Another new Brexit thread

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Again, you are inferring "rules" which do not exist.

It would be silly to imagine that the EU will bend over and give us all of the benefits of EU membership with none of the obligations. But it is equally silly - and self-defeating - to imagine that what they are saying verbatim today is all that is possible. It matters not whether "no deal" is a lose-lose. The fact remains that for the EU it is a lose and that is something they do not want. If they can tempt us into a deal by offering some additional compromises then that is good for them, and that is what they will do.

It may be a bit like Boris acting like a madman with a gun, threatening to shoot himself. But he still has a gun and in that situation, I'd be taking any threats very seriously.

EDIT: And anyway, this is a pointless debate. Unlike 2 weeks ago, we are now in a situation where we can sit back and watch it unfold, not debate about whether it will/will not happen, what the pros/cons are and whether we should/should not. It's happening. Let's sit back and watch.

The whole rules thing has always been silly as they just do not matter with respect to trade.

Let's take this example - I make spanners and I want to make spanners to sell to the US, UK and EU.

So I make three spanners, one for each market which complies with the rules of all three markets.

If I sell my EU spanner tariff free to the EU then how am I infringing upon the integrity of the single market which means I can't do it tariff free?

If I have to have FOM to sell my spanners tariff free then that is a political blackmail argument essentially and not a trade argument.
 
Care to expand?
I have done so before at length. Can't be arsed doing so again as you don't listen.
The only difficulty is the change over. Still the Government have a transition plan for that now, which will start to roll out in June regardless of how negotiations go. That said with the amount of Remainers in the Civil Service, they may fuck that up on purpose.
 
I have done so before at length. Can't be arsed doing so again as you don't listen.
The only difficulty is the change over. Still they have a plan for that now, which will start to roll out in June regardless of how negotiations go. That said with the amount of Remainers in the Civil Service, they may fuck that up on purpose.
Predictable case of getting your blame in early when you know it's going to go tit's up. Blame some faceless bureaucrats rather than the arseholes who are actually delivering this shit.
 
I have done so before at length. Can't be arsed doing so again as you don't listen.
The only difficulty is the change over. Still the Government have a transition plan for that now, which will start to roll out in June regardless of how negotiations go. That said with the amount of Remainers in the Civil Service, they may fuck that up on purpose.
Yeah.
Right.
 
I agree with this bit.

The EU SM/CU is a binary concept. We might be able to tinker around the edges and put some spin on the outcome but at the core we will be either in or out. The leave politicians have never really accepted this, they talk up a deal as if there is the option of everything we have no with none of the costs and obligations - never going to happen, access comes hand in hand with the rule book. Denial of this fact is a brick wall they are hurtling at. I see this heading in exactly the same direction as T May and the Chequers meeting. It will come to a head and people will lose their shit when the details come out.

We have no choice but to sit back and watch.

In fairness, and at least when it comes to rhetoric, the UK has now accepted there will be costs and obligations ie we will be imposing tariffs on imports whereas a few months back we were going to go for zero tariffs. Equally the UK is still in denial about the cost of doing this and has taken no steps to adequately prepare for it. Instead we are prattling on about free ports and bridges. So in the sense of meaningful preparation or businesses being fully aware of the problems ahead you are right to say people will lose their shit when the details come out.

The other purpose of all this talk about tariffs and trade friction is get everyone increasingly hysterical and then capitulate on the key issues with the EU plus agree a proper ‘implementation period’ and then declare all the doomsayers were wrong and victory is at hand. The press will buy it, Brexiteers will buy it, @Chippy_boy will announce he has been saying this would happen for months (with some justification) and the rest of us will be fine with it.
 
The whole rules thing has always been silly as they just do not matter with respect to trade.

Let's take this example - I make spanners and I want to make spanners to sell to the US, UK and EU.

So I make three spanners, one for each market which complies with the rules of all three markets.

If I sell my EU spanner tariff free to the EU then how am I infringing upon the integrity of the single market which means I can't do it tariff free?

If I have to have FOM to sell my spanners tariff free then that is a political blackmail argument essentially and not a trade argument.
You may be able to sell it tariff free, if there's an agreement in place, but if uk and eu standards on spanners are different then it'll need an export license and could be subject to inspections at point of entry. Additional financial costs and additional delivery times, making your spanner a less attractive prospect than a german spanner that's cheaper and arrives sooner.
 
The whole rules thing has always been silly as they just do not matter with respect to trade.

Let's take this example - I make spanners and I want to make spanners to sell to the US, UK and EU.

So I make three spanners, one for each market which complies with the rules of all three markets.

If I sell my EU spanner tariff free to the EU then how am I infringing upon the integrity of the single market which means I can't do it tariff free?

If I have to have FOM to sell my spanners tariff free then that is a political blackmail argument essentially and not a trade argument.

