Coronavirus (2021) thread

[M18CTID]

GM scoreboard:

347 - down from 400 - 37.6% of the NW total of 923 - down 53. Falls from 45.0 % yesterday.


Wk to wk: 1097 v 992 v 723 v 764 v 692 v 347 today - Steady fall has accelerated in past week.



Manchester 51 - down from 53. Pop score up 9 to 9058. Weekly cases 540. Cases across the pandemic now passed 50,000, Weekly Pop down 17 to 97. First time Manchester under 100 in over 6 months.

Rochdale 46 - up from 34. Pop score up 21 to 8973. Highest rise of the day. Weekly cases 300. Weekly Pop down 5 to 135. Still a fall week to week is why.

Wigan 43 - down from 54. Pop score up 14 to 8344. Weekly cases 404. Weekly Pop down 5 to 123.

Bolton 35 - down from 58. Pop score up 12 to 8488. Weekly cases 382. Weekly Pop down 23 to 133. Huge week to week drop as cases last week were 108.

Salford 35 - down from 43. Pop score up 14 to 8447. Weekly cases 287. Weekly Pop down 9 to 111.

Tameside 33- down from 37. Pop score up 14 to 7536. Weekly cases 263. Weekly Pop down 22 to 115. Another big week to week fall,

Stockport 31 - down from 46. Pop score up 11 to 6706. Weekly cases 326. Weekly Pop down 10 to 111. But still loses more overall pop score points to a rampant Trafford!

Oldham 28 - up from 24. Pop score up 12 to 9154. Weekly cases 263. Weekly Pop down 6 to 111.

Bury 28 - up from 25. Pop score up 13 to 8575. Weekly cases 236. Weekly Pop down 16 to 124. Yet another big weekly Pop fall today in GM. Lots today again.

Trafford 17- down from 26. A new low in 2021. Pop score up 7 to 6621 - lowest rise in many months. Trafford now 85 clear with best Pop across the pandemic and uncatchable with low numbers like it is getting. Weekly cases 192- lowest in GM by far and first sub 200 in months. Weekly Pop down 3 to just 81 - best in GM but now much harder to fall when you are this low. And Bury may yet challenge as it is starting to post low numbers as is Oldham.




Weekly Pop - Borough / Today / Seven days ago / Up/down by Lowest score is best - going down good/up bad

I add the Pop score across the entire pandemic too at the end per 100. This is essentially the percentage of the population in the borough who have tested positive and been recorded. So the minimum immunity acquired that way - if indeed any lasts up to a year by that route. Unrecorded cases, asymptomatic and, of course, vaccinated immunity are all on top of this base number locally.


Rochdale 135 / 170 / down 35 Testing positive 9.0%

Bolton 133 / 210 / down 77 Testing positive 8.5%

Bury 124 / 225 / down 101 Testing positive 8.6%

Wigan 123 / 154 / down 31 Testing positive 8.3%

Tameside 115 / 194 / down 79 Testing positive 7.5%

Stockport 111 / 181 / down 70 Testing positive 6.7%

Oldham 111 / 144 / down 33 Testing positive 9.2%

Salford 111 / 166 / down 55 Testing positive 8.4%

Manchester 97 / 175 / down 78 Testing positive 9.1%

Trafford 81 / 128 / down 47 Testing positive 6.6%


As you see Manchester now in uncharted territory sub 100 weekly Pop. It was briefly near 1000 in the heady days of the student return in September/October.

Absolutely everywhere has fallen a lot in the past couple of weeks and no numbers here are remotely a concern. Long time since we could say that about GM.

Terrific numbers across GM. MIght see a spike in cases after schools go back next week but I think with so many now having their first jab and the flow of good news regarding vaccine efficacy, any rise in cases going forward will be more of a statistic than a serious cause for concern which I know is something you've touched on in this thread.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

Germany has approved AZ for over 65s and, surprise surprise, will have a 12 week gap between the first and second shots.

All they have to do now is convince people that all the negative briefings against both the vaccine and the UK decision to space out shots was complete bollocks.

 

[frothy]

I would imagine that they will get lots of information from your test , such as efficacy as long as they know you have had the vaccine.

