Coronavirus (2021) thread

BlueAnorak

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Maybe, but Whitty always talks about Winter cases being worse for any bronchial viral infection due to higher viral load and bacterial infections occurring on top

Delta us so infectious (Natural R0=5) that it outcompetes other variants and it's antibodies prevent infection with other variants. Only a variant which eludes Delta antibodies has a chance of outcompeting Delta
Incidently if the observed R0 with no restrictions is quite close to 1 then "Herd Immunity" may actually be near at hand.
I personally don't think this is the case as declining vaccination immunity will keep the case numbers going at a fairly consistent level for quite some time.
At current rates though, In a months time, most school kids between 4 and 18 will probably have caught Covid.
 
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BlueHammer85

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Incidently if the observed R0 with no restrictions is quite close to 1 then "Herd Immunity" may actually be near at hand.
I personally don't think this is the case as declining vaccination immunity will keep the case numbers going at a fairly consistent level for quite some time.
In a months time thpugh, every school kid between 4 and 18 will probably have caught Covid.

just got to make it through this winter with no new variants
 

Healdplace

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ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY

Not good news. Rises continue. Still not a lot but the signs are not positive.

ADMISSIONS:

Tuesday was the highest day in some time for admissions and the first over 700 for a few weeks.

760 England admissions V 658 Tuesday last week All the main regions up or flat:- London 74 - 93, Midlands 128 - 149, NE & Yorkshire 166 - 166 and North West the biggest jump 88 to 116.

PATIENTS:

5289 IN HOSPITAL TODAY

For the first time in over a month Patient numbers ROSE insteasd of FELL on a Thursday,

Like all week only by small numbers - 43 - to 5289. But growing a bit each day.

This week so far has been 5206 - 5213 - 5246 - 5289 - so a rise of 83 since Monday.

Last week the numbers for those days were 4909 - 5006 - 5009 - 4962.

Regionally today Up/DOWN and V last Thursday

London UP 15 to 864 V 834

Midlands DOWN 11 to 1075 V 1027

NE & Yorkshire UP 12 to 1153 V 1140

AND

NORTH WEST UP 3 to 830 V 779

SO THE NORTH WEST HAS THE LARGEST RISE OF THE FOUR LARGE REGIOBS DESPITE THE LOWEST OVERALL NUMBERS WEEK TO WEEK

Other regions are even worse:-

East is UP week to week 346 to 446, South East 427 to 477 and South West 359 to 444

All of England is climbing together for the first time since the January wave.

So today up week to week 327 from up 297 on Monday. So FLAT but ticking up,


VENTILATORS:-


FLAT AFTER BIG MONDAY RISE BUT DOWN TO 655 TODAY

This week so far 621 - 657 - 657 - 655

Last week the numbers for those days were 632 - 661 - 663 - 665

So a very similar trajectory staying a handful down week to week


Regionally today Up/DOWN and V last Thursday


London DOWN 6 to 137 V 161

Midlands UP 2 to 133 V 132

NE & Yorkshire UP 5 to 128 V 131

AND

NORTH WEST DOWN 5 to 93 V 95

So only London and North West down week to week


Other regions:-

East is UP week to week 54 to 61, South East 44 to 51 and South West 48 to 52
 

Healdplace

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UK HOSPITAL NUMBERS:


HEADLINE:- UK PATIENTS BACK OVER 7000 BUT VENTILATORS FALL A LITTLE.

THE NUMBERS ARE PRETTY FLAT



PATIENTS


ENGLAND 5289 up

SCOTLAND 908 down

WALES 515 down

N.IRELAND 345 down



TOTAL 7057 a rise of 30 today



VENTILATORS


ENGLAND 655 down

SCOTLAND 50 down

WALES 47 down

N IRELAND 27 up


TOTAL 779 a fall of 6 today
 

Healdplace

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ENGLAND REGIONS


EAST UP BY 224 - TO 4385 V 3956 - UP 427 IN WEEK - NOW WELL BELOW THE NORTH WEST

LONDON FALLS BY 324 - TO 2947 V 3077 DOWN 130 IN WEEK

SOUTH EAST UP BY 147 TO 5913 V 4715 - UP 1198 IN PAST WEEK AND NOW WELL AHEAD OF THE NW

SOUTH WEST UP BY 1729 TO 5059 V 2784 UP 2275 IN WEEK -


THIS IS AN ABSOLUTELY GIGANTIC RISE WEEK TO WEEK BIGGEST I EVER RECALL HERE. IN AN AREA WHERE HOSPITAL NUMBERS HAVE BEEN SHOOTING UP ALL WEEK TOO. THEY ARE NOW JUST 263 BEHIND THE NORTH WEST WHICH IS REMARKABLE AS IN NORMAL TIMES THEY ARE AT LEAST A QUARTER OF NW CASES AND AKIN TO THE NORTH EAST WHO THEMSELVES ARE VERY HIGH RIGHT NOW -

BUT NOT THIS HIGH!






