Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

[cibaman]

So I see Labour are already abandoning their failed manifesto.


You can remove the word hard as we all know remaining in the Single Market means remaining in the EU.

I don't think the issue is whether we leave the single market. I think its now widely accepted that legally leaving the EU means legally leaving the single market. The question really is whether we try to build a relationship outside of the single market which retains some of the benefits of the single market. Or whether total control over immigration remains the overriding red line objective, with no scope for compromise.

And also, how quickly do we leave the single market? An insane two year timetable or a phased withdrawal?

 

[Bewar3them00n]

Under May we have been acting the school bully, bossing the rest of the U.K. Around, giving it the tough talk shpeil, Corbyn gave May a bloody nose and it's been downhill ever since, the rest of Europe see she is weakened, visibly rocked by the past month of elections, attacks and Grenfall disaster, May is now scrambling around to rescue he faltering reputation, the DUP are playing hardball, with years of tough negotiations under their belts and the state of Nick Clegg and the Liberals after the Tories were done with them a visible reminder, they aren't about to be all starry eyed.
Our first few days of Brexit negotiations have left The Tories winded, the sudden realisation the Europe will not budge, and if we are to leave, that pound of flesh will have to be cut, or be brought whimpering to heel saying it was all a big mistake.
Whichever way you look at it, it's been a fucking disaster for May, that she hasn't fallen on her sword yet is surprising.
Like a drunk at the bar insisting they're perfectly fine to drive home, clutching the car keys in a deathly grip as the rest of the party try to convince her it's not a good idea, if ever there was a time for a u- turn, now Theresa, is the time

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I can't speak for all remainers, just for myself. I don't think anybody wants the economy to go down the pan just to prove that we were right all along. However, the fear is that if Brexit is taken to it's conclusion then that is what is likely to happen. Everything that has happened so far, the Pound, inflation, political turmoil and disarray, lack of vision and a coherent strategy, has reinforced our fears that the whole Brexit project is being fueled by ideological zeal with the economy and welfare of society coming a very poor and distant second.

Yes, that's how I view people's opinion too.
Some would like the political fallout of it turning into a mess, but don't actually want the economy to disintegrate to get that - can't really have both at the same time, and the economy not tanking is more important.

 

[The perfect fumble]

I'd be interested to know.

Did any leavers here think that leaving the EU would be good for the economy, in the short to medium term?

 

[BobKowalski]

i agree. labour ran on leaving the single market and ending FOM, if they go against that they have just lied to the public. there in a mess with their brexit position.

Not convinced that it matters. Europe and the EU has been a Tory issue for decades. Brexit is a Tory issue. The referendum occurred under a Tory Govt (it wouldn't have taken place under a Labour Govt), the fallout from Sterling devaluation to political chaos has been triggered by Tory decisions. The Brexit negotiations all under Tory control. Future fallout will be Tory owned. No one cares what Labour thinks as it is not a Labour issue and Labour can change its stance as the fallout spreads and public sentiment shifts. Tories will be stuck with this shitstain for years.

 

[BlueHammer85]

I'd be interested to know.

Did any leavers here think that leaving the EU would be good for the economy, in the short to medium term?

I'm pretty sure most leavers knew there would be a rocky period before stability

 

[BobKowalski]

I'd be interested to know.

Did any leavers here think that leaving the EU would be good for the economy, in the short to medium term?

One thing I have noticed is how the mood music has changed. An absence of 'they need us more than we need them', 'German carmakers will force the EU to cut a deal in our favour' etc. It's goodbye sunny uplands and unicorns; instead it's Hammond warning about no deal being bad for us and the BoE saying there will be no cake. It's now all about minimising damage and nothing about benefits.

 

[BobKowalski]

I'm pretty sure most leavers knew there would be a rocky period before stability

Really? Pretty sure anyone saying there would be a rocky period was dismissed as 'Project Fear'. We were told it would be easy and the NHS would be swimming in extra cash. 'The EU needs us more than we need them'. 'The EU is a basket case on the verge of collapse'. Remember? It was only a short year ago.

