Coronavirus (2021) thread

[denislawsbackheel]

Spanish flu took three years.
The second year was the worst.

 

[Healdplace]

Boris speaking live now - 'the worst of the pandemic is behind us' he says IF we follow the advice and be cautious.

At least he s trying to be positive.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

So was Comical Ali in Baghad

 

[Healdplace]

Spanish flu took three years.
The second year was the worst.

Yes there were three waves I believe. But it was at its height for not much over 2 years.

But my point was it had a meaningful end point. Though I am not sure it ever really vanished. And it was terrible at the time. I am old enough to have had relatives who lived through it and talked about the family members who died (young people like the ones catching Covid now were hit most back then it seems).

It was much like Covid to those at the time devastating families that had already just been devastated by the slaughter of Word War 1. Or the Great War as they called it then as nobody was ever thinking that humanity would be up for a replay.

But even without the amazing options we have now to tackle it there was a start and end point,

Is there really the same optimism this is not just becoming endemic and never ending as it mutates as necessary to thrive?

I would like to know if our future is to have to manage risk indefinitely or is there a genuine possibility this will end in a way that risk is so low it will never need precautions and occasional lockdowns?

I think most people see that as the goal. But is it a credible one? I am starting to wonder as I never expected such a big wave in Summer AFTER we have almost reached vaccine saturation point.

 

[feelymcfeel]

Spanish flu took three years.
The second year was the worst.

Recent studies of contemporary analysis suggest that the Spanish Flu was no more aggressive than regular flu, but the aftermath of WW1 was what precipitated such a high death toll.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

Recent studies of contemporary analysis suggest that the Spanish Flu was no more aggressive than regular flu, but the aftermath of WW1 was what precipitated such a high death toll.

Really?
So how come it killed millions in countries untouched by WW1?

 

[Healdplace]

Recent studies of contemporary analysis suggest that the Spanish Flu was no more aggressive than regular flu, but the aftermath of WW1 was what precipitated such a high death toll.

It started on ships crammed full with soldiers being repatriated from the trenches. A bit like Easyjet flights to Spain of the day. But it was most dangerous to those under 25 I understand. Hence a lot of repatriated soldiers got sick and spread it when they got back in the US or all parts of the then British Empire.

There was a documentary out there where hundreds on a ship that took a week or so to get from one point to another died mid sail with no way to tackle it in cramped conditions that just let it rip,

Rather like where we are headed in the next few weeks by inviting such catch covid parties to celebrate freedom day.

That same documentary also explained how many lives were saved in Manchester by the chief medic at the time imposing lockdowns that were not then a known thing (though not new - it is in effect what the villagers at Eyam did hundreds of years before) but that clearly stalled the spread. I had no idea the city was the origin of this tactic in a formalised way. But they had little medical options then of course. So anything that helped was like the vaccine of the day.

 

[Del_Bosque]

Yes there were three waves I believe. But it was at its height for not much over 2 years.

But my point was it had a meaningful end point. Though I am not sure it ever really vanished. And it was terrible at the time. I am old enough to have had relatives who lived through it and talked about the family members who died (young people like the ones catching Covid now were hit most back then it seems).

It was much like Covid to those at the time devastating families that had already just been devastated by the slaughter of Word War 1. Or the Great War as they called it then as nobody was ever thinking that humanity would be up for a replay.

But even without the amazing options we have now to tackle it there was a start and end point,

Is there really the same optimism this is not just becoming endemic and never ending as it mutates as necessary to thrive?

I would like to know if our future is to have to manage risk indefinitely or is there a genuine possibility this will end in a way that risk is so low it will never need precautions and occasional lockdowns?

I think most people see that as the goal. But is it a credible one? I am starting to wonder as I never expected such a big wave in Summer AFTER we have almost reached vaccine saturation point.

read a thoroughly depressing thread on twitter that said if the R of Delta is 6 as reported and the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing tranmission is 80% as reported, then 98% of the population will need to be vaccinated or infected to achieve HI.

I think next think that makes it really managable is some very effective anti virals that stop it progressing once caught

but i’ve heard next to nothing on those

 

[feelymcfeel]

Really?
So how come it killed millions in countries untouched by WW1?

See below.

It started on ships crammed full with soldiers being repatriated from the trenches. A bit like Easyjet flights to Spain of the day. But it was most dangerous to those under 25 I understand. Hence a lot of repatriated soldiers got sick and spread it when they got back in the US or all parts of the then British Empire.

 

[andyhinch]

Looks like I spoke too soon. My partner has now tested positive, and I'm guessing it's only a matter of time before me and my daughter do too.

Hope it’s not too severe mate.