Article on Attrition Rate of Young Footballers

Discussion in 'EDS and Academy Forum' started by Bluster, 7 Oct 2017.

  1. Bluster


    12 May 2013

    I know may will disagree with me, but I think this is an interesting and thoughtful article from David Conn.

    I have always thought we should have a thread on the odds of players 'making it' as this forum is jam packed full of optimism bias. Even those who are not deemed good enough by posters for city are often predicted to have a decent career in lower leagues. This suggests that is not the case for the overwhelming majority.

    The article also describes the impact on the mental health of young men when the inevitable spitting out of the system occurs.
  2. pee dubya

    pee dubya

    21 Sep 2005
    I don't know about this, surely the main responsibility lies with the parents?

    Obviously clubs and academies have some responsibility as well and could probably do more for the rejected kids, but ultimately it's up to parents to make these decisions for their children. To research which academies they'll be going to, prepare their kids for the possibility of rejections, have alternatives etc.

    And you can't remove the potential of failure, everyone will experience failure and rejection at some point and it will have mental health consequences for some, it's part of life.
  3. twosips


    29 Apr 2008
    EDIT - im aware that this isn't really about City in general and about a very serious wider point about clubs and academies - my post below is just an aside to the point.

    Interesting this and the assertion that most will drop out, that we have positive bias (which i think is a fair presumption)

    I decided to look into it and grab a whole load of players that were around City's academy teams (18s and EDS) in 2013/14/15 and see how this has faired and what they’re up to. My initial guess was that on the contrary most would be still in footballer and a fair few doing quite well. I think that’s a fair conclusion too looking at the evidence. I may have missed loads btw so sorry if so.

    In general while i do agree that most kids drop out of football, I think it’s fair to say thats nowhere near as common if you’re coming through City’s academy. We simply have the cream of the crop in most cases so most of our lads will usually have a decent lower league career and i think these lists prove it. Maybe not if you're at Bury though and drop out of an academy, or even a Coventry.

    Not many have fully disappeared and i think it’s fair to say that most of the current u18s/EDS will have a decent shot of it all too. I struggle to see why the likes of Sancho, Francis, Muric, Smith, Gonzalez, Brahim etc won’t all be playing football professionally for a long time. Even the lesser talents will do okay like Bolton, Wilson etc. I think a lot of the lads out on loan will have solid careers in football too and some will do v well as well.

    Anyway - here are the lists. Grouped them into categories so its a little clearer to judge their respective developments.

    Left City - playing at a respectable level

    Jack Byrne - Oldham
    Ntcham - Celtic
    myles beerman - rangers
    david brooks - Sheffield united
    Kelechi - Leicester
    James Horsfield - NAC Breda
    George Glendon - Fleetwood
    George Evans - Reading
    Devante Cole - Fleetwood
    Ian Lawlor - Doncaster
    Jorge Intima - St. Etienne but playing on loan in 1st tier in Portugal
    Keston Davies - Yeovil, on loan from Swansea
    Jordi Hiwula - Fleetwood
    Albert Rusnak - Real Salt Lake in MLS
    Jose Pozo - Almeria in Spanish 2nd tier
    Denis Suarez - Barcelona
    Marcos Lopes - Monaco
    Rekik - Marseille

    Left City - player at a low level (could work way up, could go down, who knows?)
    tom holland - TNS in wales
    deri corfe - playing in america at a 4th tier level, won MVP in his league last year though tbf to him
    james hardy - arc fylde - fifth tier, though he is their best player apparently
    Billy O’Brien - Macclesfield
    Adam Drury - Grimbsy Borough - 8th tier, their best player though apparently once again

    Left City - in someone’s academy side
    Ellis Plummer - Motherwell, though only one app.
    boadu - dortmund’s b-team - no idea how that’ll turn out
    martin samuelson - west ham’s u23s (though did well on loan last year)
    Albinson - Blackburn - signed a pro contract
    Zack Faour - IK Sirius in Sweden, seems destined for nowt
    emanuel vasi - timisoara in romania, another drifting to nowt
    Joe Nuttall - made his blackburn debut this season.

