Coronavirus (2021) thread

[The Blue]

Do we know how many of these daily deaths are those who have had both jabs?

 

[Healdplace]

Cases are just cases but we'll be top day 1 cases in the world very shortly.

If they've got this wrong it doesn't bear thinking about.

Yes the strategy IS to let it rip and Delta is obliging

The question is have they calculated rightly that it will translate into low enough hospital numbers and deaths to make any number of cases largely irrelevant.

THAT is the gamble we have taken off the back of better now than later.

And the reality that it was here and too late to stop so it had to be gotten over with. Because the Summer weather makes it less spreadable outside than if we waited and it spread wen everyone was indoors.

Though the mask policy on transport is inexplicable imo. That needed to be consistent and is a total mess now.

 

[Healdplace]

The regional rises today are huge. The North West up by 9 is easily the smallest. Even the GM rise of 212 is well below most.

It is all but certain now I think the NW has plateaued - as Scotland seems to have done - and whilst numbers will likely only tail off slowly as there is mixing going to be allowed everywhere with no in nation travel restrictions this wave is now in the hands of everywhere else.

Yorkshire on a new high and North East up too are now 50% higher in cases between them than the NW.

London pushing 6000 today up 1000 in the day and now close to going above the NW not miles behind as it was before NW flattened.

Even the tiny rural South West had more cases today than the NW had a couple of times in the past 10 days!

And if you make the West MIdlands and East MIdlands one region they too are well over the NW total.

West MIdlands alone up 1400 today into the 5000s.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Going to be some very high numbers soon, I tested positive yesterday I'm unjabbed but the only symptom I have is loss of taste and smell, 4 more people who I watched the match with on Sunday in the pub who were all jabbed have also tested positive and there all bed bound and really unwell all young as well I'm guessing there will be alot more cases from that pub.
I tested myself Fri sat and sun last week leading up to the final and it was negative each day so looks like someone has spread it in the pub, Also there was bar service in the pub and no social distancing so I don't think that'd of helped so once all restrictions end they will soon be back.

I was in three pubs in Wales the other week and all three had reverted to bar service.

 

[feelymcfeel]

I was in three pubs in Wales the other week and all three had reverted to bar service.

I imagine rural places/country pubs/small local boozers would do, simply because they can get away with it.

I've not been in a single one in Manchester that has yet.

 

[Healdplace]

Last week by the way the cases jumped up quite a lot Friday to Friday and the NW recorded its highest total ever. It was 275 ABOVE where the NW is today,

So that number tomorrow will tell us a lot about the path the region is headed.

 

[BlueAnorak]

read a thoroughly depressing thread on twitter that said if the R of Delta is 6 as reported and the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing tranmission is 80% as reported, then 98% of the population will need to be vaccinated or infected to achieve HI.

I think next think that makes it really managable is some very effective anti virals that stop it progressing once caught

but i’ve heard next to nothing on those

Nah. Base herd immunity is (1-(1/R0)). RO = 6 is the mid range point R0=5-7.
So that's Herd immunity between 80% and 86% - This shifts a couple of percent either way with other factors.
The issue is how much immunity is there from Vaccination (to original variant) and infection by Original variant, Spanish Variant (September-Novrmber) and Alpha Variant December thru Mar).
It would appear that although 90% of us have antibodies the effect downgrades against Delta by 20% in people who can infect others and 30% if you include those who will get mild symptoms but are not infectious.
A lot of the population to burn through I think. 6.5K more deaths (max) from Delta when it goes on the rampage from now on. I think it will be lower than that though.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Bloke at work returned on Tuesday after 10 days self isolation yesterday was pinged on track and trace and is now self isolating for another 10 days.

350k pinged in the last 7 days at an average of 3 others per ping thats 1,050,000 new isolations last week alone.

 

[BlueAnorak]

View attachment 21371

This graphic is from the Guardian. Looking at the hospital graph we're only a tiny, tiny fraction of hospital occupancy compared to the previous wave.

As I've said before, I could be talking shit but it seems like the jabs are doing wonders to me, given how far along the 'infection wave' we are??

They are. Hospital bed occupancy is lots shorter if you're double jabbed or jabbed once as well.

 

[BlueAnorak]

The decision to appoint a Heakth Secretary who believes ending restrictions reduces pressure on the NHS is looking very dodgy.

Nah. Its going to be as bad as an average flu season. (113 deaths a day) We don't shut down for those