 

[west didsblue]

Under May we have been acting the school bully, bossing the rest of the U.K. Around, giving it the tough talk shpeil, Corbyn gave May a bloody nose and it's been downhill ever since, the rest of Europe see she is weakened, visibly rocked by the past month of elections, attacks and Grenfall disaster, May is now scrambling around to rescue he faltering reputation, the DUP are playing hardball, with years of tough negotiations under their belts and the state of Nick Clegg and the Liberals after the Tories were done with them a visible reminder, they aren't about to be all starry eyed.
Our first few days of Brexit negotiations have left The Tories winded, the sudden realisation the Europe will not budge, and if we are to leave, that pound of flesh will have to be cut, or be brought whimpering to heel saying it was all a big mistake.
Whichever way you look at it, it's been a fucking disaster for May, that she hasn't fallen on her sword yet is surprising.
Like a drunk at the bar insisting they're perfectly fine to drive home, clutching the car keys in a deathly grip as the rest of the party try to convince her it's not a good idea, if ever there was a time for a u- turn, now Theresa, is the time

The Conservatives will keep her in place for the next few months to take the brunt of the flak about the terrorist incidents (police cuts), the Grenfell fire (fire service cuts and lax regulations), concessions to the DUP and climbdowns in the early parts of the Brexit negotiations. Once that's out of the way they'll get rid.
I reckon we'll end up with a Switzerland like deal - out of the single market but with market access for most things and freedom of movement for most but not all EU citizens. This will be agreed by the new prime minister and will be trumpeted as a great success even though the EU will have got 99% of what it wants.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I don't think the issue is whether we leave the single market. I think its now widely accepted that legally leaving the EU means legally leaving the single market. The question really is whether we try to build a relationship outside of the single market which retains some of the benefits of the single market. Or whether total control over immigration remains the overriding red line objective, with no scope for compromise.

And also, how quickly do we leave the single market? An insane two year timetable or a phased withdrawal?

The lack of any kind of articulated vision for what we actually want is simply astonishing. In the year since the vote it appears that other than triggering article 50, nothing has been done to plan our end point round single market and customs agreements. I always believed that the key to a successful negotiation is to be clear about what you want from it. It is clear that we don't have that. The other thing that I can't believe is the lack of serious mobilisation to support the brexit programme of work. The Guardian is reporting today that 750 senior civil servant policy makers will be transferred from existing departments to brexit workstreams. Fuck sake, that should have happened months and months ago. They could have been preparing our negotiating position for the commencement of talks. The other point to make is that those civil servants will not be replaced or backfilled, so whatever work they thought they would be doing in the next two years won't happen. This government is showing they are completely incapable of running something of this size and complexity. They lack the intellectual power and the leadership drive to execute this. It was always going to be bumpy but with the sheer incompetence of its execution it will be a disaster.

 

[Metal Biker]

Really? Pretty sure anyone saying there would be a rocky period was dismissed as 'Project Fear'. We were told it would be easy and the NHS would be swimming in extra cash. 'The EU needs us more than we need them'. 'The EU is a basket case on the verge of collapse'. Remember? It was only a short year ago.

No, the Project Fear label was aimed at those who said it would never, ever recover, that we'd be heading not just for a period of financial instability, but national ruin and plagues, World War Three, how the nation was nothing without the EU, how we were 'dependant'. Project Fear was aimed at those who refused to debate on how a nation could prosper outside of the EU with an "it can't" attitude, when there were others giving examples of how it can be done, what will change in order to achieve it and what aspects would likely be affected and the time for 'recovery'. I don't try and explain or even question why remainers voted the way they did, i'm sure they had their reasons, yet I don't understand why remainers like to wax lyrical about the mindset of a Leave voter, how "misguided" it was in their attempts to dismiss their arguments to further justify their own lofty opinions of morality about the subject, demeaning their point of view to being mislead by a bus slogan about the NHS.

They voted leave for reasons other than financial as well, that is something that still isn't being addressed. People didn't vote the way they did solely on the basis of a slogan on a bus. To continually use the bus slogan to dismiss the concerns and reasons that people voted to leave the EU is to be avoidant of the many other concerns people had about the EU; the expansionism, the federalism, the excessive bureaucracy, the excessive control over people's lives such as moving industry, agriculture to certain areas of Europe, fishing laws etc. refusing to accept referendum results on the Lisbon Treaty whic afforded them more power, the move towards the eradication of national sovereignty, the mentality of a 'superstate' which they do not wish to belong to but were being coerced through processes they could not cancel or influence. It was a nice idea once but has since lost it's way, becoming authoritarian and wishing to be seen as a 'world power'. People asked for it to be reformed and they point blank refused to, saying "this it the right way for Europe". Leavers disagreed. Not everything is about money, they wanted a return to what we thought we were joining in 1975; a TRADE union, not a political organisation.

But how about them free mobile phone roaming charges!

 

[The perfect fumble]

One thing I have noticed is how the mood music has changed. An absence of 'they need us more than we need them', 'German carmakers will force the EU to cut a deal in our favour' etc. It's goodbye sunny uplands and unicorns; instead it's Hammond warning about no deal being bad for us and the BoE saying there will be no cake. It's now all about minimising damage and nothing about benefits.

There's no doubt the mood music has changed, it's all about minimising damage and how hard the grind will be.

