Coronavirus (2021) thread

[worsleyweb]

Hope you're on the mend a bit finally?

would say I am at about 80 percent of my pre Covid self

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

This is the sort of comment that just reduces the arguments to yah boo sucks level.
1. There is evidence that the scientific advice at the time was that asymptomatic transmission was not possible. Maybe. The enquiry should sort that out.
2. It is clear that testing capacity was not up to testing all these ppl before returning them to care. What do you suggest should have been done?
3 You can argue that there was a v. poor misjudgement. Does not make them "vermin".
Argue your case rather than name calling.

I'll do what i want. They are vermin.

 

[ctwrd]

pretty comical comment. We have watched history repeating its self over and over and those airing the the side of caution are “short sighted”

I’d suggest those shouting to ignore the data after watching the way this has panned out over the last 14 months are the short sighted. Or just wilfully ignorant.

It’ll be 4/5 weeks at most here to get the double doses up enough. As single dose clearly isn’t enough for the Indian variant. Which is another “history repeating its self” event. Should have red listed India way before we did.

Those ignoring the data are those not opening up.

 

[ctwrd]

would say I am at about 80 percent of my pre Covid self

Do you have any idea how you may have caught it?

 

[BerkshireBlue]

So what's the alternative? Turn people away who are struggling to breathe because we can't be fucked with it any more?

yes pretty much. The delta variant has a case fatality of 0.1% (you can look that up in the PHE papers)
There are 67,000,000 people in the UK, say everyone caught it that's 85,000 dead. That is the MAXIMUM figure and a very unlikely one as there's loads of people with antibodies out there. Back when this started the case fatality rate was around 2% equating to 600,000 plus deaths which is why the panic set in.
Now given that 300k+ people a day are getting 2nd doses and there's already 30 million of these people out there we can say these will reduce the 85k dramatically. There will always be that 2 million over 50's anti vaxxers no matter if the lockdown lasts for another decade and it will eventually cost them 2,000 lives going off the PHE stats. The reality is the potential deaths is probably going to be around the 15k mark if it's let rip through the country. That is not that many and doesn't warrant the shutting down of the economy.

 

[worsleyweb]

Do you have any idea how you may have caught it?

yes at work in a meeting. A foolish one.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Agree with most of that tbf.

Problem is, we as the public still lose out it in the end whatever we do. If we turn round and say enough is enough and the government have done this or that and simply start living our lives like it were December 2019, it comes at the cost of fellow citizens. Who's fault that is is by the by, it doesn't sit morally right with me that we'd allow it to happen.

From my perspective, 1500 people died today, and will die tomorrow and the day after and possibly 1% of those people died ‘with COVID‘. Half of them will have been ‘elderly’ and the average age of them will be lower than the average age of the total UK COVID deaths. Death is undoubtedly often a bastard, however it comes, but it’s coming for all of us, one way and another and continually enforcing never tried before non-pharmaceutical interventions on everybody, with no assessment of the cost of those interventions, doesn’t sit right with me, I’m afraid.

 

[WNRH]

except it’s not - one more month makes perfect sense

What happens when that one more month becomes one more month?

 

[BerkshireBlue]

This is the sort of comment that just reduces the arguments to yah boo sucks level.
1. There is evidence that the scientific advice at the time was that asymptomatic transmission was not possible. Maybe. The enquiry should sort that out.
2. It is clear that testing capacity was not up to testing all these ppl before returning them to care. What do you suggest should have been done?
3 You can argue that there was a v. poor misjudgement. Does not make them "vermin".
Argue your case rather than name calling.

1 is wrong and don't let the MP's and Government Scientists convince you otherwise.

There was an absolute ton of evidence that asymptomatic transmission was possible just look at the diamond princess papers from February 2020 which gave an ideal scenario of a contained environment spreading asymptomatically. They just choose to ignore the science published in other countries (even Italy and Spain had papers asymptomatic transmission before it kicked off here). They appeared to go down a mypoic UK centric point of view blaming poor UK data when actually you could just look at Italy as see what was going on.

for 2 they could have put them in covid recovery hotels pretty easily

3 is fair enough. It's been awfully run from the start to this day but they've got the vaccines rollout right so fair dos. I do believe they are trying the best.

 

[Marvin]

yes pretty much. The delta variant has a case fatality of 0.1% (you can look that up in the PHE papers)
There are 67,000,000 people in the UK, say everyone caught it that's 85,000 dead. That is the MAXIMUM figure and a very unlikely one as there's loads of people with antibodies out there. Back when this started the case fatality rate was around 2% equating to 600,000 plus deaths which is why the panic set in.
Now given that 300k+ people a day are getting 2nd doses and there's already 30 million of these people out there we can say these will reduce the 85k dramatically. There will always be that 2 million over 50's anti vaxxers no matter if the lockdown lasts for another decade and it will eventually cost them 2,000 lives going off the PHE stats. The reality is the potential deaths is probably going to be around the 15k mark if it's let rip through the country. That is not that many and doesn't warrant the shutting down of the economy.

The case fatality must be moving all over the place as vaccine effectiveness, virulence and immunity change.
If you look in the genomics data you can find one new escape mutation has been discovered 73 times in the last 28 days. The potential for future strains is there. That imo is why they want to dampen this down.