Coronavirus (2021) thread

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If it was a lab leak there could be something to base claims on, other than that doubtful id say, political tensions are high as it is with the US/China trade war going on. and to be honest you could ask the same about the variants. Kent Variant took over the world and we did very little to stop it. will we be pursued for damages?
Well potentially yes, the goverment here could get sued too. Bring it on.
 
Here's some data to explain.

As of 14 June, there have been 73 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of a positive test.

Of the 73 deaths:
  • 34 (47%) were unvaccinated
  • 10 (14%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine
  • 26 (36%) were more than 14 days after their second dose.
Is the data surprising or would you expect this?

I would expect that elderly people would still be the most vulnerable even if vaccinated. A moderate illness could be fatal for someone who is vulnerable.

The true comparison to make is what is the difference between an equivalent group of vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

Best to think about this because this will come up. You wait until people absorb this data and say "The majoirty of people who are dying of COvid-19 have been vaccinated!"
 
Here's some data to explain.

As of 14 June, there have been 73 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of a positive test.

Of the 73 deaths:
  • 34 (47%) were unvaccinated
  • 10 (14%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine
  • 26 (36%) were more than 14 days after their second dose.
Is the data surprising or would you expect this?

I would expect that elderly people would still be the most vulnerable even if vaccinated. A moderate illness could be fatal for someone who is vulnerable.

The true comparison to make is what is the difference between an equivalent group of vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

Best to think about this because this will come up. You wait until people absorb this data and say "The majoirty of people who are dying of COvid-19 have been vaccinated!"

Anyone with cognitive function realises vaccinating the elderly and vulnerable was primarily to take the edge of the numbers.

The key is getting younger generations vaccinated so the spread is reduced sufficiently that there's a large drop-off in cases in the elderly and vulnerable. It's a two pronged safety measure.
 
‘Highest infection rate in Western Europe.’ BBC website.

’2nd lowest positivity rate in Western Europe.’ Not anywhere on the BBC website.
That's because for some reason England - unlike Scotland, Wales and N Ireland make it almost impossible to work out rather then post it daily. So journalists never bother - assuming it is irrelevant or too much like hard work.
 
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and as always I’m sure it will move from North to South and London will have one of the highest rates - that’s what has always happened.
London is already up from around 500 to 1200 cases a day in the past couple of weeks. It is not climbing as fast as the South West or the North East - both of which have escalated very fast in the past 10 days or so,

But this has not been just a NW problem for a week or so now and it may well end up being the NW lower than the rest fairly soon.
 
That stat 26 deaths post vaccination sounds shocking. But when you factor it in as a percentage of cases in the same period it will actually be much lower than the third the raw data implies because far less are ending up in hospital from this wave than the last one and in pre vaccination circumstance that 26 would likely have been 526. Maybe even more.

Once you see that truth then your perception of what the number 26 tells us changes.

Stats can so easily mislead uinintentionally.

The latest data out today again confirms both vaccines protect against even going into hospital to a much better degree than we had feared a few weeks ago with Delta. They mitigate severity in the vast majority of cases. But if you have underlying conditions pretty much anything might tip that over the edge. Even a bad cold could. But that does not mean colds are deadly diseases.

The reality is that most people going into hospital now are young compared with the exact opposite in the last wave.

Only one thing explains that huge disparity. The vaccinations that skew heavily to giving the most protection to those who have already had them and so are age related.

Covid has not suddenly become a disease that mostly impacts teenagers and 20 somethings. It is doing so because they are the only targets it can now easily reach. But sadly it will still always also find those with weakened immune systems too, Vaccines are not magic. They are a great protection but not an invulnerability shield.
 
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Yesterday there were 11,000 new cases, and 7-day average hospitalisations/deaths were 200/11. The last time there were 11,000 daily cases on a rising curve (I don't think the fall from the Jan peak is a fair comparison as there will be a lot of lagging hospitalisations/deaths from the peak) which was 30 Sep last year the 7 day averages for hospitalisations/deaths were about 500/60. Hence, it looks like a significant reduction (about a third of the hospitalisations and a fifth of the deaths) which is almost certainly due to the vaccination programme. Even if a third wave was as big as the last it wouldn't put anything like the same pressure on the NHS as before and hence might be considered tolerable enough to allow the rest of society to get back to normal.
 
I agree Gremlin. As I have noted many times in recent weeks this wave is nothing like the one in January and all the data shows why. The vaccines have changed the demographics. Lots of data proves that. It is spreading in younger, fitter people for whom Covid is a modest illness at worst usually. So much so they have had to redefine the symptoms because too many young people catching it were not sure it was Covid because it felt too minor an illness. Akin to a heavy cold.

If we reach the 60,000 cases we had in January it is now very clear there will be nothing like the 39,000 people in hospital and 4000 people on ventilators and 1000 a day dying at the peak.

Numbers will go up from now in all those measures - and, yes, some will sadly die in greter numbers than right now. For a few weeks as the wave peaks and falls. But this will prove to be the smallest of all the Covid waves in the UK and quite possibly the last one to earn the name wave if things go well across the world in the vaccination for all programme. And we do not get a worse variant than Delta that we stupidly allow to walk in and colonise the UK before we see it coming and it turns out to be vaccine evasive.

Hence the urgency in vaccinating everywhere else not just the UK We are not going to sleep easy until that occurs.
 
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I agree Gremlin. As I have noted many times in recent weeks this wave is nothing like the one in January and all the data shows why. The vaccines have changed the demographics. Lots of data proves that. It is spreading in younger, fitter people for whom Covid is a modest illness at worst usually. So much so they have had to redefine the symptoms because too many young people catching it were not sure it was Covid because it felt too minor an illness. Akin to a heavy cold.
Yup - and hidden in the data is the anecdotal evidence from the NHS that those that do end up in hospital this time round have been less sick and been discharged earlier
 
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