Coronavirus (2021) thread

[True_Blue69]

Not a good day for the NW or Greater Manchester sadly.

Region up 188 to 877 and the bulk of that rise - 124 - was in Greater Manchester.

GM was even up wk to wk versus last Monday 400 v 449 today.

So big % rise to 51.2 % - highest GM rating in 2021.

Everyone under 100 but only Bolton, Bury and Wigan had fewer cases today than 7 days ago.

Stockport and Rochdale matched their scores last Tuesday.

The other 5 boroughs were up week to week so will have Pop Score rises today.

Bury at 20 was the lowest - Manchester up the most week to week at top score of 90.

Trafford has its highest number (38) in 2 or 3 weeks. Double where it was last week.

Hopefully all this just a blip and schools related.

Like you said above, cases are not really relevant or comparable any more due to the huge number of testing that is taking place and the fact the vulnerable have all now had 1 jab at least.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Except it isn't, as they forecast these numbers to be reached at the end of November/beginning of December, a point at which the effect of the November 'circuit breaker' on death numbers wouldn't yet be seen, as it is 3-4 weeks from infection to death, on average. It was actually around 400 at that point, so they were out by a magnitude of 10.

Please link to the numers you're quoting if you want to debate them. Otherwise we just end up with a half remembered set of assertions (aimed at myself as much as you)

 

[Bluewonder]

This isn't entirely true. There are more than enough unvaccinated people (~2/3 of the population) to sustain R>>1 without restrictions. If that is allowed unmitigated, almost the entire population will catch the virus.

There are more than enough vulnerable people either unvaccinated or unprotected (vaccines are not 100% effective, the more so after one dose) to sustain death rates up at the level of the last wave.

Add on the people already infected of 20% and you are nearing 50%

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/nowcasting-and-forecasting-12th-february-2021/

Either way, the vast majority of those susceptible to hospitalisation have been vaccinated.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

SAGE themselves in March 2020 said suppressing the virus too harshly would cause a surge. That's exactly what happened.

No, really they didn't. Not in the context you're claiming. I would agree that SAGE got a lot wrong in the run up to the first wave though. The sticking with herd immunity (which is what you're referring to from March) until they realised far too late it wasn't tenable, and behind the rest of the world, cost 10s of thousands of lives in wave one.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

Israel is interesting for the "let's just open up" brigade.

I don't know exactly what restrictions they have in place, but their cases are ~4x ours and static for a while.

Their death rate is only just below ours, and not currently falling.

Despite the fact they've administered about three times the number of vaccines we have.

View attachment 12142

Cautious seems appropriate.

it's something that needs to be clarified as to why Israel is at that trajectory because there has to be a good explanation somewhere otherwise the alternative is the vaccines aren't actually working.

 

[Bluewonder]

Please link to the numers you're quoting if you want to debate them. Otherwise we just end up with a half remembered set of assertions (aimed at myself as much as you)

No worries. I use the Government dashboard

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

The daily deaths ranged between 400 and 500 through November, which is some departure from that model.

 

[Healdplace]

Those graphs suggest there is a plateau point in cases and deaths below which - vaccines or not - we will not go. As this is in effect an endemic disease and vaccines will help but will never eradicate.

Although in truth this was alway looking like the outcome - that is still going to be a hard sell to the public who are likely perceiving them as the end game when they are really only ever going to be a way to curb the worst case outcomes as we live with a level of disease and death from Covid we will have to accept as normal.

If that proves to be where we are the debate on how and when we open up will have a different dimension.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Add on the people already infected of 20% and you are nearing 50%

https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/nowcasting-and-forecasting-12th-february-2021/

Yes, I agree. And that leaves plenty of room for rapid exponential growth for a virus with Ro perhaps ~4 for current variant.

Either way, the vast majority of those susceptible to hospitalisation have been vaccinated.

Have had one dose of a two dose vaccine. And easily sufficient remain either unprotected by the vaccine or unvaccinated to allow a major further surge in hospitalisation and death if a third wave is allowed by opening up too soon.

This is exactly what Whitty and Vallance have been saying today. And what every other expert thinks.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

No worries. I use the Government dashboard

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

The daily deaths ranged between 400 and 500 through November, which is some departure from that model.

Link to the model you're claiming was wrong.

 

[Bluewonder]

No, really they didn't. Not in the context you're claiming. I would agree that SAGE got a lot wrong in the run up to the first wave though. The sticking with herd immunity (which is what you're referring to from March) until they realised far too late it wasn't tenable, and behind the rest of the world, cost 10s of thousands of lives in wave one.

https://t.co/3gOfcfILOd?amp=1

Minute 24.

I agree about the strange pursual of herd immunity until it was far too late. It was odd at the time and odder now.