    On loan from City - i’d wager 90% at least of these will play pro football until their 30s though. Some at the top one day.
    Haug - girona’s second team loan
    Kean Bryan - Oldham loan, playing
    angelino - NAC, playing
    maffeo - girona, playing
    kongolo - doncaster, playing
    ernest agyiri - valarenga in norway, playing
    bersant celina - loan at ipswich, playing
    Angus Gunn - Norwich, playing
    brandon barker - hibernian loan, playing
    aaron nemane - rangers loan, couple of sub appearances
    paolo fernandes - NAC, playing
    Isaac Buckley - Twente loan, not featured
    manu garcia - NAC, playing
    Ambrose - NAC, playing
    Smith-Brown - dundee

    Still in the EDS playing
    Adarabioyo (kinda, though 1st team squad)
    Charlie Oliver
    sadou diallo
    javairo dilrosun

    At City but strangely silent -
    Will Patching - injuries?
    Marcus Wood - no involvement last year and none this year yet. Seem him at the etihad though. Injuries?
    Shay Facey - poor loan last year, in limbo.
    Sinan Bytiqi - only not playing due to serious heart problems sadly

    The ones who have vanished:
    oseni - loads of injuries, disappeared after leaving city
    wassi - disappeared years ago
    sam tattum - was at stalybridge celtic last season, probs about to vanish
    josh murray - was at bury ages ago, no idea now
    callum bullock - disappeared, was on loan at Blackpool’s u23s last year
    Sadiq El-Fitori - Al Ahly via United, weirdly.
    Vasi - was at timisaori in romania, no idea now.
    Last edited: 7 Oct 2017
  4. I'm With Stupid

    I'm With Stupid

    6 May 2013
    That's why it's important to give them an education as well, which our club are attempting to do. This is probably where American sports do well, with it being expected that you get a university education in many cases.
  5. BigOscar


    13 Jun 2013
    I'd completely forgotten David Brooks was in our academy, he was great for Sheffield United in the derby the other week and got his first cap for Wales the other day. Lads done well for himself as I don't really remember him being that highly rated here yet is doing as well as anyone.

    Although I agree it's tough for kids who don't make it, how is that any different to everyone else? Plenty of people fail to get into their dream profession and have to rebuild their lives and find a new career. Maybe I'm harsh, but I don't really get how having to live like the rest of us should be something we should feel sorry for them over.
  6. I'm With Stupid

    I'm With Stupid

    6 May 2013
    I don't think most of us are coached to do a particular thing from a young age at the expense of everything else, though. It's like those kids on the X Factor who have spent their own life singing and been told how they're going to be a star by their parents only to have their dreams shit on when it turns out that they're actually pretty average.
  7. BigOscar


    13 Jun 2013
    Tell that to all the people who did Sociology, or Drama or any of those other BS subjects at university! Loads of people commit to career paths that don't pan out, these kids at least find out when they are still young enough to do pretty much anything else. They only have problems if they completely fucked off school thinking they'd definitely make it and even then it's not impossible to change, they still have their whole lives ahead of them
  8. bugsyblue


    7 May 2009
    Well done on all the research into this. Fascinating read.

    a lot of the kids that come through our academy will receive a better education (non football) than they would back in their local communities. I don't think you can expect city to do much more but certainly not every club, especially the lower league ones, can afford to offer as much as we do.
  9. Bob Hope

    Bob Hope

    26 Jan 2012

    We haven't done to bad. But fuck me thats a lot of players.
  10. I'm With Stupid

    I'm With Stupid

    6 May 2013
    I think someone choosing to study drama at the age of 18 has a more realistic idea of their future career prospects than someone who is in a football academy between the ages of 12 and 16, possibly as one of the best in their age group because they developed early. I knew a lot of drama students at university, and I don't know any who genuinely expected to become a famous actor. I wonder if you could say the same about 16 year old footballers at a top academy.

Share This Page