Coronavirus (2021) thread

PannickAtTheDisco

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I don't think that adds up. Delta is as likely as any other variant to mutate into something nastier during any individual infection, and there's a lot more of it around precisely because it's so infections.

Delta first emerged late last year, and nothing has come along since, which has led to speculation that we're now at the point where even more tranmissible variants are increasingly less likely - if they were going to emerge they probably would have by now.

Evolutionary pressure is now I guess more on immune escape than transmissibility, as there are increasingly few people both covid and vaccine naive.
well I guess, if a transmissable variant we've learned to live with is stopping other variants from propagating then it's doing us a favour in the short run, until that evolutionary pressure dictates a mutation that thwarts us. For now, it's better to have something we can live alongside pretty normally than have an Epsilon variant that's evasive and sets us back to square 1.
 

Healdplace

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SCOTLAND DATA

Some better news here

29 deaths - was 39 last week

2639 cases - was 2691 last week

7.0% positivity - was 6.8% last week

908 patients - down 10 on yesterday - was 986 last week

50 ventilated icu - down 1 on yesterday - was 69 last week
 

Healdplace

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NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

6 deaths - was 4 last week

1304 cases - was 1305 last week

6.2% positivity - was 5.7% last week

8996 weekly cases - was 8969 yesterday & 8018 last week

67 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - UP 2 ON YESTERDAY & UP 1 ON LAST WEEK

RISING AGAIN AND SO ARE OVER 80 CASE NUMBERS AND SO ARE VENTILATORS AND SO ARE DEATHS - MORE THAN CASES ARE RISING

THIS IS WHY I FEAR THE SAME PROBLEM WILL DOMINATE THE WINTER IF WE KEEP IGNORING IT ACROSS THE UK. NOT SURE WHAT WE CAN DO WITH THESE MOST VULNERABLE PATIENTS AT THE MOST VULNERABLE TIME OF YEAR BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOMEONE IS TRYING TO DO SOMETHING BEFORE THE RISE IN OUTBREAKS HERE AFTER WEEKS OF FALLS LATELY BECOMES TOO MUCH TO STOP

345 Patients - down 2 on yesterday - was 359 last week

27 ventilated - was 26 yesterday & last week
 

Healdplace

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So the total deaths today with out of hospital England to add are:- 138

This time last week at this stage it was 112 - That became 122 later when England added 10 out of hospital to the 61 in hospital.

Given todays hospital deaths in England are UP today by 50% on that 61 (at 91) then the total numbers today will clearly rise well over that 122.
 

Healdplace

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And the three nation cases today with England to add are:- 6578

This time last week the number was 7396. With Wales the biggest fall today (down 735 wk to wk)

England last week added 33, 305 to that 7396 for a UK total of 40, 701

Yesterday England added 36, 458 to a UK total of 42, 776
 

Healdplace

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19 out of hospital deaths in England - total 110

38, 488 England only cases.

This is rising a lot now.

Up 2020 on yesterday & 5183 week to week
 

wolfie1988

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NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

6 deaths - was 4 last week

1304 cases - was 1305 last week

6.2% positivity - was 5.7% last week

8996 weekly cases - was 8969 yesterday & 8018 last week

67 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - UP 2 ON YESTERDAY & UP 1 ON LAST WEEK

RISING AGAIN AND SO ARE OVER 80 CASE NUMBERS AND SO ARE VENTILATORS AND SO ARE DEATHS - MORE THAN CASES ARE RISING

THIS IS WHY I FEAR THE SAME PROBLEM WILL DOMINATE THE WINTER IF WE KEEP IGNORING IT ACROSS THE UK. NOT SURE WHAT WE CAN DO WITH THESE MOST VULNERABLE PATIENTS AT THE MOST VULNERABLE TIME OF YEAR BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOMEONE IS TRYING TO DO SOMETHING BEFORE THE RISE IN OUTBREAKS HERE AFTER WEEKS OF FALLS LATELY BECOMES TOO MUCH TO STOP

345 Patients - down 2 on yesterday - was 359 last week

27 ventilated - was 26 yesterday & last week
Like what though? All we can do is tell them to go and get the booster jab when invited.

A lot of the "most vulnerable" will not have many Christmases left, I doubt any guidance or restriction would be listened to by them anyway.
 
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Healdplace

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Greater Manchester V North West Summary

A very good day for Greater Manchester V much less good day in the North West

North West is UP 222 on day to 5322 AND UP week to week from 4743 by 579.

HOWEVER

North West 1662 cases - DOWN 275 on the day when the NW is UP 222

North West week to week is DOWN 22 from 1684 when the NW is UP by 579.

As you see GM completely against the trend in the rest of the region.

The reason is quite a lot of falls day to day and week to week.

Yet there are FOUR boroughs over 200 - though all not by a lot.

Only Wigan is up on day to 213.

Trafford falls big again - down 60 to 203. Manchester falls 59 to 226. And Stockport 42 to 218.

Week to week Trafford drops 97 - another huge fall that will slice into its big Pop Score, Manchester by 12 and Stockprt by just 1. But all these big hitters are at least down not up. Hence the good GM numbers v North West.

Salford possibly the worst day - on 191 - which is up 79 week to week as it is really climbing now. May be the next borough to be clocking up 200 numbers. Hopefully not

Bolton was up a lot today from 94 to 132 week to week Oldham FELL by 84 on the day and 29 week to week on just 90 and had the lowest Pop Score of the day of 38. Bury had the lowest score of the day - the only other borough under 100 on 82.

Bury was down both day to day and week to week as were Manchester, Oldham, Stockport (just!), Tameside and Trafford. The rest were all up by one or both measure.
 
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