Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Gabriel]

Of 2363 cases

101 in people aged 65+
482 in people aged 45-64

798 in 25-44
977 in 0-24

That bottom group split further:

344 in 20-24
292 in 15-19
341 in 0-14

*****************

6 deaths and every single one is from an individual age category

1 aged 15-19
1 aged 25-44
1 aged 45-64
1 aged 65-74
1 aged 75-84
1 aged 85+

*****************

Vaccines

Only 10k first doses
16k second doses

Thanks. In the Netherlands, 56% of the infections in the last week were in the 15-24 age group.

 

[unicorn]

A few posts about how the NW shows we should expect a rapid spike then decline nationwide.

Genuinely no idea why people think this - it doesn't seem apparent in the data.

NW region cases by specimen date from the govt dashboard.

View attachment 20725

Scotland showing some signs. *If* they have reached a peak, for comparison hospital admissions are ~1/6 of the Jan peak. If that followed for the UK as a whole, we'd peak below 1000.

It's very uncertain what will happen, but it seems unlikely the national peak will be below 50,000 cases daily. Hospitalisations peak perhaps 500-1000? But no-one knows, and the further relaxation could make those numbers a *lot* higher.

Hospitalisations peaking at 1,000 a day would be about 4 per major A & E hospital (some folk quote a thousand hospitals but many of those are community/specialist/private and incapable of accepting Covid admissions).

Doesn't sound too bad but could still knock on to urgent care in some hospitals.

 

[Healdplace]

37 all settings deaths

28, 773 cases - highest yet and up from 20, 479 last week but only up from 26, 068 the next day and been around 26/27/28 K every day since.

 

[splinter]

37 all settings deaths

28, 773 cases - highest yet and up from 20, 479 last week but only up from 26, 068 the next day and been around 26/27/28 K every day since.

I wonder how many people hadn’t taken the vaccine..get jabbed
RIP..

 

[Healdplace]

North West appears to have definitely plateaued,

Todays cases up 15 to 3960.

Last 5 days 5033 - 3997 - 3989 - 3945 - 3960 TODAY

But the better news is the GM numbers for those days:

2217 - 1703 - 1726 - 1678 - 1605 TODAY

As you see these are heading down and the proportion of the NW has been falling, Just 40.5% today, From 44% 5 days ago, It was over 50% a week or two back.

 

[Summerbuzz]

Vaccination has stopped the virus being a mega threat for our bodies to deal with. Each variant will be similar to a new Flu variant though it does spread a lot easier.

Do we know that? Hospitalisation is one thing, but debilitating Long Covid cases aren't exclusive to that.

The effect of vaccination on the prognosis of minor and moderate cases is one question I think hasn't been addressed.

And I've not read a thing on how harmful Delta may be in those terms relative to previous variants.

I've also no idea how the risk of repeated exposure to the virus is viewed.

I imagine very strongly we're looking at increased viral loads in the community - and I know this was previously associated with poor outcomes.

What of repeated exposure to the same variant? Does beating Kent then getting heavy exposure to Delta comes with any risk? What if you beat a small viral load, then get a huge one?

Difficult questions, for sure. The limited information from track and trace would seem to leave us with potential gaps in our understanding.

Surely it's far too soon for scientific opinion to be making confident judgements about that side of things, and thus the risks attached to this decision. But obviously, not too soon for a politician to start selling it on the basis that the questions aren't so much unanswered as hitherto unasked, which is the same thing as not part of the debate.

Boris made this deal to save his skin back in February. And no-one is as impatient as a Tory looking at a restriction on the economy. It's pretty much on the Tory party as much as him. It would seem they got Javid in despite Boris, and here we are. Look how much room that leaves Boris!

If it does go tits up, public opinion and the right wing of the party will end up living on different planes. Leaving the moderates to come crawling back to Boris, at which point, he just takes Javid out of the spotlight for a bit, frees up his 5 O'clock diary slots, messes up his hair a bit, and wheels out the "Uncle Boris-On-The-Telly-With-The-Vaccines" character. And presumably prorogue parliament again.

By code, do you mean ‘we want to spread the virus around?‘ :)

I think he gave it away when he said it was time for us to stop washing our hands, and for him to start.

 

[Healdplace]

I have no idea what Zoe is seeing in the Bury data to make it the worst in the UK. That has to be nonsense. Tim Spector should be looking into that obvious data error not chatting about the days news stories with Phil and Holly on This Morning. Though - seriously - it was nice to see him there,

It has had the lowest numbers in GM for days now.

Today on just 69 cases . - lowest in nearly a month,

These two - first in to seeing big cases rise - appear to be the first coming out,

Bolton too on 102 lowest in 10 days.

Mixed fortunes elsewhere - Manchester up a lot on the day but down week to week. Stockport up a little both on the day and week to week, But not much.

Salford down big week to week and down day to day and with fewer cases than Stockport for first time in a few weeks.

Oldham also below Stockport (all be it by just 1) to have its lowest numbers in a while.

Despite just an OK day for Stockport Trafford was again vey high and Stockport had another much lower Pop Score rise and is now 92 ahead of Trafford in the lowest Pop Score numbers when it was 200 behind three weeks ago,

With Wigan (still well into the 200s and up week to week) Trafford is having the most problems right now.

 

[Rammy Blue]

I have no idea what Zoe is seeing in the Bury data to make it the worst in the UK. That has to be nonsense. Tim Spector should be looking into that obvious data error not chatting about the days news stories with Phil and Holly on This Morning. Though - seriously - it was nice to see him there,

It has had the lowest numbers in GM for days now.

Today on just 69 cases . - lowest in nearly a month,

These two - first in to seeing big cases rise - appear to be the first coming out,

Bolton too on 102 lowest in 10 days.

Mixed fortunes elsewhere - Manchester up a lot on the day but down week to week. Stockport up a little both on the day and week to week, But not much.

Salford down big week to week and down day to day and with fewer cases than Stockport for first time in a few weeks.

Oldham also below Stockport (all be it by just 1) to have its lowest numbers in a while.

Despite just an OK day for Stockport Trafford was again vey high and Stockport had another much lower Pop Score rise and is now 92 ahead of Trafford in the lowest Pop Score numbers when it was 200 behind three weeks ago,

With Wigan (still well into the 200s and up week to week) Trafford is having the most problems right now.

Said yesterday, I trust Zoe more than the official figures if my experience of what Rammy is like over last week corresponds to rest of Bury, we are hammered with it.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

 

[SWP's back]

Cases rising in Israel again and the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is apparently down about a third against the Delta variant.

Down just under 1/3 in terms of cases/infections.

Efficacy still at 93% in terms of reductions in serious cases/hospitalisations.

That latter point being the important one.