Coronavirus (2021) thread

Healdplace

Well-Known Member
Joined
12 May 2013
Messages
14,579
My aunty in her early 70's caught covid the week she was due to have her booster so obviously didn't have it. She has done childcare for some of her grandkids all through the pandemic and not caught it previously even when they've tested positive and none of them were ill when she was this time.
Yes, I have to say that I really understand that will be something being faced in houses across the land - having been a full time carer to my mum who had a massive stroke in 2003.

She needed round the clock care for the next 14 years that she survived to 90 despite all but it was in many ways a blessing she died before Covid hit. As I have no idea how she would have got through the past 18 months.

So I feel very much for all of those who are facing that situation right now having to balance their own lives and their family and the need to try to keep this disease away from someone who would inevitably be very vulnerable to Covid. Especially with many of the sources of help that were there diverted because of other more pressing needs.

If I harp on a bit about the care home problems it is this experience that makes me feel awful for those trapped by events into something that is well beyond their control. And it is easy for those who really only have their own lives to worry about to feel aggrieved by the restrictions that are stalling them without understanding something they will never have happily faced. Yet.
 
Last edited:

Healdplace

Well-Known Member
Joined
12 May 2013
Messages
14,579
WALES DATA

12 deaths - was 8 last week

2635 cases - was 3400 last week

10.4% positivity - was 11.2% last week

516 patients - was 461 last week

51 ventilated - was 48 last week

A BIT UP AND DOWN - SOME GOOD SOME NOT SO GOOD HERE
 

Healdplace

Well-Known Member
Joined
12 May 2013
Messages
14,579
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

SADLY NOT GOOD NEWS - THE HINTS OF A RISE THAT I HAVE BEEN NOTING IN THESE REPORTS HAVE BEEN FULFILLED TODAY. EVERY DAY IN THE PAST WEEK IS UP ON NUMBERS LAST WEEK AND TODAYS IS THE HIGHEST THURSDAY TOTAL IN A MONTH.

THE LATEST SEVEN DAY TOTAL COMPLETED TODAY IS DOWN BUT THE LONG RUN OF 5 DAY TOTALS IN THE 50s ENDED WITH 61 ON 9 OCT. AND EVERY DAY SINCE THEN IS ALREADY UP A BIT ON LAST WEEK

AS YOU ALSO SEE AND HAS BEEN SHOWN BY CASES AND VENTILATOR AND PATIENT NUMBERS THE NORTH WEST IS ONE OF THE KEY REASONS DEATHS ARE RISING


Total Deaths 91 with 18 North West - was 61 with 10 NW last week & 73 with 8 NW the week before.
 

BlueAnorak

Well-Known Member
Joined
31 Oct 2010
Messages
19,261
It's certainly the case that many govt actions don't make sense.

But rather than some grand but hidden strategy, I suspect they're simply incompetent and indecisive. That would certainly be consistent with their actions through the rest of the pandemic - I rather doubt they've suddenly become capable of instigating a magnificent, secret conspiracy to infect the nation.

It's certainly not the case that their stated strategy is to get people infected quickly. As I linked above, It's the exact opposite.
Maybe, but Whitty always talks about Winter cases being worse for any bronchial viral infection due to higher viral load and bacterial infections occurring on top

Currently Delta is so infectious and so dominant it’s basically snuffing out new variants before they can take hold by removing the pool they can infect and multiply with and get spotted by us.

the next variant that takes hold will likely be one that has highly breakthrough of immunity and can take hold.
Delta us so infectious (Natural R0=5) that it outcompetes other variants and it's antibodies prevent infection with other variants. Only a variant which eludes Delta antibodies has a chance of outcompeting Delta
 
Last edited:

Healdplace

Well-Known Member
Joined
12 May 2013
Messages
14,579
ENGLAND 91 HOSPITAL DEATHS IN DETAIL

By region:

East 4, London 11, Midlands 23, NE & Yorkshire 22, North West 18, South East 7, South West 6

Most were 7 in Leicester & 6 in South Tyneside

NW trusts: 5 in Warrington (its case levels are very high on Zoe), 3 each in Salford & St Helens, 2 in Tameside AND 1 each in Blackpool, Manchester, Morecambe, Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale), Southport.

ByAge:- 20 -39 (1), 40 - 59 (15) 60 - 79 (35) 80 PLUS (40)

The number of over 80s deaths is continuing to rise and looks to be a factor in the uptick.I am suspecting - hopefully incorrectly - care home outbreaks are happening like they have elsewhere as out of hospital Covid deaths in England are rising.

THE LATEST 5 DAY TOTAL FOR 3 OCT to 9 OCT IS:-

55 - 51 - 55 - 50 - 55 - 53 - 61 = TOTAL 380.

THIS IS DOWN FROM 398 THE WEEK BEFORE AND 508 THE WEEK BEFORE THAT AND 526 THE WEEK BEFORE THAT

BUT

THE NUMBERS COMING UP NEXT ARE ALREADY ABOVE OR HEADING TO BE ABOVE THIS PAST WEEK AND UNLESS THIS IS A VERY TEMPORARY RISE IT ALREADY LOOKS CERTAIN NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE TOTAL DEATHS GOING UP AGAIN HERE AFTER A MONTH OF STEADY FALLS

HOPE NOT.
 