My missus tested postitve for Antibodies last June and has had a couple more tests that were still positive, she had the Vaccine in January but got a Email last week asking her to carry on with the study, she goes next week for Blood and DNA samples

 

[BlueAnorak]

Germany has approved AZ for over 65s and, surprise surprise, will have a 12 week gap between the first and second shots.

All they have to do now is convince people that all the negative briefings against both the vaccine and the UK decision to space out shots was complete bollocks.

You can't stop politicians being arseholes. The sad thing is too many voters believe them.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Apparantly our desth rate is so high because we're all fat.

UK's Covid death toll fuelled by its obesity problem, say experts

Britain was found to have the third highest death rate in the world, and the fourth highest obesity rate

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[ayrshire_blue]

After all the graphs and numbers in Israel showing huge decline in % severely ill in people aged 60 plus since February time, that % has rebounded a bit and showing an increase in the past week or so.

I think though, if I've been falling information correctly from @roubaixtuesday and @Healdplace that this might be what's expected to happen, given that there comes a time and a point where a % will remain unvaccinated, for various reasons. The vaccines have done and are doing their job, I still find this notable for posting for trend purposes and to perhaps give us a sense of how things will eventually play out here so as to alleviate any shock or concern when we inevitably see similar.

If I've picked up wrong then I will stand corrected.

 

[shemnel]

Apparantly our desth rate is so high because we're all fat.

UK's Covid death toll fuelled by its obesity problem, say experts

Britain was found to have the third highest death rate in the world, and the fourth highest obesity rate

www.telegraph.co.uk

it's got to be contributory for sure.

The latest ICNARC report (Intensive care auditing) shows;

admitted up to Aug 31st 2020 : 73.8% BMI > 25 & 39% BMI > 30 (n = 10,928, died 39.4%)
admitted from Sep 1st 2020 : 79.6% BMI > 25 & 48.4% BMI > 30 (n = 23,374, died 35.2%)

BMI 25-30 = overweight, BMI 30 to 40 = obese and 40+ is bad shit

BMI around 25 is obviously a little contentious but it's clearly 'weighted' towards obese people, who will have other conditions (no pun intended)

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Son had back to school Covid test this morning

all very efficient .

result when we got back. Within the hour.

he will be going to school Monday! Hooray.

 

[Healdplace]

After all the graphs and numbers in Israel showing huge decline in % severely ill in people aged 60 plus since February time, that % has rebounded a bit and showing an increase in the past week or so.

I think though, if I've been falling information correctly from @roubaixtuesday and @Healdplace that this might be what's expected to happen, given that there comes a time and a point where a % will remain unvaccinated, for various reasons. The vaccines have done and are doing their job, I still find this notable for posting for trend purposes and to perhaps give us a sense of how things will eventually play out here so as to alleviate any shock or concern when we inevitably see similar.

If I've picked up wrong then I will stand corrected.

I will be interested to see the comments of the statisticians and real experts in here on this.

The most noteworthy seems to be the under 60s now doing better than the over 60s which are rising more obviously when I assume they were the first to be vaccinated.

There are many possible reasons for this. One being that 70% or so is the true vaccine impact there with severe hospitalisations around where it seems to have settled.

But that is just guesswork.

Another may be new variant not identified that the vaccine does not tackle so well.

We spot them here quickly as we have the best facilities in the world on that but most countries will be behind the curve recognising one I imagine.

Unfortunately no vaccine is ever going to be 100% successful.

Have the vaccine makers (Pfizer only used there isn't it?) had anything to say on this?

What did the scientist who I presume created that graph say?

 

[hammocity]

I'd say let them decide. I did a home antibody test for an Imperial College study a few weeks back before I had my first shot. It showed I had IgM antibodies which are the ones that are first produced (I wasn't aware of ever having Covid) so if I was asked again I'd do it. I guess it would show if I had the longer term IgG antibodies.

I had the Imperial College REACT test which showed I had antibodies but I'd had Covid anyway. I now have a follow up letter asking me to participate in a follow up at the Village in Cheadle where I will be asked to

"Provide a blood and urine sample, height, weight, waist circumference, grip strength, lung function and blood pressure measured"

It's for the genomics to better help identify new treatments or vaccines, I suppose they are looking at what criteria makes people susceptible to the virus.

I'm definitely taking part, I feel it's so important to help in any little way possible.