mast.

They most certainly have nailed their colours to the No Deal mast.
If they hadn't they would be making detailed proposals for an alternative to the backstop to the EU. So far they've produced fuck all apart from bluff and bluster. It's very clear that the ERG and much of the membership wouldn't accept anything that looks remotely like a soft Brexit and Johnson is pandering to them.
The fact that they haven't actually come out and said it is nothing to do with it not being the case. It's because Johnson is an out and out liar.

 

[blueinsa]

The Lib Dem’s will say that knowing full well they won’t have to deal with the political consequences of revoking because they won’t win the election - but they are likely to be the junior partner in a coalition which as a condition they will ask for a 2nd ref, being the next best thing to revoking in their eyes

If that was to happen, Remain would win by a landslide which could then potentially put the Lib Dem’s in a very good position in 4-5yrs time

I’m not necessarily advocating that position, it is just my take on their strategy

Don’t agree remain would win but what constitutes a landslide given a win by over 1 million votes last time wasn’t deemed enough?

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

To be fair, didn't he and Juncker agree yesterday to start talking on a daily basis? Of course, it might just be a 30 second chat and asking him how the weather is, etc, rather than any meaningful Brexit stuff!

I've not heard about that.
Most noises coming from Europe have been that there's very little negotiating going on between both parties, I don't trust anything that comes out of Johnson's mouth anymore.

https://www.dw.com/en/no-brexit-breakthrough-as-johnson-meets-juncker-eu-says/a-50444536

 

[M18CTID]

They most certainly have nailed their colours to the No Deal mast.
If they hadn't they would be making detailed proposals for an alternative to the backstop to the EU. So far they've produced fuck all apart from bluff and bluster. It's very clear that the ERG and much of the membership wouldn't accept anything that looks remotely like a soft Brexit and Johnson is pandering to them.
The fact that they haven't actually come out and said it is nothing to do with it not being the case. It's because Johnson is an out and out liar.

How can you say that for absolute certain? Do you have access to every discussion that is taking place at government level?

 

[M18CTID]

I've not heard about that.
Most noises coming from Europe have been that there's very little negotiating going on between both parties, I don't trust anything that comes out of Johnson's mouth anymore.

https://www.dw.com/en/no-brexit-breakthrough-as-johnson-meets-juncker-eu-says/a-50444536

From that same article:

"The leaders agreed that the discussions needed to intensify and that meetings would soon take place on a daily basis," a spokesman said. "It was agreed that talks should also take place at a political level between Michel Barnier and the Brexit Secretary, and conversations would also continue between President Juncker and the prime minister."

Granted it's come from Johnson's side but I don't see any denial from the EU side?

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

True enough, and I'm a Leave voter who wants us out with a good deal. I think the difference is that they (the Tories) haven't totally nailed their colours to the No Deal mast despite what some are suggesting, whereas Swinson has totally nailed her colours to the revoke mast.

Brexit was sold as vague concept. Ultimately we all have to pin down our views on the very specific outcomes or ways forward. The public is split across all of them. At least the Lib Dems are clear and have a workable way forward, Labour are somewhere spread across the remain / soft brexit positions and Tories have one foot in the deal camp and the other in no deal.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

From that same article:



Granted it's come from Johnson's side but I don't see any denial from the EU side?

I'll believe it when I see it from the EUs side tbh mate.
Johnson's actions over the last month or so have eradicated any belief or trust in his words I have. If he's willing to Iie to the Queen why would he be truthful to you or me?

 

[west didsblue]

How can you say that for absolute certain? Do you have access to every discussion that is taking place at government level?

Ok, it's not for absolute certain.
But looking at the evidence of no proposals being put to the EU and the number of times Johnson has been caught out lying, I would say that if it was a court case, it would be beyond reasonable doubt.

 

[M18CTID]

Brexit was sold as vague concept. Ultimately we all have to pin down our views on the very specific outcomes or ways forward. The public is split across all of them. At least the Lib Dems are clear and have a workable way forward, Labour are somewhere spread across the remain / soft brexit positions and Tories have one foot in the deal camp and the other in no deal.

That's all well and good, but my point was that going down the revoke route will cause serious unrest. If you don't agree then fine, but as a largely tolerant nation where the vast majority of us tend to suck things up, I can see that being a tipping point.

