By-Elections

I still think the best the opposition parties can hope for, in 2025, is a four party coalition (Green/Labour/Liberal Democrats/SNP) that runs on a ‘light’ manifesto and is more intent on toppling the Conservatives. That would lead to some major wheeling and dealing in the weeks afterward, but that is par for the course in most European systems.

Yes, I agree. None of them will agree to a coalition beforehand as it requires Labour to admit that they can't win by themselves.

Not sure how much say the Greens will have though.
 
That might suit Labour as the obvious shift the next non tory governmemt woukld do is go for a soft brext deal. Effectively rejoin the SM and CU although via some other name. It would give a big boost to the economy but still be unpopular in many red wall towns. Doing it as part of a coalition would help.

The significant downside is that the SNP would demand a referendum and that is a brexit mark 2 situation. To be avoided at all cost by anyone.
I reckon it would depend on the arithmetic. The SNP might not want to join such a coalition anyway as it could lead to closer European integration and that might satisfy some Scottish voters who would otherwise vote Yes to independence; I would imagine that is why the SNP will push for another referendum in this Parliament.

For a coalition to work, it needs Labour to grow and retake seats in England, but not to the point that it thinks it can govern alone, so in some respects slow and steady might be better for the country.
 
That might suit Labour as the obvious shift the next non tory governmemt woukld do is go for a soft brext deal. Effectively rejoin the SM and CU although via some other name. It would give a big boost to the economy but still be unpopular in many red wall towns. Doing it as part of a coalition would help.

The significant downside is that the SNP would demand a referendum and that is a brexit mark 2 situation. To be avoided at all cost by anyone.

They will, but I'm not sure it is quite so clear what happens.

If it's refused, they probably cause a minority govt, and a likely quick further election which may see a swing back to Conservative. It's a tough call, one for the numbercrunchers who read poll data.

If they don't insist, it damages them badly.
 
Yes, I agree. None of them will agree to a coalition beforehand as it requires Labour to admit that they can't win by themselves.

Not sure how much say the Greens will have though.
The Greens might only have one seat or maybe two seats, but for a loose coalition to be successful, it requires sophisticated parties who know where to concentrate their energies. If the voting system were subsequently changed, the Liberal Democrats and Greens would be beneficiaries, so better to have them all in the tent beforehand.
 
Starmer lording it up, Labour didn’t win you dick, people voted against the tories, had you put a penguin up against them in a two horse race the Penguin would’ve won.
The best thing starmer can do is keep out of the limelight this morning . It's not his win and people don't need reminding he's the alternative.
 
I assume that if they took this route, they'd need input from other major parties on which option. I'd expect the SNP would be asked as they are likely to hold a significant amount of seats. An election result which meant that Conservative+SNP would be in a minority would be truly staggering.

It would presumably need to be in a manifesto though, and it'll get attacked like crazy with Italy being cited every other sentence, ignoring say, Germany which has largely done quite well.
All of the 10 most stable states in the world (according to the fragile state index) and the vast majority of other strong performers use some form of PR. So it really shouldn't be an issue but as you say it'll be attacked like crazy because it's an existential threat to the Tories and whilst they are shit at everything else they (or their backers) know how to campaign and have a loaded media dice at their disposal. The more fundamental issue is I don't see Labour changing its tune on this at the moment.
 
Many times! But the point I make is that there wouldn't have been anything like the triumphalism in Wakefield as there was in Honiton for Lib Dems.
Nope, you've lost me.

There was a 30% swing to the LDs in Honiton hence the jubilation. The win in Wakefield, although by a huge 12% swing, was not on the same scale as Honiton and was largely expected.
 

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