Coronavirus (2021) thread

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A better day for GM today in the numbers.

Down day to day a lot - 692 - very slightly less than expected average from the gigantic NW daily fall of 1729.

Week to week GM is up 322 and the NW rise is 761 - so that is actually about right on the 42% of NW numbers that GM has been having lately,

So perhaps other parts of the NW fell a lot today too which made GMs still quite large drop look less good than it still is.

This NW fall was by far the most today. Even more than the big fall in Scotland.
 
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Healdplace said:
A better day for GM today in the numbers.

Down day to day a lot - 682 - slightly less than expected average from the gigantic NW daily fall of 1729.

Week to week GM is up 332 and the NW rise is 761 - so that is actually about right on the 42% of NW numbers that GM has been having lately,

So perhaps other parts of the NW fell a lot today too which made GMs still quite large drop look less good than it still is.

This NW fall was by far the most today. Even more than the big fall in Scotland.
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I came to the conclusion sometime ago that the daily infection rates mean nothing with delays and goodness knows what else the compilers do.

It's a much better barometer to look at your figures on a week to week basis both on actual infections & Pop score.

You do a superb job on here, I'm forever blowing people of of the water with facts and figures from you. Just wish there was no need for anyone posting in this thread but i guess we've got someway to go yet.
 
There was no repeat of the huge over 100 Pop Score numbers in GM that we saw yesterday,

Every borough is down day to day apart from Bury who stick at 128. The second lowest in GM with the lowest being Tameside on 121.

But most are up week to week - as is Bury,

Only Tameside and Wigan are DOWN week to week. Wigan by just 3. But Tameside has a huge fall to half what it had yesterday.

Stockport had a less good day and was up week to week by 52 - to 175. Though Manchester was up the most wk to wk - by 77 to 435.

Indeed Stockport only made up 7 more Pop Score points on Trafford today not the 36 yesterday, Though Trafford scored less cases in raw numbers than Stockport (161 v 175) for the first time in a week.

Rochdale, Salford and Wigan were all over 200 cases but well down on yesterday. Oldham just under after a big fall, The lowest reduction of these 4 was Salford's fall day to day of 57. The most Wigan down 109!
 
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blue b4 the moon said:
I came to the conclusion sometime ago that the daily infection rates mean nothing with delays and goodness knows what else the compilers do.

It's a much better barometer to look at your figures on a week to week basis both on actual infections & Pop score.

You do a superb job on here, I'm forever blowing people of of the water with facts and figures from you. Just wish there was no need for anyone posting in this thread but i guess we've got someway to go yet.
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Amen to that. The sooner I can get back to finishing the book I started work on pre pandemic the better,

Much rather never have to look up Covid numbers again.
 
PannickAtTheDisco said:
No, but it's an indicator of poor decision making.
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No it was excellent decision making, as it saved 8,000+ lives in the Alpha epidemic. Hancock said 12,000 but he was comparing against no vaccines so he rather over egged the pudding I think as 1/4 the number would have been jabbed anyway.
Delta requires double jabbing but the gap between jabs is gradually being shortened.
 
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Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago



SOUTH


East DOWN 114 to 2386 V 1326

London UP 1085 to 4131 V 2531 - HUGE RISE HERE & ONLY 600 BEHIND THE NW

South East UP 276 to 3360 V 2358

South West DOWN 237 to 2274 V 1664










MIDLANDS



East DOWN 25 to 2419 V 1471

West DOWN 135 to 3216 V 2262


A little down today







NORTH



North East DOWN 343 to 2918 V 2469



Yorkshire DOWN 363 to 3559 V 2736





AND



NORTH WEST DOWN 1729 to 4758 V 3997 - Biggest FALL by far today along with two other big drops in the north, Over 2400 cases down across the region! Much like in Scotland.

The only reason not a big fall in case numbers today was the big rise in London - now within a few hundred of the NW. As Zoe has been predicting for days.




Past weeks NW numbers are 3997 - 3989 - 3945 - 3960 - 4950 - 5203 - 6487 - 4758

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 3693 - 2763 - 4168 - 3870 - 4856 - 4366 - 5033 - 3997




GM numbers in past week 1703 - 1726 - 1678 - 1605 - 2031- 2224 - 2717 - 2025


Total in GM from the NW cases Total - 42.6% - UP from 42% yesterday and same as 42.6% a week ago, But pretty flat now and no longer falling, As this is about par for GM I think and the rest of the NW has caught up with the decrease......is the optimistic way to view today,
 
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Full GM details


Total cases 2025 - DOWN 692 on Yesterday - from NW FALL of1729

A bit under the expected par (42%) of 723.


Wk to wk UP 322 when the NW ROSE by 761 . More or less the expected par of 319.



BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 150 / DOWN 52 / UP 25

BURY 128 / LEVEL / UP 29

MANCHESTER 435 / DOWN 64 / UP 77

OLDHAM 196 / DOWN 103 / UP 34

ROCHDALE 203 / DOWN 63 / UP 64

SALFORD 211 / DOWN 57 / UP 34

STOCKPORT 175 / DOWN 35 / UP 52

TAMESIDE 121 / DOWN 116 / DOWN 15

TRAFFORD 161 / DOWN 93 / UP 25

WIGAN 245 / DOWN 109 / DOWN 3



Everyone bar Bury down on the day and they were level.

Tameside, Oldham and Wigan huge daily falls and also a small week to week fall. The rest up. Manchester, Rochdale and Stockport by the most.

Stockport's numbers much closer relative to Trafford and this time extended by only another 7 their lead over Trafford for best overall Pop Score.
 