Seems the EU has a different take on this process than we do! Who'd have thought it!

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

Really? Pretty sure anyone saying there would be a rocky period was dismissed as 'Project Fear'. We were told it would be easy and the NHS would be swimming in extra cash. 'The EU needs us more than we need them'. 'The EU is a basket case on the verge of collapse'. Remember? It was only a short year ago.

i dont think anyone thought it would be easy, but the projections of doom from the remain camp in the referendum haven't happened. the economy is relatively still in a good position, it might get worse, but i dont think it will that much. we were meant to be in recession now with an economy crashing. reality is we wont really now the impact for maybe 2- 3 years and even then things could improve. the eu and different markets do need us and the eu isn't in a great position really. I think the eu do want a superstate anyway and want to merge all financal/ military together. i can't see them wanting us to be part of that or us wanting to be part of that.

 

[BobKowalski]

No, the Project Fear label was aimed at those who said it would never, ever recover, that we'd be heading not just for a period of financial instability, but national ruin and plagues, World War Three, how the nation was nothing without the EU, how we were 'dependant'. Project Fear was aimed at those who refused to debate on how a nation could prosper outside of the EU with an "it can't" attitude, when there were others giving examples of how it can be done, what will change in order to achieve it and what aspects would likely be affected and the time for 'recovery'. I don't try and explain or even question why remainers voted the way they did, i'm sure they had their reasons, yet I don't understand why remainers like to wax lyrical about the mindset of a Leave voter, how "misguided" it was in their attempts to dismiss their arguments to further justify their own lofty opinions of morality about the subject, demeaning their point of view to being mislead by a bus slogan about the NHS.

They voted leave for reasons other than financial as well, that is something that still isn't being addressed. People didn't vote the way they did solely on the basis of a slogan on a bus. To continually use the bus slogan to dismiss the concerns and reasons that people voted to leave the EU is to be avoidant of the many other concerns people had about the EU; the expansionism, the federalism, the excessive bureaucracy, the excessive control over people's lives such as moving industry, agriculture to certain areas of Europe, fishing laws etc. refusing to accept referendum results on the Lisbon Treaty whic afforded them more power, the move towards the eradication of national sovereignty, the mentality of a 'superstate' which they do not wish to belong to but were being coerced through processes they could not cancel or influence. It was a nice idea once but has since lost it's way, becoming authoritarian and wishing to be seen as a 'world power'. People asked for it to be reformed and they point blank refused to, saying "this it the right way for Europe". Leavers disagreed. Not everything is about money, they wanted a return to what we thought we were joining in 1975; a TRADE union, not a political organisation.

But how about them free mobile phone roaming charges!

Nah. It's was the NHS and immigrants that tipped it. In any campaign it is one or two messages that resonate and capture the zeitgeist. The messages that strike a chord with people's concerns at that moment in time. The NHS struggling under the austerity program so an extra £350m a week sounds like hope and hope sells. And then we have immigrants with a public pickled nicely in the fetid juice of the Mail et al but also there was an underlying concern all tied back to the strain on public services especially the NHS and back to our old friend austerity.

Good old austerity. Still grating on the public and totally missed by the Tories at the GE. Labour picked up that ball and just ran and ran with it. The next GE whenever that may be is going to fascinating.

 

[The perfect fumble]

No, the Project Fear label was aimed at those who said it would never, ever recover, that we'd be heading not just for a period of financial instability, but national ruin and plagues, World War Three, how the nation was nothing without the EU, how we were 'dependant'. Project Fear was aimed at those who refused to debate on how a nation could prosper outside of the EU with an "it can't" attitude, when there were others giving examples of how it can be done, what will change in order to achieve it and what aspects would likely be affected and the time for 'recovery'. I don't try and explain or even question why remainers voted the way they did, i'm sure they had their reasons, yet I don't understand why remainers like to wax lyrical about the mindset of a Leave voter, how "misguided" it was in their attempts to dismiss their arguments to further justify their own lofty opinions of morality about the subject, demeaning their point of view to being mislead by a bus slogan about the NHS.

They voted leave for reasons other than financial as well, that is something that still isn't being addressed. People didn't vote the way they did solely on the basis of a slogan on a bus. To continually use the bus slogan to dismiss the concerns and reasons that people voted to leave the EU is to be avoidant of the many other concerns people had about the EU; the expansionism, the federalism, the excessive bureaucracy, the excessive control over people's lives such as moving industry, agriculture to certain areas of Europe, fishing laws etc. refusing to accept referendum results on the Lisbon Treaty whic afforded them more power, the move towards the eradication of national sovereignty, the mentality of a 'superstate' which they do not wish to belong to but were being coerced through processes they could not cancel or influence. It was a nice idea once but has since lost it's way, becoming authoritarian and wishing to be seen as a 'world power'. People asked for it to be reformed and they point blank refused to, saying "this it the right way for Europe". Leavers disagreed. Not everything is about money, they wanted a return to what we thought we were joining in 1975; a TRADE union, not a political organisation.

