Another new Brexit thread

[blueinsa]

There is an argument, and it's an argument that post brexit will put the UK as it exists under enormous pressure. Pressure that IMO will lead to the break up over the next 10-20 years.

EU will be gone before our union.

 

[Chippy_boy]

But it's even more nuanced than that because whilst it may be to the club's benefit to have Tiger Woods still show his face there, the club has other considerations that may outweigh that. Firstly they don't want other important members of the club to see that you can leave but still come back and play in your shorts but more importantly the club is arguably the biggest and best gold club in the world so they know that Tiger needs to play there more than they need him to play there. So they can let him leave with no access to the course and wait it out, knowing Tiger's position will be even weaker once he has left with no access and that he will more than likely have to come back begging to be allowed to play the odd round once he realises that being confined to playing pitch and putt in Wythenshawe Park for a good while is severely affecting his game.

Of course, all of the above are factors. As is the club wanting him to still play at the club.

 

[blueparrot]

EU will be gone before our union.

Not a chance.

 

[west didsblue]

There will not be friction between NI and ROI, that is the entire point of doing customs checks at the ports.

There will be friction in services, which is what he said.

 

[bluethrunthru]

That may be so but fishing is 0.01% of the UK economy. I seriously struggle to understand why it’s been such a major point for leave voters and the campaign and now for remain voters to throw back at them.

but all those "red wall" fishing port seats are gonna feel pretty let down when their trawlers land fish somewhere else. And if the fish get landed in Ulster then why wouldn't all those processing jobs in places like Grimsby follow? I mean you can make fish fingers anywhere but cheapest and tariff free is probably the most appealing to Birds Eye etc.

 

[blueinsa]

Not a chance.

You may well be right but i will just throw that right back at you with regards your prediction.

 

[Ban-jani]

There is an argument, and it's an argument that post brexit will put the UK as it exists under enormous pressure. Pressure that IMO will lead to the break up over the next 10-20 years.

It will put it under pressure but ultimately it won’t lead to break up, not Great Britain anyway, as Scotland or Wales would then be outside the EU and UK, which would be catastrophic for them. I believe the reality of this will come to light when the Scottish Indyref2 picks up momentum.

I do think Ireland may unify in future. It’s a far more reasonable and easier thing for them to do than for any other members to become independent.

 

[Ban-jani]

There will be friction in services, which is what he said.

There won’t.

 

[west didsblue]

Not a chance.

Based on the fact that the existing 27 members can see what a fuck up Brexit appears to be, there is no serious appetite for a breakaway. In addition, with the exception of Belarus and Russia, every non-member who is not in the EEA wants to join. Really looks ready for a break up!
On the other hand, Scotland would be too close to call if granted a referendum and with the WA not involving local opinion in NI and Stormont back in session it would make an NI breakaway a distinct possibility in the medium term.

 

[west didsblue]

There won’t.

Based on what?

 

[west didsblue]

It will put it under pressure but ultimately it won’t lead to break up, not Great Britain anyway, as Scotland or Wales would then be outside the EU and UK, which would be catastrophic for them. I believe the reality of this will come to light when the Scottish Indyref2 picks up momentum.

I do think Ireland may unify in future. It’s a far more reasonable and easier thing for them to do than for any other members to become independent.

Someone posted a picture of UK fishing areas the other day and the vast majority were Scottish waters. As the EU seem quite keen to maintain access to those waters, a Scottish breakaway from the UK could easily be coupled with a tacit promise from the EU that quick accession would be granted in exchange for fishing rights in Scottish waters.

 

[blueparrot]

You may well be right but i will just throw that right back at you with regards your prediction.

We were told the UK would leave as one under the same deal, the WA has already changed that the cracks between the UK and N. ireland will only get wider the more the final deal with the EU diverges. The more N.Ireland is treated differently and diverges from the UK the more Scotland is denied any divergence from the English brexit the more cracks will appear the more support for a breakaway will grow. All pressure put on the union for no apparent benefit to anyone.

 

[Ban-jani]

Based on what?

The fact they are in the Single Market.

Where is the friction coming from?

 

[Ban-jani]

Someone posted a picture of UK fishing areas the other day and the vast majority were Scottish waters. As the EU seem quite keen to maintain access to those waters, a Scottish breakaway from the UK could easily be coupled with a tacit promise from the EU that quick accession would be granted in exchange for fishing rights in Scottish waters.

Fishing is 0.01% of GDP. It’s absolutely minuscule when talking about the economy.

The reason we are even talking about it as it was leave propaganda, that remainers have fallen for by using it as propaganda themselves now.

It doesn’t even register as important to anyone negotiating. The government and the EU are only using it to appease their citizens who care about it, the ones that don’t know how unimportant it is.

 

[west didsblue]

Fishing is 0.01% of GDP. It’s absolutely minuscule when talking about the economy.

The reason we are even talking about it as it was leave propaganda, that remainers have fallen for by using it as propaganda themselves now.

It doesn’t even register as important to anyone negotiating. The government and the EU are only using it to appease their citizens who care about it, the ones that don’t know how unimportant it is.

Seems it's quite important to the EU who want an agreement on fish before moving on to the main talks. That means it can be used as a significant bargaining point by the UK in spite of its lack of importance to our economy. This makes it much more likely that the UK would not risk a Scottish vote in the short term in order to maintain our UK-wide fish position. This would increase resentment amongst the population in Scotland making a vote in the medium term more likely to lead to a breakaway, especially if the EU make accession promises based on access to Scottish waters.

 

[aguero93:20]

So our dealings with the EU wont change...nor will our our dealing with GB? That seems a bit simple....or can everything just come through NI, with no restrictions? Surely there going to be some sort of barrier (dare i say, border) between NI and GB and also NI and RoI....to me, this suggests isolating us even more. We wont be able to trade/move freely from NI to RoI....and stuff going to GB from I will be restricted, depending on origin?

You'll be more attractive than either Britain or the ROI as unlike either you'll have the best of both worlds.

 

[journolud]

So, Tiger Woods. Is he in or out?

 

[Ban-jani]

Seems it's quite important to the EU who want an agreement on fish before moving on to the main talks. That means it can be used as a significant bargaining point by the UK in spite of its lack of importance to our economy. This makes it much more likely that the UK would not risk a Scottish vote in the short term in order to maintain our UK-wide fish position. This would increase resentment amongst the population in Scotland making a vote in the medium term more likely to lead to a breakaway, especially if the EU make accession promises based on access to Scottish waters.

As I’ve said, it’s only important to the EU from the perspective of symbolism.

Scotland isn’t getting a short term vote regardless of this. Johnson wrote a letter to Sturgeon outlining this already, it’s old news.

 

[Ban-jani]

So, Tiger Woods. Is he in or out?

He’s in and out very quickly looking at his personal life.

 

[west didsblue]

As I’ve said, it’s only important to the EU from the perspective of symbolism.

Scotland isn’t getting a short term vote regardless of this. Johnson wrote a letter to Sturgeon outlining this already, it’s old news.

I also said Scotland aren't getting a short term vote. This increases the chance of a medium term (5-10 years) vote resulting in independence, particularly if Brexit ends up being demonstrably shit.