Good question - I think Corbyn as there are enough Corbyn nut jobs in the party that the rationales wont try it. But that said I think enough fringe Corbyn nutters are starting to see the light (the fact he is totally un-electable) and therefore I see the next contest as being a bit more balanced. The next leader will be a clear cut remainer and that rules out many of the lefty nut jobs that Cobyns mob might have wanted to slide in. I see the Corbyn leadership as coming toward the end.
Don't want to divert the thread - but I see it similar - with maybe a different outcome
1. There is a GE within the next 4 months
2. Labour do not win a majority or become the leader of a minority government
3. Corbyn decides to stand down
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We are agreed to this point and as I am not a natural Conservative voter but very passionate about Brexit it is the next part that is very important to me.
If Johnson gets a working majority then I am relaxed about what happens next - if he does not then I definitely do not want someone like Starmer - not because I am anti-Labour - I just do not want them becoming electable until Brexit is sorted.
So the next steps as I see them are:
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4. Labour candidates are put forwards and Starmer will be one of those as will the current deputy - but there will have been 'developments behind the scenes to ensure that there is a (very probable female) candidate that would be seen as the 'heir' to Corbyn by momentum.
5. Whilst the PLP might prefer Starmer as would millions of long-standing voters - the LP membership will ensure that it is the 'heir' that becomes leader.
For me - this was obvious from the machinations at conference to place the role of Deputy Leader under review - with the idea of a shared role - ideally a woman.