The vast majority of goods have to comply with some level of standards - A spanner might be simple but something like farming has really high / complex standards, if you are in the EU then you meet the standard by law and there is zero barrier to your goods being sold anywhere in the EU, you also have access to the same subsidy and you pay zero tariff. If you are outside then you have a world of complexity to access the market and you may have tariffs to pay. If you drop your standards to make things cheaper the EU would just up the Tariff to protect their own industry. That is how trade works, being on the inside of a trade deal is always better and every trade deal has a political element.
 
The whole rules thing has always been silly as they just do not matter with respect to trade.

Let's take this example - I make spanners and I want to make spanners to sell to the US, UK and EU.

So I make three spanners, one for each market which complies with the rules of all three markets.

If I sell my EU spanner tariff free to the EU then how am I infringing upon the integrity of the single market which means I can't do it tariff free?

If I have to have FOM to sell my spanners tariff free then that is a political blackmail argument essentially and not a trade argument.

Seriously try again. International trade runs on laws, rules, regs, binding treaties, dispute mechanisms and fights over legal jurisdiction.

WTO, Sector deals, FTA’s, Single Market, Unified Market all governed by rules and laws.

Make yourself a cup of tea and rethink your life.
 
The bottom line is, if the EU is happy to piss away a £68bn balance of trade surplus with the UK, then they are indeed an organisation best to be out of.
 
In fairness, and at least when it comes to rhetoric, the UK has now accepted there will be costs and obligations ie we will be imposing tariffs on imports whereas a few months back we were going to go for zero tariffs. Equally the UK is still in denial about the cost of doing this and has taken no steps to adequately prepare for it. Instead we are prattling on about free ports and bridges. So in the sense of meaningful preparation or businesses being fully aware of the problems ahead you are right to say people will lose their shit when the details come out.

The other purpose of all this talk about tariffs and trade friction is get everyone increasingly hysterical and then capitulate on the key issues with the EU plus agree a proper ‘implementation period’ and then declare all the doomsayers were wrong and victory is at hand. The press will buy it, Brexiteers will buy it, @Chippy_boy will announce he has been saying this would happen for months (with some justification) and the rest of us will be fine with it.

True but will a long lead in really be enough of a sweetener if the terms are basically no deal with nobs on. It wont be more than 5 years and that is the only timescale that matters. A long drawn out demise being sold as better than a cliff edge?
 
The bottom line is, if the EU is happy to piss away a £68bn balance of trade surplus with the UK, then they are indeed an organisation best to be out of.

Lol. We engineer a shit deal scenario and blame the EU for not coming up with a better one. They are offering and pushing a soft deal that is better for all involved,. We wont have it - we are talking up no deal. Yeah we best be out of that cos its all them. Look how stupid they are.....
 
The bottom line is, if the EU is happy to piss away a £68bn balance of trade surplus with the UK, then they are indeed an organisation best to be out of.

That isn’t the bottom line. For 27 European countries protecting the Single Market and the volume of unimpeded business that is done by those countries within that market is the bottom line.

The UK is still going to buy European goods. It will just cost more for UK consumers via tariffs and other increased costs through increased friction and conversely cost more for UK firms exporting to the Single Market. That is what Brexit means.
 
The bottom line is, if the EU is happy to piss away a £68bn balance of trade surplus with the UK, then they are indeed an organisation best to be out of.
Why would a £68bn surplus be pissed away?
We still want our Mercs, brie and olive oil. They still want their fish.
The main difference is that we'll buy less because it'll more expensive and they'll purchase their Financial Services from continental Europe based branches of City of London companies. Our car exports to Europe will also mostly dry up as they'll move production for the EU market to production lines there. So in reality their surplus will probably increase albeit against a backdrop of less trade overall.
 
That healing process doesn't happen overnight does it fella:-)
No idea what you're on about.
I'll make the best of it as I'm sure most people will.
Doesn't mean it'll be a roaring success and imo we will end up signing up for a deal that maintains alignment on most things, with us agreeing to follow 90% of EU regs making us only marginally worse off but with no say. On the other hand, if the government deliver what they are saying they will, it will be much much worse for the vast majority.
 
Why would a £68bn surplus be pissed away?
We still want our Mercs, brie and olive oil. They still want their fish.
The main difference is that we'll buy less because it'll more expensive and they'll purchase their Financial Services from continental Europe based branches of City of London companies. Our car exports to Europe will also mostly dry up as they'll move production for the EU market to production lines there. So in reality their surplus will probably increase albeit against a backdrop of less trade overall.
This is as well as kirk douglas dieing, coronavirus, and Phil Schofield turning gay. The ikea shutting in Coventry is likely the first of many also.
 
So in reality their surplus will probably increase albeit against a backdrop of less trade overall.

Fully agree with that. UK based business will move into the EU to avoid the border frictions and sell into the UK - this will happen on a huge scale. A very small amount of EU businesses will relocate the other way. The trade that happens across the border will continue but just with higher costs and therefore lower volumes and lower profits.

The move in financial services companies and large scale manufacturing might fully offset the negatives from the trade in goods from the EU over a medium / longer term time frame.
 
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