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Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Bury 747, Bolton 959 , Tameside 1064 , Stockport 1156 Trafford 1264, Rochdale 1302, Salford 1386, Oldham 1496, Wigan 1803, Manchester 2829



Bury and Bolton now only the only boroughs under four figures. Bury miles clear as the least. NOT the worst in the UK Zoe - you need a new computer if you still claim so,
 
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GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Oldham 631 / 527 / UP 104 Testing positive 11.8%

Rochdale 585 / 479 / UP 106 Testing positive 11.7 %

Wigan 548 / 514 / UP 34 Testing positive 11.1%

Salford 535 / 499 / UP 36 Testing positive 11.5%

Trafford 532 / 446 / UP 86 Testing positive 9.0%

Manchester 512 / 527/ DOWN 15 Testing positive 12.2%

Tameside 470 / / 408 / UP 62 Testing positive 9.8%

Stockport 394 / 328 / UP 66 Testing positive 8.8%

Bury 391 / 408 / DOWN 17 Testing positive 11.2%

Bolton 333 / 296 / UP 37 Testing positive 12.2%



Oldham way up top now. Cannot recall last time GM had anyone over 600 - I think back in the Autumn wave.

With Rochdale second spot with its neighbour after some big case numbers of late.

Wigan, Salford and Trafford all up in the 500s now after some big recent numbers.

Manchester back there too - though still just going down wk to wk. For now.

Pop Scores - remember - take population of the borough into account so Manchester being so big is expected to have far more cases than Rochdale or Oldham which is why their numbers are lower in total but much worse in reality

Bury finally beat off Stockport to go second behind Bolton But only 3 in it so that could change again. Both were well up today and another day away from leaving Bolton as the only borough under 400,

Cannot recall the last time Stockport was over 400. If ever.

But six boroughs over 500 is as far as I can recall a GM first. Numbers are not getting better fast at all,

Bolton still lowest Pop but it had another bad day and is up on 333 is back up to the heights it was last at on 2 June. Not that far below where it peaked, Not what we want to see,

Trafford case numbers were much better today and Stockport only gained another 7 on its overall Pop Score to now be 176 behind Stockport .

Stockport up 60 now on 8851 but Trafford up by 67 - to enter the 9000 club on 9027.

Leaving Stockport as the sole occupant of the 8000 club. Though only for two or three days at current rates.

Bolton up 52 to 12, 168. The lowest Pop Score rise today ahead of Stockport,

Oldham up by 83 - NOT the highest daily Pop rise in GM today - up to 11, 848.

Manchester up 79 - now on 12, 212 .

Rochdale up 91 - outdid its neighbour Oldham as worst of the day today now on 11, 753.

Salford rose by 81 to 11, 497.

Bury up 67 to 11, 172.

Wigan up by 74 to11, 147.


So just Stockport now in the VERY UPPER 8000s - and Trafford joining Tameside a rung above in the 9K club with Tameside up 53 - only just failing to get the lowest Pop Score behind Bolton onto 9877.

Stockport will not be sole occupant of the 8 K club for long but is a couple of days away from reaching the 9K club too.
 
GM VACCINE UPDATE:




Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses - TODAY V YESTERDAY


BOLTON 77.1% / 59.3% V 77.0% / 59.0% Up 0.4

BURY 78.5% / 60.3% V 78.4% / 60.0% Up 0.4

MANCHESTER 61.8% / 41.1% V 61.6% / 40.7% Up 0.6

OLDHAM 73.7% / 56.0% V 73.3% / 55.8% Up 0.6

ROCHDALE 74.7% / 56.7% V 74.6% / 56.3% Up 0.5

SALFORD 68.7 % / 46.9% V 68.6% / 46.7% Up 0.3

STOCKPORT 83.1% / 63.9% V 82.9% / 63.6% Up 0.5

TAMESIDE 78.5% / 61.7% V 78.3 / 61.3% Up 0.6

TRAFFORD 80.6% / 62.3% V 80.5% / 62.1% Up 0.3

WIGAN 82.%1 / 63.5% V 82.0% / 63.2% Up 0.4


Trafford and Salford up least only up 0.3% today.

Tameside, Manchester and Oldham all up 0.6% - Tameside the best now for several consecutive days
 
Healdplace said:
GM VACCINE UPDATE:




Latest Vaccine Update by Population Percentage for 10 GM boroughs

Borough/ First Dose / Both Doses - TODAY V YESTERDAY


BOLTON 77.1% / 59.3% V 77.0% / 59.0% Up 0.4

BURY 78.5% / 60.3% V 78.4% / 60.0% Up 0.4

MANCHESTER 61.8% / 41.1% V 61.6% / 40.7% Up 0.6

OLDHAM 73.7% / 56.0% V 73.3% / 55.8% Up 0.6

ROCHDALE 74.7% / 56.7% V 74.6% / 56.3% Up 0.5

SALFORD 68.7 % / 46.9% V 68.6% / 46.7% Up 0.3

STOCKPORT 83.1% / 63.9% V 82.9% / 63.6% Up 0.5

TAMESIDE 78.5% / 61.7% V 78.3 / 61.3% Up 0.6

TRAFFORD 80.6% / 62.3% V 80.5% / 62.1% Up 0.3

WIGAN 82.%1 / 63.5% V 82.0% / 63.2% Up 0.4


Trafford and Salford up least only up 0.3% today.

Tameside, Manchester and Oldham all up 0.6% - Tameside the best now for several consecutive days
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Tameside have been really pushing the pop up centres the past couple of weeks, which probably accounts for the large increase in uptake.
 
Is the vaccine really working , as deaths was low last summer but seem to be higher than this summer
 
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