Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

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The perfect fumble said:
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Haha
 
The perfect fumble said:
It beggars belief how so many leavers still cling to the idea that we will dictate the pace and the terms of our exit. The tussle within cabinet is symptomatic of the dysfunctional state of this Tory government, but even Hammond, the most rational cabinet minister in this collection of fantasists, is living in a dream world if he thinks that the terms of the transitional phase of Brexit, assuming the remaining 27 grant one, will be dictated in Whitehall.

We will have to accept whatever the 27 are willing to offer, there is no other plausible scenario.
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Why? You are assuming that the 27 are going to be united on their demands, some countries would accept any deal likewise to prevent the loss of UK trade. Poland just for example will certainly not care too much about the wishes of the Germans as opposed to keeping its citizens ability to work here. In fact it is probably the Germans and the bigger countries who stand to lose most so the lobbying power there will be huge to keep things sweet.

It isn't as simple as the EU is this all powerful entity who we must bow down to because they are so mighty, just for a start they will collectively lose far more than we will that is almost completely certain. Just for a start they will lose the hundreds of billions we send every year and that is a huge problem given the potential for change to future spending. We on the other hand will regain all of this money in the worst possible scenario which could be used to at least cushion the change.

In my opinion we should contribute but contribute less to keep free trade free whilst retaining what we want, it is either that or they lose hundreds of billions along with the free trade that we AND they enjoy.

We are in a good position but it will take a long time to sort, I really wouldn't write us off quite so easily because we are a massive country by weight, it is finding the right balance and giving THEM everything they want by accepting any offer would be ridiculous.

The biggest threat in all of this is not the reality but the politics of the scenario, that is the EU will potentially put power ahead of common sense and that would be a disaster for everyone. Leaving common sense off the table will result in a long drawn out exit where uncertainty prevails and basically no-one gets a good deal.
 
inbetween said:
Why? You are assuming that the 27 are going to be united on their demands, some countries would accept any deal likewise to prevent the loss of UK trade. Poland just for example will certainly not care too much about the wishes of the Germans as opposed to keeping its citizens ability to work here. In fact it is probably the Germans and the bigger countries who stand to lose most so the lobbying power there will be huge to keep things sweet.

It isn't as simple as the EU is this all powerful entity who we must bow down to because they are so mighty, just for a start they will collectively lose far more than we will that is almost completely certain. Just for a start they will lose the hundreds of billions we send every year and that is a huge problem given the potential for change to future spending. We on the other hand will regain all of this money in the worst possible scenario which could be used to at least cushion the change.

In my opinion we should contribute but contribute less to keep free trade free whilst retaining what we want, it is either that or they lose hundreds of billions along with the free trade that we AND they enjoy.

We are in a good position but it will take a long time to sort, I really wouldn't write us off quite so easily because we are a massive country by weight, it is finding the right balance and giving THEM everything they want by accepting any offer would be ridiculous.

The biggest threat in all of this is not the reality but the politics of the scenario, that is the EU will potentially put power ahead of common sense and that would be a disaster for everyone. Leaving common sense off the table will result in a long drawn out exit where uncertainty prevails and basically no-one gets a good deal.
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I think it's more that the 27 will sort out a common position and present that.
I expect that they would deal with individual issues by guaranteeing that an individual country would not lose out overall, and these cannot then be a weakness to the 27.

It's kind of like the UK should do/have done (delete as appropriate), but it has such polarisation between e.g. Scotland and England, and the Irish border situation to sort out.

I suspect the EU and the UK views on what is common sense are markedly different.
 
inbetween said:
It isn't as simple as the EU is this all powerful entity who we must bow down to because they are so mighty, just for a start they will collectively lose far more than we will that is almost completely certain. Just for a start they will lose the hundreds of billions we send every year.
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"Hundreds of billions we send every year"?
I thought our net contribution was £8bn last year.
 
inbetween said:
In fact it is probably the Germans and the bigger countries who stand to lose most so the lobbying power there will be huge to keep things sweet.
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Germany are the country most politically and economically committed to the EU.
As regards the economics, the Euro is a massive benefit to Germany who are a hugely successful exporting nation.If it were not for the single currency they would have a strong and overpriced Deutschmark which would severely reduce the competitiveness of their exports.
Hence it is Germany's interests first and foremost to have a strong EU and anything that jeopardizes the existence of the bloc ( for instance by giving an existing member a good economic deal to leave) represents a major risk to the German economy.
Sure there will be some lobbying by German industry but they know which side their bread is buttered on.
 
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