True_Blue69

Well-Known Member
Joined
2 Jun 2008
Messages
3,991
ENGLAND 91 HOSPITAL DEATHS IN DETAIL

By region:

East 4, London 11, Midlands 23, NE & Yorkshire 22, North West 18, South East 7, South West 6

Most were 7 in Leicester & 6 in South Tyneside

NW trusts: 5 in Warrington (its case levels are very high on Zoe), 3 each in Salford & St Helens, 2 in Tameside AND 1 each in Blackpool, Manchester, Morecambe, Pennine Acute (Oldham/Rochdale), Southport.

ByAge:- 20 -39 (1), 40 - 59 (15) 60 - 79 (35) 80 PLUS (40)

The number of over 80s deaths is continuing to rise and looks to be a factor in the uptick.I am suspecting - hopefully incorrectly - care home outbreaks are happening like they have elsewhere as out of hospital Covid deaths in England are rising.

THE LATEST 5 DAY TOTAL FOR 3 OCT to 9 OCT IS:-

55 - 51 - 55 - 50 - 55 - 53 - 61 = TOTAL 380.

THIS IS DOWN FROM 398 THE WEEK BEFORE AND 508 THE WEEK BEFORE THAT AND 526 THE WEEK BEFORE THAT

BUT

THE NUMBERS COMING UP NEXT ARE ALREADY ABOVE OR HEADING TO BE ABOVE THIS PAST WEEK AND UNLESS THIS IS A VERY TEMPORARY RISE IT ALREADY LOOKS CERTAIN NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE TOTAL DEATHS GOING UP AGAIN HERE AFTER A MONTH OF STEADY FALLS

HOPE NOT.

Unfortunately I would imagine this is inevitable. More people pass away in the winter months anyway, and with covid still being rife in hospitals I don't see how this can't go up.
 

PannickAtTheDisco

Well-Known Member
Joined
13 Dec 2016
Messages
21,604
Location
not at CAS
Maybe, but Whitty always talks about Winter cases being worse for any bronchial viral infection due to higher viral load and

Delta us so infectious (Natural R0=5) that it outcompetes other variants and it's antibodies prevent infection with other variants. Only a variant which eludes Delta antibodies has a chance of outcompeting Delta
so until a probably catastrophic mutation, this variant is actually doing us a favour?
 

grunge

Well-Known Member
Joined
30 Jun 2009
Messages
5,224
Location
Warrington
Maybe, but Whitty always talks about Winter cases being worse for any bronchial viral infection due to higher viral load and

Delta us so infectious (Natural R0=5) that it outcompetes other variants and it's antibodies prevent infection with other variants. Only a variant which eludes Delta antibodies has a chance of outcompeting Delta

Bit more info on it. This is all the countries that our world in data has break down's for.

Delta is near totally dominant.

1634215779027.png
 

Healdplace

Well-Known Member
Joined
12 May 2013
Messages
14,579
It will be awful if we have to live forever expecting an even more deadly variant to arrive. Though I think these things tend to find a mutation that virus and human can survive with together as ultimately evoution determines survival of species is the goal and finds a way to live and let live

However, what I really think we need is not just local investigations into which government screwed up more than others. Nobody did everything right and why is the bigger question - not who wins the booby prize for worst responder. We had no global plan for a problem we knew would be a global problem. By defiition of the word pandemic.

What we need is a global investigation asking why we let Covid colonise the world when we have known for years something like this was inevitable. We have been collectively very guilty of too little preparation and I would have thought that - rather than play games such as my government is better than yours with Covid - we should be asking NOW how we get ready and agree strategies up front to deal with as a planet the NEXT pandemic

As that might be next year or 20 years from now but it will happen and be as bad if we are as unprepared again.

And the next one could be FAR worse and put humanity itself at risk. That is the real scary part I do not think many people realise. Covid's death rate was fairly low and focused on the vulnerable. There may be a pandemic round the corner attacking the young and fit with a much greater fatality rate.

We should not be sitting around arguing politics waiting for that to happen. We should have been shocked into being FAR more prepared for the sequel. Even if hopefully it is a long time away. And like most - but not all - sequels not as great as the one it follows.
 
Last edited:

roubaixtuesday

Well-Known Member
Joined
14 Dec 2019
Messages
2,670
Team supported
City
so until a probably catastrophic mutation, this variant is actually doing us a favour?

I don't think that adds up. Delta is as likely as any other variant to mutate into something nastier during any individual infection, and there's a lot more of it around precisely because it's so infections.

Delta first emerged late last year, and nothing has come along since, which has led to speculation that we're now at the point where even more tranmissible variants are increasingly less likely - if they were going to emerge they probably would have by now.

Evolutionary pressure is now I guess more on immune escape than transmissibility, as there are increasingly few people both covid and vaccine naive.
 

Don't have an account?

Register now!
Top
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.