Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BLUEMATT23]

So with furlough extended until end of October does this mean another lockdown further down the line or am I being cynical?

 

[Healdplace]

Today's weekly Pop scores for the regions are interesting. Based as they are recall on 6 day old data.

Yorkshire is now in second place in the regions and North West has risen to third - despite its Weekly Pop Score over the past month falling from 301 to 239 to 184 to 159 and 121 last night.

West Midlands in the same month has fallen 328 to 259 to 189 to 161 and now is at 120. Just ahead of North West.

The good news - though - is that every single region other than Yorkshire is falling by over 20% week to week. And even Yorkshire is falling at 17%. So it is relative.

That NW Weekly Pop of 121 is above every GM borough apart from Wigan (123), Bury (124) and Bolton (133) - and as you can see only just above 2 of them.

This shows the significant progress GM has made relative to the NW in the past 10 days or so as then only Trafford was ahead of the NW Pop Score and several boroughs in GM were above it by some distance.

Meanwhile in Wales every pop score is below 100 - but the outbreak is very much focused in the north as 4 of the six top boroughs are in North Wales - with Gwynedd top and Conwy second and Flintshire and Anglesey also up there. Though being all below 100 and only Gwynedd rising this is not much of an issue.

Swansea, by the way, which I used to post data for nightly here for a reader is in 13th with a Pop Score of just 53 - lower than even Trafford in GM - and falling.

Hence why I do not update any more.

 

[Healdplace]

As for the weekly Pops in England.

The top 8 boroughs are all in the East or Midlands With Corby top at 231 and Leicester second at 208.

Even those number for worst in England are telling as half of GM was higher than that a couple of weeks ago.

So it is very relative. Leicester though has been an anomaly through the entire pandemic. The one place that did not peak in April last year and kept on rising so much so it had to go into lockdown on its own in late June - even before GM did. It is nowhere near where it was in numbers but still second worst after all those restrictions.

I said nearly a year ago in here we should be investigating the anomaly of Leicester. And here we are a year on with it still 2 nd worst. We can guess what is the reason but I hope someone this time really is trying to find out.

Bolton at 15th and Bury at 18th are the highest two GM boroughs but their Pop scores hae both fallen quite a but in the 6 days since the data being used.

Rochdale 26. Tameside 32 and Stockport 36 come next but all slipping down - which in this table is good news.

 

[blue corby]

As for the weekly Pops in England.

The top 8 boroughs are all in the East or Midlands With Corby top at 231 and Leicester second at 208.

Even those number for worst in England are telling as half of GM was higher than that a couple of weeks ago.

So it is very relative. Leicester though has been an anomaly through the entire pandemic. The one place that did not peak in April last year and kept on rising so much so it had to go into lockdown on its own in late June - even before GM did. It is nowhere near where it was in numbers but still second worst after all those restrictions.

I said nearly a year ago in here we should be investigating the anomaly of Leicester. And here we are a year on with it still 2 nd worst. We can guess what is the reason but I hope someone this time really is trying to find out.

Bolton at 15th and Bury at 18th are the highest two GM boroughs but their Pop scores hae both fallen quite a but in the 6 days since the data being used.

Rochdale 26. Tameside 32 and Stockport 36 come next but all slipping down - which in this table is good news.

Corby has been in the top 5 in the country for a number of weeks now, although it’s going down it is very slow in doing so. Everyone in the area is aware why but are not doing anything about it. Local mp and Council keep going on about it without taking any actions. Locals are worried that we will be kept under some sort of lockdown for awhile yet.
local paper reporting today that 3 local mps from Corby , Kettering and Wellingborough have now taken the high rates up with Matt Hancock.

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe App today predicting 8108 cases btw. It has been running high of the actual score.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales data:

13 deaths - was 21 last week

267 cases - was 312 last week

Positivity 2.3% - was 2.9% last week

Weekly Pop Score 53 - was 57 yesterday and 75 last week

Another steady fall.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

After all the graphs and numbers in Israel showing huge decline in % severely ill in people aged 60 plus since February time, that % has rebounded a bit and showing an increase in the past week or so.

I think though, if I've been falling information correctly from @roubaixtuesday and @Healdplace that this might be what's expected to happen, given that there comes a time and a point where a % will remain unvaccinated, for various reasons. The vaccines have done and are doing their job, I still find this notable for posting for trend purposes and to perhaps give us a sense of how things will eventually play out here so as to alleviate any shock or concern when we inevitably see similar.

If I've picked up wrong then I will stand corrected.

I would expect a rebound in proportion of older deaths/ severe disease, but that looks like absolute numbers.

Some speculation on potential causes:

1. Just a blip- numbers are small
2. Israeli overall cases are not under control, and this is the residual unvaccinated plus those for whatever reason not protected.
3. Vaccinated people are taking a lot more risks and getting a lot more infections as a result
4. Vaccine effectiveness wears off fast
5. New vaccine resistant variant spreading.

My money on (2) plus a bit of (3) and maybe some (1). Israeli positive test rate doesn't look good, currently 4x ours and rising if anything. I much prefer our current approach of driving right down with lock down as well as vaccinating.

 

[Healdplace]

Wales vaccination data:

951. 540 first doses given - 9523 today - was 8532 yesterday & 10, 764 last Thursday

139, 445 second doses given - 14. 664 - was 13, 065 yesterday & 10, 572 last Thursday

 

[True_Blue69]

So with furlough extended until end of October does this mean another lockdown further down the line or am I being cynical?

More likely to take the pressure off companies as they start to re-open. If it just ends on 21st June when things are supposed to go back to normal I fear a lot would lose their jobs. By Sept those businesses will hopefully be back up and running fully.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data:

27 deaths - was 31 last week (3 of today's are old deaths now identified and reassigned today).

500 cases - was 769 last week

2.5% positivity - was 3.7% last week

726 in hospital - down 24 on yesterday - was 947 last week

69 ICU ventilated - down 1 on yesterday - was 89 last week


More good numbers again with every measure down wk to wk