Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Well looks like we are on our way to 4000 admissions a day and back to square one. Pretty depressing stuff.

It is bad, and rather depressing, but definitely not back to square one.

The vaccination programme will reduce R, and infections will reduce it further. It's near impossible for the current exponential growth to continue for more than a short number of weeks, I think.

And there will be far less hospitalisations and deaths than last time.
 
We will never get rid of covid19 , Like Sars and murs it will be here for ever , hopefully it will just mutate until its no longer a big threat.
But we do get rid of SARS and MERS - the reason being people are not asymptomatic when they catch it - The reason why SARS-2 is such a nasty virus.
 
deaths could be at Peak come 19th July.

I would guess cases will probably not peak much before about then, and possibly later - it's unlikely to suddenly turn around from regular week on week 30-40% case rises we've had for some time now.

Deaths lag significantly behind cases, so unless cases have peaked within a week or so, deaths will almost certainly still be rising on the 19th July.

But predictions are hard, especially about the future, and vaccination could make a bigger difference to deaths, and maybe cause a very rapid cases turnaround. Feels like clutching at straws though.
 
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