Coronavirus (2021) thread

Healdplace

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12 May 2013
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12,185
Still saying four on the news. What if cases are still rising in four weeks? Is it the same again?
If that happens we are in bigger trouble than worrying about tinkering. It will be back to full lockdown.

But the signs are this will not be what happens. Cases will level off if we are cautious. It is starting to look like that may be trending in the NW which is where it would start first as it is where it began to climb first. Other regions will be a few weeks behind.

We will also do more and more vaccinations over the next 4 weeks so that too will drive numbers down.

The most likely way to have problems and result in lockdown until next Spring is for understandably cheesed off people saying forget it I will do what I choose.

The data will always dictate what happens. We have to do our best to get back control as 4 weeks ago we were well on track for full opening up. And 4 weeks from now we could be again.

Or we could be in a mess because fed up people decided not to listen.

We are in the hands of sense or no sense and who wins.
 
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Millwallawayveteran1988

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23 Sep 2010
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29,421
If that happens we are in bigger trouble than worrying about tinkering. It will be back to full lockdown.

But the signs are this will not be what happens. Cases will level off if we are cautious. It is starting to look like that may be trending in the NW which is where it would start first as it is where it began to climb first. Other regions will be a few weeks behind.

We will also do more and more vaccinations over the next 4 weeks so that too will drive numbers down.

The most likely way to have problems and result in lockdown until next Spring is for understandably cheesed off people saying forget it I will do what I choose.

The data will always dictate what happens. We have to do our best to get back control as 4 weeks ago we were well on track for full opening up. And 4 weeks from now we could be again.

Or we could be in a mess because fed up people decided not to listen.

We are in the hands of sense or no sense and who wins.

I can’t see it getting bad enough to go to full lockdown again. Didn’t Boris say as much yesterday. I’ve been to two indoor events with over 100 people in the room in the last couple of weeks and to be honest neither was very Covid secure. I can’t see that changing really. I think cases will go up for a little while yet but hospitalisations and deaths will remain in the “acceptable” range.
 

Healdplace

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12,185
Hopefully not but the idea of herd immunity depends to a degree on a stable virus that you can only catch once and / or if you do get it twice it will be mitigated by your built up immunity or vaccination. That remains generally where we are.

But the number of new variants that are arriving with teeth and will arrive until we vaccinate the planet - as in not this year or next - have the potential to derail that a bit. Hopefully not but this is such an infectious virus and it is now pretty much everywhere that the odds must be improved something that gets round the vaccines turns up.

We would be able to respond to that but not instantly.

It is not likely this will happen and the most likely scenario is we are indeed on the home straight on the way out. But this virus has surprised us more than once when we let our guard down. And there are strong signs that society is on the edge of doing that because this has gone on far longer than I think most of us expected.

Herd immunity will still bring numbers well down on the basis of what we have now but this virus is proving quite a pig of a thing to deal wth if we are not on guard all the time and that is going to get harder and harder to do - especially as so many livelihoods were banking on opening up for the Summer and losing much of that to more restrictions will dissappoint many people who may just give up trying to comply.

I do not think we will ever see the worst case scenario. I am pretty optmistic we are getting there and our gamble on the vaccine roll out seems to have paid off. But for letting the Delta variant take hold there would be little doubt we would all be celebrating tomorrow with good news but that was a very serious mistake and as a result we are not quite there yet and it is easy to see the guard relaxing in a perfectly understandable manner out of sheer frustration at having victory snatched away at the last moment.

Overcoming that disppointment and to go again is the hardest thing in football and will be the hardest thing to do here too. Let us hope we can make that one last push over the line.
 

BlueAnorak

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Joined
31 Oct 2010
Messages
18,742
Hopefully not but the idea of herd immunity depends to a degree on a stable virus that you can only catch once and / or if you do get it twice it will be mitigated by your built up immunity or vaccination. That remains generally where we are.

But the number of new variants that are arriving with teeth and will arrive until we vaccinate the planet - as in not this year or next - have the potential to derail that a bit. Hopefully not but this is such an infectious virus and it is now pretty much everywhere that the odds must be improved something that gets round the vaccines turns up.

We would be able to respond to that but not instantly.

It is not likely this will happen and the most likely scenario is we are indeed on the home straight on the way out. But this virus has surprised us more than once when we let our guard down. And there are strong signs that society is on the edge of doing that because this has gone on far longer than I think most of us expected.

Herd immunity will still bring numbers well down on the basis of what we have now but this virus is proving quite a pig of a thing to deal wth if we are not on guard all the time and that is going to get harder and harder to do - especially as so many livelihoods were banking on opening up for the Summer and losing much of that to more restrictions will dissappoint many people who may just give up trying to comply.

I do not think we will ever see the worst case scenario. I am pretty optmistic we are getting there and our gamble on the vaccine roll out seems to have paid off. But for letting the Delta variant take hold there would be little doubt we would all be celebrating tomorrow with good news but that was a very serious mistake and as a result we are not quite there yet and it is easy to see the guard relaxing in a perfectly understandable manner out of sheer frustration at having victory snatched away at the last moment.

Overcoming that disppointment and to go again is the hardest thing in football and will be the hardest thing to do here too. Let us hope we can make that one last push over the line.
There has to be more than three or four changes to the RNA for it to beat the vaccone antibodies.
In fact we are now actually nearly at the point where we WANT to be infected by new variants for a mild illness to make us safe about the variant 8 or 9 changes down the line. I.e. we are nearing the the point where Lockdown is NOT a realistic option.
 
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artfuldodger

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22 Mar 2010
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919

Makes no difference whatsoever to my plans over the next 4 weeks, but gutted for those who’s businesses, weddings, life events etc will suffer. And another summer of no festivals for my kids.
 

Churchlawtonblue

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Joined
3 Dec 2013
Messages
7,993

Makes no difference whatsoever to my plans over the next 4 weeks, but gutted for those who’s businesses, weddings, life events etc will suffer. And another summer of no festivals for my kids.
Another massive own goal by Johnson and co. Lets see if Starmer calls them to account?
 

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