Coronavirus (2021) thread

Healdplace

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Joined
12 May 2013
Messages
13,269
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

10 deaths - was 5 last week

1304 cases - was 1210 last week

5.6% positivity - was 4.9% last week

9594 WEEKLY CASES TOTAL - WAS 9991 yesterday & 9292 last week

114 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - DOWN FROM 117 YESTERDAY & 126 LAST WEEK - STILL GOOD NEWS HERE

426 Patients - down 15 on yesterday - was 452 last week

33 ventilated - down 3 on yesterday - was 33 last week

GOOD NUMBERS AGAIN

WEEKLY CASES BY AGE

0 - 19 has 44.9% of the cases with 23.0% aged 20 - 39 the next most.

Just 2.6% are aged over 80 and in total 11.3% all ages 60 and above.

The rest are aged 40 - 59 - 20.8%
 

True_Blue69

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Joined
2 Jun 2008
Messages
3,883
Thats my 92 year old nanna’s OAP home into full lockdown again after last nights briefing.

no cases, they just think its the right thing to do …. Apparently.

so thats no visits, she cant leave the place to come for dinner, or a trip to the garden centre. Zero. Back to trying to speak to her through a 2” gap in the window. Shes half deaf, total waste of time.

The toll on her mental health during that initial 18 months of total inprisonment was awful to witness. She has what i would describe as ‘50% dementia’. That plummeted during being locked away but her improvement when she was allowed out, spending time with her little great grandkids, was beautiful to see

not sure if i feel angry for them doing this ir thank ful that they are protecting her but as she says, “im 92, i want to enjoy life, not be locked away”.
I think im angry.

Wow what a joke. They should be ashamed of themselves.
 

Churchlawtonblue

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Joined
3 Dec 2013
Messages
8,344
It is pointless debating what will happen in 2 or 3 months as the reality is nobody knows where we will be in November or December as there are so many variables that can change that picture.

We can say numbers are likely to rise as it is Winter. Just as we can say they will fall in the Summer because it is not . But that was turned on its head by the arrival of the new variant in Scotland and the North West in late Spring and no predictions could have seen that other than as a possibility.

The media keep comparing now with this time last year and saying we are clearly worse. But the huge difference in the number of tests is not mentioned or the positivity level - just the raw case numbers.

Or indeed why numbers are high. As in kids who largely brush it off as a bit of a cold. Not as last year many of those tested were in need of serious health care.

They also say hospital numbers are well up now v last September but again that is meaningless as so much had changed in those 12 months. The real measure is the hospital numbers v cases reported that gives you a better picture.

On 14 Sep 2020 we had 2621 cases

Yesterday there were 26, 628 almost exactly TEN times as many.

Disaster looms if you follow the reporters. As those low cases rocketed days after mid September and kept on rising and rising for months. Though we started doing LOTS more tests too.

We did 1.028 MILLION tests yesterday. We did 213,000 a year ago. Not a minor difference.

So - yes - there are MORE cases now but not by anything like ten times as it might look. Because most of the ones that never bothered the NHS were simply not found and reported as we focused on finding the cases that WOULD bother the NHS. Unlike now when we try to find every case that exists.

The positivity level is about double not as it seems from the raw numbers. And in England it is actually even less as cases are lower pro rata there than the other nations.

The likely key reason is that the current variant is very infective, younger often unvaccinated people (as in under 20) are catching it more than any other age in all the data but not usually getting it bad enough to disrupt their lives other than a few days off school. Certainly not to drain the NHS as most Covid stats were doing last year pre vaccines.

There are 8349 in hospital today from those 26, 826 cases and 1061 on ventilators.

This day last year by chance was the one in which the patients number tipped over 1000 to 1066 - and it rose pretty well every single day after that up to the near 40,000 in January and did not fall back under 1000 again until 14 May and was only there for three weeks before it started going back up. So it was NOT seasonal. It was Delta that did that.

So there are 8000 patients from 26,000 cases now versus 1000 patients from 2600 last year.

That is another way to look at the same numbers and actually says we are doing BETTER now than a year ago. But that - of course - is not the story that sells.

Numbers are easy to manipulate to look like what you want them to say.

But the reality is many things are different now than September 2020 and the one that REALLY matters is none of the above. It is the impact of the vaccines on the length of stay in hospital - reduced to a few days on average not weeks - lowering the daily numbers. And lowering the deaths dramatically.

You cannot just use cases as an easy way to predict disaster. Not any more. Time the media starlets woke up to that new normal.
This is the kind of researched well informed post that Sky, ITN and the BBC should be putting out. Not the scare moungering headlines based on the worst case scenarios from already out of date and inaccurate modelling.
 

roubaixtuesday

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Joined
14 Dec 2019
Messages
2,386
Team supported
City
This is the guts of the letter. “The UK Government must reconsider its current strategy and take urgent steps to protect the public, including children. We believe the government is embarking on a dangerous and unethical experiment, and we call on it to pause plans to abandon mitigations on July 19, 2021.”

