By-Elections

Gabriel

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The polls are open in Wakefield and in Tiverton and Honiton and the results should be heard in the early hours of tomorrow.

Both by-elections result from individual wrongs, but I doubt those will figure highly in voters’ minds.

In Wakefield, the Conservatives are defending a 3,358 majority after a 6.1 swing in 2019. The polls suggest Labour will win the seat.

In Tiverton and Honiton, the Conservatives are defending a whopping 24,239 majority after the election in 2019. The polls suggest it is tight between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

The Conservatives are already resigned to losing the former, but losing the latter would be a greater concern and risk deepening the division between ‘Red Wall’ and ‘Shire’ MPs.

Will it be a case getting all of the bad news over on the one day, or will the Conservatives hold on in Devon and give themselves a glimmer of hope?
 

feedmpenzaandhewillscore

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The polls are open in Wakefield and in Tiverton and Honiton and the results should be heard in the early hours of tomorrow.

Both by-elections result from individual wrongs, but I doubt those will figure highly in voters’ minds.

In Wakefield, the Conservatives are defending a 3,358 majority after a 6.1 swing in 2019. The polls suggest Labour will win the seat.

In Tiverton and Honiton, the Conservatives are defending a whopping 24,239 majority after the election in 2019. The polls suggest it is tight between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

The Conservatives are already resigned to losing the former, but losing the latter would be a greater concern and risk deepening the division between ‘Red Wall’ and ‘Shire’ MPs.

Will it be a case getting all of the bad news over on the one day, or will the Conservatives hold on in Devon and give themselves a glimmer of hope?

Time for people living in both of those areas to stop moaning about this shit stain of a government and use their vote to remove them seat by seat. This country needs new government, the Parliamentary Conservative party wouldn’t remove the pm to put more responsible people in charge now the search needs to be casted out further.
 

Gabriel

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Time for people living in both of those areas to stop moaning about this shit stain of a government and use their vote to remove them seat by seat. This country needs new government, the Parliamentary Conservative party wouldn’t remove the pm to put more responsible people in charge now the search needs to be casted out further.
I would imagine that they chose to hold both by-elections on the same day so as to get it all over with, but I’m just not sure what will happen in Devon.

What I am sure about is that should the Conservatives lose both, then ministers will be out tomorrow morning pouring cold water on the results and claiming it is nothing more than typical ‘mid-term’ disgruntlement. However, sometimes a particular result serves as a bellwether, which is why the result in Devon could be of greater interest.
 

bluethrunthru

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could be they chose today for the votes because its the 5th anniversary of the Brexit Referendum poll - they may have been desperately hoping echoes of a previous win would stir their voter base however thats likely to blow up in their faces
 

Gaudion M

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I would imagine that they chose to hold both by-elections on the same day so as to get it all over with, but I’m just not sure what will happen in Devon.

What I am sure about is that should the Conservatives lose both, then ministers will be out tomorrow morning pouring cold water on the results and claiming it is nothing more than typical ‘mid-term’ disgruntlement. However, sometimes a particular result serves as a bellwether, which is why the result in Devon could be of greater interest.
The standard lines will no doubt come out if tories lose both.

But there is no getting away from the importance of the Devon result. If they fail to hold that then it proves that the squeeze is clearly on from both ends. We know they are set to lose chunks of the north whatever. But if they cant hold leafy southern counties full of rich farmers then it puts some of the safest seats in the country at risk.
 

Gabriel

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could be they chose today for the votes because its the 5th anniversary of the Brexit Referendum poll - they may have been desperately hoping echoes of a previous win would stir their voter base however thats likely to blow up in their faces
That seems such a long time ago; wonder whatever happened…
 

Gabriel

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The standard lines will no doubt come out if tories lose both.

But there is no getting away from the importance of the Devon result. If they fail to hold that then it proves that the squeeze is clearly on from both ends. We know they are set to lose chunks of the north whatever. But if they cant hold leafy southern counties full of rich farmers then it puts some of the safest seats in the country at risk.
All the more so given that economically affairs are only going to deteriorate. The intention, I suspect, was to call an early General Election in 2023, but the winter is going to be a nightmare for the country, so they’ll have to wait until 2024. However, that leaves even less time for the country to have recovered let alone grown, so even with a tax cut it will be a hard sell.
I agree, Devon is key.
 

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