But how about them free mobile phone roaming charges!

Yeah, Rule Britannia....I think you'll find for most folk it was about immigration and now even that's been downplayed to control rather than limit.

It's bizarre, leavers are being mugged and they don't seem to notice it.

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

Not convinced that it matters. Europe and the EU has been a Tory issue for decades. Brexit is a Tory issue. The referendum occurred under a Tory Govt (it wouldn't have taken place under a Labour Govt), the fallout from Sterling devaluation to political chaos has been triggered by Tory decisions. The Brexit negotiations all under Tory control. Future fallout will be Tory owned. No one cares what Labour thinks as it is not a Labour issue and Labour can change its stance as the fallout spreads and public sentiment shifts. Tories will be stuck with this shitstain for years.

i disagree mate. it is a tory issue in the main. but the problem for labour is they are in a mess in regards to brexit. there are lots of leave voters who voted for labour based on their manifesto promises and what their mps had to say - end FOM, out of the single market. I think people will feel like theyve been lied to if labour go back on this. this is a huge disconnect between working class labour voters and wealthier/metropolitan labor voters.

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

Yeah, Rule Britannia....I think you'll find for most folk it was about immigration and now even that's been downplayed to control rather than limit.

It's bizarre, leavers are being mugged and they don't seem to notice it.

so what if it was mainly about immigration ? people have legitimate concerns and going off pretty much every opinion poll people want it controlled or reduced. i don't see anything wrong with that. people voted for other things as well. i think it was mainly immigration, laws and having the british government solely in charge. it was less about the economy.

 

[Metal Biker]

Nah. It's was the NHS and immigrants that tipped it. In any campaign it is one or two messages that resonate and capture the zeitgeist. The messages that strike a chord with people's concerns at that moment in time. The NHS struggling under the austerity program so an extra £350m a week sounds like hope and hope sells. And then we have immigrants with a public pickled nicely in the fetid juice of the Mail et al but also there was an underlying concern all tied back to the strain on public services especially the NHS and back to our old friend austerity.

Good old austerity. Still grating on the public and totally missed by the Tories at the GE. Labour picked up that ball and just ran and ran with it. The next GE whenever that may be is going to fascinating.

I didn't think it was possible, but you may have just outcliched yourself.

People voted the way they did based on ending austerity? Hmm, remind me which organisation insisted upon austerity for it's member states again?

 

[BobKowalski]

i dont think anyone thought it would be easy, but the projections of doom from the remain camp in the referendum haven't happened. the economy is relatively still in a good position, it might get worse, but i dont think it will that much. we were meant to be in recession now with an economy crashing. reality is we wont really now the impact for maybe 2- 3 years and even then things could improve. the eu and different markets do need us and the eu isn't in a great position really. I think the eu do want a superstate anyway and want to merge all financal/ military together. i can't see them wanting us to be part of that or us wanting to be part of that.

No we were told by the Leave campaign it would be easy. A lot of people thought it would be easy because they were told it would be easy and Project Fear was a myth. It was sunny uplands and no downside. Striking a deal with the EU would be a piece of piss and more money for everyone especially the NHS (huzzah!). The EU would turn and run before the might of the UK. Have a look back at the newspapers at the time, hell look at them from January this year with May vowing to crush the EU etc etc.

It was all feverish bollocks then and it is now. Reality is a fucking bitch.

 

[Metal Biker]

Yeah, Rule Britannia....I think you'll find for most folk it was about immigration and now even that's been downplayed to control rather than limit.

It's bizarre, leavers are being mugged and they don't seem to notice it.

You've spoken to everyone who voted leave have you? You do get around.

I believe most remainers voted the way they did because they didn't want to be seen as racist by their peers given the narrative coming from the remain campaigners that wanting to end unfettered migration from EU member states meant you were a little englander, uneducated racist.

I mean, what the flip was this all about if not aimed at emotionally blackmailing the populous? See the contrasting differences between the two individuals presented? See how you are not meant to identify with the angry looking, shaven headed, heavily tattooed man on the RIGHT?
Notice the woman on the LEFT embracing her culture, calmly, respectfully, defiant in the face of such aggression? How would this image not influence the mindset of the easily lead, making the subject about leaving the EU, a political organisation, one about social strains and issues and not wanting to be seen as politically incorrect? "Vote remain, or we'll think you're a racist." How many remainers were suckered in by this message?