 

[west didsblue]

Brexit was sold as vague concept. Ultimately we all have to pin down our views on the very specific outcomes or ways forward. The public is split across all of them. At least the Lib Dems are clear and have a workable way forward, Labour are somewhere spread across the remain / soft brexit positions and Tories have one foot in the deal camp and the other in no deal.

The Tories as a whole may have a foot in both camps but their leader and most of the membership have both firmly planted in the No Deal camp.

 

[BobKowalski]

I know there's little point in debating this, simply because the Lib Dems are never getting in, but if you think that they could just cancel Brexit and expect everything to be hunky dory dandy without it causing major unrest amongst the wider public then you're living in cloudcuckooland. And don't go thinking that it would be as simple as those who voted Leave vs those who voted Remain either, because there are Remainers out there who are strongly against the idea of revoking too.

When we triggered A50 and were confidently demanding that the EU give us a good deal or be crushed a no deal Brexit was dismissed as cloudcuckooland and ‘project fear’. Fast forward nearly three years and it’s Govt policy.

Everytime we double down on Brexit we get an equally strong counter response. If a no deal Brexit is fine then revoking A50 is fine. They are opposite ends of the spectrum. If a major party can embrace no deal as legitimate policy then another party will embrace its alter ego of revoke. Each drives the other. And as people get used to the idea of no deal or revoke they get comfortable with the idea and no longer see them as extreme but as a simple solution. The longer it continues then no deal will morph into breaking off all diplomatic ties with some EU countries and revoke will become adopting the Euro.

And if people think this is unlikely well we have already started ‘empty chairing’ EU ministerial meetings and skipping public press conferences so the direction of travel is clear.

 

[Chris in London]

The European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Act 2019 imposes obligations on the UK PM. It has no impact on the EU.

Without a further extension, the EU Treaties cease to apply to the UK after 31 October (with or without an agreement under Article 50).

If Johnson breaks the UK law, and does not seek an extension, that has no impact on the Article 50 position. If he did refuse two things could happen (inter alia).

1. Johnson would face a court order to comply with the Act (and be in contempt if he didn't, then possibly imprisoned until he purged his contempt).

2. Parliament could pass an Act asking for an extension and the EU could decide that with the PM in prison they would take our sovereign Parliament as the appropriate constitutional authority to ask (even without royal assent).

There are other constitutional issues of course. One would be to test whether the monarch can appoint another PM in any circumstance without the existing PM resigning or dying (literally or figuratively in a ditch). Another would be to see if impeachment is really obsolete.

Or (3. Parliament votes to revoke Article 50 and the EU just says fine and by the time it gets to court we're de facto still a member state and the ultimate judicial decision would be in the ECJ!)

That’s not necessarily accurate. Article 50 says that a member state can leave in accordance with its own constitutional arrangements. There is much scope for argument that a country cannot be taken unlawfully (in terms of its own constitutional arrangements) out of the EU. The principle that you can’t benefit from your own wrongful act is of course one that is recognised in our own law as well as in other legal systems. The law of the UK is that Boris is compelled to seek an extension in the circumstances envisaged in the Act, and as Lord Sumption said last night there doesn’t seem to be any wiggle room in the Act. If he unlawfully fails to comply, the principle that a member can leave in accordance with its own constitutional arrangements might be offended.

It is of course ultimately a matter on which the ECJ would have to pronounce, if it actually arose, and there are as always arguments both ways. But I think there is a respectable argument to the effect that an act of Martyrdom by Boris by simply refusing to comply with the law would not lead to us crashing out without a deal in any event.

 

[west didsblue]

That's all well and good, but my point was that going down the revoke route will cause serious unrest. If you don't agree then fine, but as a largely tolerant nation where the vast majority of us tend to suck things up, I can see that being a tipping point.

I think Revoke will cause a few riots along the lines of the ones a few years ago when someone was shot by the police in London. Lowlife scum will use it as an opportunity to steal a new TV and it will blow over in a week or two in my opinion.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

From that same article:



Granted it's come from Johnson's side but I don't see any denial from the EU side?

The suspicion is that BoJo will look to agree something that stuffs NI and breaks the GFA. This will force either the EU or the HoC to vote it out. He will then demand an election and resign as PM but not as Party Leader. That forces no deal or Corbyn (most likely) to step in and get an extension but an election will be inevitable.

All this is just BoJo looking for his best route into the election. The deal or lack off is just a prop, he doesn't really care what is in it as he knows it will fail in the HoC - the timing is of more importance.