Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Gremlin]

As I said earlier I’ve nothing against vaccines but think people should be free to choose. Certainly wouldn’t believe everything bent governments all over the show are peddling.

You are free to choose - there is no law that says you have to get vaccinated. Fortunately most people have decided that they will.

 

[SWP's back]

Yeah, loads of healthy IDIOTS who choose not to take an untested vaccine are currently dying all over the country. Like to see who you blame when they lock us down again this winter when the flu returns.

It’s not untested as you’ve been told a million times before you fucking idiot.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

It is bad, and rather depressing, but definitely not back to square one.

The vaccination programme will reduce R, and infections will reduce it further. It's near impossible for the current exponential growth to continue for more than a short number of weeks, I think.

And there will be far less hospitalisations and deaths than last time.

The way we are going we will be in a further lockdown rather than moving towards so called freedom day. :-(

 

[grunge]

But we do get rid of SARS and MERS - the reason being people are not asymptomatic when they catch it - The reason why SARS-2 is such a nasty virus.

MERS is still about, keeps occasionally jumping from Camels to humans and starting over again.

but as you say, easy to track as only transmissible while symptomatic. and far more severe than SARS or Covid so easier to detect/trap.

Edit: missread your post. though you said "did" rather than "do"

 

[twosips]

Well looks like we are on our way to 4000 admissions a day and back to square one. Pretty depressing stuff.

We're quite literally miles off that currently mate. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. We're barely at 200 a day in the UK. There is no guarantee it's going to get 20 times the current number.

Admissions has currently slowed in the NW for example at the moment, way below 100.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

For Delta ~10% are double dosed.

According to the agency’s latest variant technical briefing,3 as of 14 June a total of 806 people had been admitted to hospital with the delta variant of the virus—an increase of 423 since last week. Among these cases, 527 people were unvaccinated and only 84 of the 806 had received both doses.

From the BMJ

Covid-19: Cases of delta variant rise by 79%, but rate of growth slows

Almost all new cases of covid-19 are the delta variant but new data suggests that while case numbers are increasing, the rate of growth is slower than a week ago. Public Health England’s weekly covid-19 variant cases data1 show that numbers of the delta variant in the UK have risen by 33 630...

www.bmj.com

You can't infer efficacy directly from that, as there are too many confounding factors, but current central estimate (with considerable uncertainty) is 94%.

Public library - UKHSA national - Knowledge Hub

khub.net

AstraZeneca, Pfizer vaccines effective against Delta COVID-19 variants-study

COVID-19 vaccines made by AstraZeneca (AZN.L) and the Pfizer-BioNTech (PFE.N), (22UAy.DE) alliance remain broadly effective against Delta and Kappa variants of the COVID-19 causing virus, which were first identified in India, according to a scientific study, underpinning a continued push to...

www.reuters.com

So 10% being double dosed ties in near exactly with the study on how effective the vaccines are?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

We're quite literally miles off that currently mate. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. We're barely at 200 a day in the UK. There is no guarantee it's going to get 20 times the current number.

Admissions has currently slowed in the NW for example at the moment, way below 100.

It was just what roubaixtuesday had worked out based on 4% of case numbers ending up in hospital and case numbers rising steeply, which is what they are doing.​

 

[Manchester33]

Indeed, it's just the odds seem to stack up to incredible figures which make it quite unlikely. You'd first need to be the kind of person who is from a red listed country and decides to take a specific route into the UK to avoid the hotel quarantine (illegal).

You'd then have to test negative to fly and then upon arrival you'd also need to break the 10 days of quarantine (illegal) whilst again playing the odds to test negative in two further tests. This isn't just criminal behaviour, I'd say it's also someone who is extremely lucky!

In any event, surely they could quite easily trace these cases to the ground zero case and then prosecute?

That's not how it's spreading though, I'm sure the vast majority from red list countries are isolating properly. It's the planes/airport where it spreads.

Passenger A flies from red list country, stopping at Amber list country en-route. His second plane from amber list country is filled with passenger B who happens to sit next to passenger A. When they land, all planes (regardless of traffic light system) queue in customs together. Passenger C who's come from a green list country is directly behind passenger A and B. All three end up with Covid. Passenger A isolates in a hotel, passenger B isolates at home (but spreads it to his whole household who are allowed to do as they please and passenger C doesn't have to isolate and goes out spreading the virus. That's before we look at airline staff who are among the likeliest of professions to catch COVID.

Remember, at the absolute best the PCR tests only pick up 90% of cases. There are thousands of people coming into the country daily. It doesn't take a genius to work out the system is flawed. All it takes is one person on a plane to infect a dozen or so, then straight away the contact tracing is nearly impossible as we don't know who has it until day two tests start coming back (after 5/6 days which was my experience after Porto).

 

[Manchester33]

If true, that has to be some sort of "catch up" figure, it's so ridiculously higher than previous days.

England v Scotland has a lot to answer for......

 

[Tonster]

The way we are going we will be in a further lockdown rather than moving towards so called freedom day. :-(

Utter bollocks. By 19th July another 15 million or so doses will be given as well.