Chances conceded - quick analysis

[CharliesRightPeg]

Here is a table that compares actual goals for and against with xG/xGA (expected goals for and against based on the rough quality of chances for and against).

To help read the table and looking at City first, we have actually scored 60 goals and let in 35 with a goal difference of 25. Based on xG/xGA we should have scored 65.9 and let in 26.2 with a goal difference of 39.7. Overall our actual goal difference is -14.7, call it -15, WORSE than on our expected goal difference based on quality of chances for and against. This is the worst in the league.

This tells us something we all know already and Pep bangs on about all the time and that is we have had problems in both boxes.

However, where it is interesting is when you compare it against the other teams. Our xG total is 65.9 which is by far and away the best in the league and is indicative we are the best attacking side. Our xGA total is 26.2 which is only a tad worse than the 2 best defensive sides United and Chelsea.

Love that table. Where is it from?

 

[Cityfan]

Only if he actually is the best keeper in the league (that's his mean standard), and he's been incredibly unlucky so far. If his form so far really is his mean standard, then we shouldn't expect anything to change.

My comment was actually tongue in cheek about statistics rather than intended to be a comment about Bravo.
Realistically though from that point of view he is unlikely to be as bad as his statistics show so far and he may well revert to the mean as a 'keeper and improve significantly .
He obviously has been a very fine 'keeper and could have a big bounce back.

 

[Pablo ZZZ Peroni]

Love that table. Where is it from?

Yep, it's a good one.

https://twitter.com/ChallengersPod from a tweet on 11th April

 

[Plays By Sense Of Smell]

So as one of the most fundamental concepts in statistics is mean regression we can expect Bravo to be the best keeper in the league going forwards.

And he is - at going forwards. I wonder if we found out that Benjani was the best shot-stopping striker in the league, we would consider bringing him back to replace Aguero?

 

[BlueAnorak]

Bravo in "Can't save a Shot" shocker.

 

[CharliesRightPeg]

Bravo in "Can't save a Shot" shocker.

Shows more than that. If we can sort out the keeper, we're pretty much golden defensively

 

[NorCalBlue]

My comment was actually tongue in cheek about statistics rather than intended to be a comment about Bravo.
Realistically though from that point of view he is unlikely to be as bad as his statistics show so far and he may well revert to the mean as a 'keeper and improve significantly .
He obviously has been a very fine 'keeper and could have a big bounce back.

I saw quite a bit of the Copa America in 2016 and 2015 and Chile won both, so he must have been pretty decent overall, and I remember him making some spectacular saves. Maybe that was his twin :-)

 

[MadchesterCity]

The stats certainly confirm Bravo is dogshit

 

[Rolee]

@Uptop

Any idea what these parameters are mate? Is proximity of defenders taken into account for example?

Looking at that graphic I'm looking for where Willian's goal and Vardy's (second I think) were scored from and expecting to see the yellow dot at its maximum but there's no yellow dot at max in the area both goals came from so I'm already doubting the value of these statistics.

 

[casserole of nonsense]

The cognoscenti at Talksport (the world's leading sports phone-in radio station) told me twice in two minutes yesterday that City "ship goals for fun".

No deep analysis needed OP, we do it for the laughs.