Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Scottish data:

17 deaths - was 11 last week bit of a rise here

682 cases - was 498 last week - another large rise likely school testing related but real nonetheless

3.4% positivity - was 3.1% last week so this is now rising too

276 Greater Glasgow, 116 Lanarkshire and 107 Lothian

512 patients - down 44 on yesterday - was 666 last week

38 ventilated icu -down 8 on yesterday - was 64 last week



So the cases and positivity are rising, deaths a little up today but the hospital details very positive indeed with numbers of both patients and ventilators still falling a lot day to day and week to week

Given the issue of school testing the hospital data is the key as even if thousands of extra cases are found in schools almost none of them will likely impact the hospital data.

 

[unicorn]

Zoe app today predicts 5143 cases - down 350 on yesterday. It has been falling all week.

Whereas in the real world the cases have gone upward. Almost certainly due to the school testing meaning we have had twice already this week in one day done over one and a half million tests - double the most we were at just a week or two ago.

Hospital numbers have continued to go down all week. Though the rate has slowed a bit compared with last week. That is much more significant than cases right now.

In BBC land there are still 9000 or so in hospital. As that is still the Gov UK data shown as it is always tardy. In reality there are as of yesterday 6687 in England and 8090 in the UK.

That is down from over 39,000 on 18/19 January at the peak of this wave.

Those numbers are way more important than the daily cases that the BBC make sure are up to date and announced the moment they emerge so they can tell us they are going upward - whilst ignoring the ones that really tell us where we are right now for at least 24 hours. Often longer. Do they not have anyone advising them on these matters?

I know I harp on about this but the presentation of data at this key time matters and we all pay the BBC to do the job properly via the licence fee. So they need to be reminded of how influential they are on public perception.

Useful as always, @Healdplace .

I tried to put those 6,687 English Covid patients in a wider NHS context but couldn't find out the exact number of in-patients; somewhere over 120,000 at a guess (would have been double that when I started in the NHS in the 80s). Obviously Covid patients are far more resource intensive than the average.

 

[Healdplace]

Scottish vaccination update:

1, 844, 636 first doses given - 18, 836 today - was 16, 642 yesterday & 29, 064 last week

149, 409 second doses given - 7976 today - was 8673 yesterday & 8139 last week


97% of all 65 - 70 year old vaccinated

46% of all 60 - 64 year old vaccinated

38% of all 55 - 59 year old vaccinated

31% of all 50 - 54 year old vaccinated

 

[Blue Maverick]

Going well !

Year 8 at Hartsdown Academy to self-isolate following confirmed covid case

Students in Year 8 at Hartsdown Academy have been sent home to self-isolate after a positive covid case was confirmed amongst the group. Parents have been contacted today (March 12) and asked to ma…

theisleofthanetnews.com

Thing is even when all adults have had vaccine kids will stil be positive in fact people who had the vaccine will test positive if they are carrying it. So when do they stop testing? Once all teachers have had the vaccine, seems to me there’s a two week window in Easter to get every single teacher in and get them sorted then they can stop testing the kids.

 

[salfordbluetrue]

Bollocks.

Not sure which bit is Bollocks, but it takes a special type of idiot to think they can live in a city for over a year and not catch a rampant Virus, especially one that the Government informed can be caught more than once, (a 6 month estimate,) from the start

 

[Healdplace]

The Scottish briefing referred to the rising case numbers this week and seemed more concerned than I expected.

Even suggested that the unwinding of restrictions might have to be deferred if it continues

I would have imagined they must suspect it is a real rise here not just the school testing, As surely it was obvious that they would find more if they started testing kids and their family after mixing daily with others for first time in months? But Professor Jason Leach seemed more cautious on what is happening.

There seems a hint of genuine fear we might sleepwalk into another wave if not careful. Caution being good if we can stop that happening, of course.

I still think the vaccine though has changed the dynamics and cases might rise without the hospital data being impacted to the degree it was interlinked before we had it.

 

[salfordbluetrue]

We've lost 3 elderly relatives, all had underlying conditions but caught Covid, this bollocks about Covid alone !! They would still be alive without Covid, irrespective of the ongoing issues, having time with families, planning for eventualities. But hey ho they were dying anyway so it's alright !

Did anyone say it was alright! but you are guessing that they would be alright without COVID there are a lot of other Viruses out there, having the accurate figures helps identifying the need

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Mothers day will see an increase in the infection rate. Watch the school numbers climb next week. Hopefully we'll be able to stay on top of hospitalisations.

 

[blueparrot]

Not sure which bit is Bollocks, but it takes a special type of idiot to think they can live in a city for over a year and not catch a rampant Virus, especially one that the Government informed can be caught more than once, (a 6 month estimate,) from the start

All of it.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

It just seems to me @Healdplace that there was a plateau in decline a few weeks ago but then things began to decrease again, this time round it seems to have skipped the plateau stage and gone straight for growth. Not too big on the % positive side yet which is perhaps the one silver lining. As you say, I really hope this doesn't transfer into hospitals and ICU but even though they are still on the decline this will be reflective of the cases declining up until recently. I'd have liked to have seen us at a much lower base level before cases (inevitably) would go up when schools returned and restrictions eased.