Coronavirus (2021) thread

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India has reported a new "Delta plus" coronavirus variant of concern, officials have said.

Sixteen cases of the variant, a mutation of B.1.617.2, were found in the state of Maharashtra on Tuesday, federal health secretary Rajesh Bhushan told a news conference.


Delta plus is thought to be more transmissible than the original Delta variant, according to state officials who are increasing testing and local vaccination drives.
 
Well we all model risk all the time in our every day world. The idea that scientists delberately get it wrong because they are risk averse is not really credible.

You state your assumptions at the outset, and your methodology and someone else can come along and improve it.
But they did get it wrong.
Worse, they already knew the actual vaccine effectiveness statistics against the Alpha and Delta varriants when they published the last two model sets.
All that can do, is to make it appear that scientists cry wolf, which is bad news for everyone, as it gives credence to conspiracy theory nutters.
 
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Great …


India has reported a new "Delta plus" coronavirus variant of concern, officials have said.

Sixteen cases of the variant, a mutation of B.1.617.2, were found in the state of Maharashtra on Tuesday, federal health secretary Rajesh Bhushan told a news conference.


Delta plus is thought to be more transmissible than the original Delta variant, according to state officials who are increasing testing and local vaccination drives.
Does anyone seriously give a fuck anymore, what exactly do people want to be locked down forever.
They will just keep coming up with excuse after excuse.
And yes we will all have to have a booster jab, maybe even free this year,
But Mark my words the cost after this 1 will be anything from 50-100,been saying this for over 12 months.
And by the way you will have to have it if you want to do anything whatsoever basically, oh and if yer don't work ull get it for free,,,,, happy days......... NOT
 
Saw an old mate today, he's 52, one of his 19 year old twin boys caught Covid three weeks ago, couldn't breathe and ended up being blue lighted to hospital, thankfully ok now. Mate was diagnosed positive but had the 2 doses and only had mild sniffles, his wife and other twin boy tested negative. I expect in the future we will k ow who's susceptible but twins with the same DNA will present a bit of a challenge.
 
It's doing my fucking head in, my Daughter and grand children live in Glasgow, they have followed every rule for the last 18 months like we have, they should be coming down to see us this weekend for the first time since the beginning of July last year , they are then going on to Liverpool to see his parents, then a week in Wales and then off to see friends in Brighton, fuck um, you can have 60,000 people in Wembley but can't go and watch your kids sports day, the world has gone fucking mad, rant over for now
Liverpool, Brighton and Wales? That's not a trip I'd be going on :-)

Dippers, plastic Dippers, and Taffy Dippers, kin nightmare.
 
But they did get it wrong.
Worse, they already new vaccine effectiveness against the Alpha and Delta varriants when they published the last two model sets.
All that can do, is to make it appear that scientists cry wolf, which is bad news for everyone, as it gives credence to conspiracy theory nutters.
But what was the difference between their assumptions and the latest estimates? I haven't checked but I heard a BBC reporter say there wasn't much in it. I can't be bothered to check it out.
 
But what was the difference between their assumptions and the latest estimates? I haven't checked but I heard a BBC reporter say there wasn't much in it. I can't be bothered to check it out.
This time round, on average around 7% lower than the "optimistic" model. Still that's better than the 17% or so they were wrong by against the "optimistic" model against the Alpha variant.
They only undershot on the AZ 1 dose for hospitalisation figure.
 
Australia have strict quarantine for 14 days, don’t they?

This proves that you cannot stop a virus by shutting borders. I accept that you can slow down the number of clusters, but this idea of keeping it out is (and always has been) nonsense.
37 cases versus opening the floodgates to the Delta variant to try to get a trade deal with India.

Science has smashed ideology time and time again throughout this pandemic. Yes the peole on here who advocated a herd immunity strategy and / or who try to undermine the Countries who’ve managed the pandemic well still try to justify their position. Likewise, the last two (post wave) reopening of our economy saw us fall on our arses.

Btw, I’m for the ending restrictions as soon as we can be fairly confident to do so. Hopefully, the last restrictions will end on the 19th July.
 
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