Not only that but they were openly briefing against reopening and touting their catastrophic models all over the media, garnering the headlines tha5 are not only sensationalist but are guaranteed to appeal to the lowest common denominator (many thousand admission a day as well as thousands of daily deaths).
What they should do, is stay out of the media whilst they’re members of SAGE, where their job is to advise governemt. If they ever feel they’re not being listened to, or ignored, they can resign on principle and then traipse around the media with their tales of doom.

What they were advocating in that letter is what most of Europe have done. Where death rates have been a lot lower than here (though this may not necessarily be a correlation). So it's hardly radical, off the wall stuff.

Why should scientists stay out of the media? The more informed people commenting the better IMO.
 

west didsblue

Well-Known Member
Joined
2 Oct 2011
Messages
23,075
It is pointless debating what will happen in 2 or 3 months as the reality is nobody knows where we will be in November or December as there are so many variables that can change that picture.

We can say numbers are likely to rise as it is Winter. Just as we can say they will fall in the Summer because it is not . But that was turned on its head by the arrival of the new variant in Scotland and the North West in late Spring and no predictions could have seen that other than as a possibility.

The media keep comparing now with this time last year and saying we are clearly worse. But the huge difference in the number of tests is not mentioned or the positivity level - just the raw case numbers.

Or indeed why numbers are high. As in kids who largely brush it off as a bit of a cold. Not as last year many of those tested were in need of serious health care.

They also say hospital numbers are well up now v last September but again that is meaningless as so much had changed in those 12 months. The real measure is the hospital numbers v cases reported that gives you a better picture.

On 14 Sep 2020 we had 2621 cases

Yesterday there were 26, 628 almost exactly TEN times as many.

Disaster looms if you follow the reporters. As those low cases rocketed days after mid September and kept on rising and rising for months. Though we started doing LOTS more tests too.

We did 1.028 MILLION tests yesterday. We did 213,000 a year ago. Not a minor difference.

So - yes - there are MORE cases now but not by anything like ten times as it might look. Because most of the ones that never bothered the NHS were simply not found and reported as we focused on finding the cases that WOULD bother the NHS. Unlike now when we try to find every case that exists.

The positivity level is about double not as it seems from the raw numbers. And in England it is actually even less as cases are lower pro rata there than the other nations.

The likely key reason is that the current variant is very infective, younger often unvaccinated people (as in under 20) are catching it more than any other age in all the data but not usually getting it bad enough to disrupt their lives other than a few days off school. Certainly not to drain the NHS as most Covid stats were doing last year pre vaccines.

There are 8349 in hospital today from those 26, 826 cases and 1061 on ventilators.

This day last year by chance was the one in which the patients number tipped over 1000 to 1066 - and it rose pretty well every single day after that up to the near 40,000 in January and did not fall back under 1000 again until 14 May and was only there for three weeks before it started going back up. So it was NOT seasonal. It was Delta that did that.

So there are 8000 patients from 26,000 cases now versus 1000 patients from 2600 last year.

That is another way to look at the same numbers and actually says we are doing BETTER now than a year ago. But that - of course - is not the story that sells.

Numbers are easy to manipulate to look like what you want them to say.

But the reality is many things are different now than September 2020 and the one that REALLY matters is none of the above. It is the impact of the vaccines on the length of stay in hospital - reduced to a few days on average not weeks - lowering the daily numbers. And lowering the deaths dramatically.

You cannot just use cases as an easy way to predict disaster. Not any more. Time the media starlets woke up to that new normal.
Well said.

Although it's impossible to know for sure, the fact that 80% of adults are now fully vaccinated, and every over 50 will have the opportunity of a booster before winter, it seems unlikely that Covid will be any worse a problem than seasonal flu this winter, and if more than the usual number take up the annual seasonal flu jabs then hopefully we'll have a normal winter, with Brexit related turkey shortages as the main talking point rather than the pandemic.
 

Healdplace

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Joined
12 May 2013
Messages
13,269
201 all settings deaths - it was 191 last Wednesday

30, 597 cases - up 3969 on yesterday.

But down from 38, 975 last Wednesday. A fall of 8378.

England only:- 22, 078 - up 2339 on yesterday.

V last week 29, 286 - so down 7208 on that
 

Healdplace

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Joined
12 May 2013
Messages
13,269
Pillar 1 & 2 testing significantly down today on 880, 294

Yesterday it was 1, 028, 298

Last week it was 1, 143, 886


So testing is down quite a lot day to day and week to week.
 

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