EAST MIDLANDS UP BY 214 - TO 3898 V 3919 FALLS 21 IN WEEK

WEST MIDLANDS FALLS BY 267 - TO 3605 V 3563 UP 42 IN WEEK





NORTH EAST UP BY 421 - TO 2166 V 1718 - UP 448 IN WEEK - NE NOW SHOOTING UP TOO AT HIGHEST IN SOME WEEKS

YORKSHIRE UP BY 398 TO 4500 V 3729 - UP 771 IN WEEK


AND


NORTH WEST UP BY 222 TO 5322 V 4743 - UP 579 IN WEEK



GM AS A PERCENTAGE OF NORTH WEST CASES

TODAY 31.2% WAY DOWN ON YESTERDAY WHEN IT WAS 38.0% LOWEST IN WEEKS IN NORTH WEST

BUT QUITE A BIT DOWN TOO WEEK TO WEEK FROM WHAT WAS A LOW LAST WEEK OF 35.5%


BEST DAY IN GREATER MANCHESTER V NORTH WEST IN AGES
 

Healdplace

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GREATER MANCHESTER SCOREBOARD


TOTAL CASES 1662 - DOWN 275 FROM YESTERDAY

NORTH WEST UP 222 TO 5322 - NORTH WEST RISES & GM FALLS = VERY GOOD DAY


VERSUS LAST WEEK GM WAS THEN 1684 - SO DOWN 22

NORTH WEST RISES BY 579 WEEK TO WEEK.

THE WEEK TO WEEK GM FALL EVEN A SMALL ONE AS HERE WHEN NW GOES UP BY HUNDREDS SO OBVIOUSLY AN EVEN BETTER DAY HERE TOO FOR GM = BEST DAY FOR GM IN SOME TIME



MANCHESTER 226 - DOWN 59 on day & DOWN 12 wk to wk. Pop Score up 41. Far better day in Manchester. Back on top but lowest top number in GM in two weeks. POP SCORE 16, 549

STOCKPORT 218 - DOWN 42 on day & DOWN 1 wk to wk. Another better day obviously though tiny week to week fall shows it still has plenty of work to do. Pop Score 74 and Trafford - despite again a much bigger week to week drop in cases - still lost another 11 points to Stockport who are now 254 clear as best Pop Score in GM. Trafford is a smaller boroigh than Stockport hence fewer cases here is not a better Pop Score. Looks like SK should be last one standing in 14 K club by weekend. POP SCORE 14, 608

WIGAN 213 - UP 19 on day & UP 13 wk to wk. Not a good day here. Highest place it has been in a while. Being above Trafford though shows more how well Trafford has turned it round. Pop score up 65. Most in a while. But enough to see it join the 16 K club as the fourth GM member. POP SCORE 16, 008

TRAFFORD 203 - DOWN 60 on day & DOWN 97 Wk to wk - More big progress from yesterday with another huge week to week fall cutting their Weekly Pop Score. But the pop score today still rises by 85 - easily the highest in GM today. So Stockport still gained more v Trafford who will be in the 15 K club within 2 or 3 days. POP SCORE 14, 862


SALFORD 191 - DOWN 1 on day & UP 79 wk to wk. Climbing pretty much like Manchester now after its low period.Pop Score up 72. POP SCORE 16, 609

ROCHDALE 158 - UP 2 on day & UP 24 wk to wk. Pop Score up 75. This Pop Score is one WORSE than Stockport which shows you how BIG these numbers are in a smaller borough here . POP SCORE 16, 228


TAMESIDE 149 - DOWN 51 on day & DOWN 23 wk to wk. Very good day here. Pop Score of 66 here. POP SCORE 15, 756


BOLTON 132 - UP 22 on day & UP 38 wk to wk - Not good day here after several better ones. Pop Score up 46. POP SCORE 15, 845


OLDHAM 90 - DOWN 84 on day & DOWN 29 Wk to Wk. Surprise big drop here. Though Zoe got it spot on to be fair. Pop Score up 38. Easily best in GM just as Zoe has it. Lead over Manchester for highest Pop Score across the pandemic FALLS for firat time in ages by 3 to 382 - crazy to think it is best in GM right now but will be first in GM into the highest band as one of the highest scores in the whole UK this weekend. POP SCORE 16, 931


BURY 82 - DOWN 21 on day & DOWN 14 wk to wk. Pop score here up 43 POP SCORE 15, 655
 

Healdplace

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GM boroughs weekly past 7 day case totals:

Bury 664, Bolton 782, Oldham 811, Rochdale 919, Salford 1020, Tameside 1158, Wigan 1334, Manchester 1592, Stockport 1674, Trafford 1700


A lot of changes today down today but Bury pulling clear of Bolton with the best numbers in GM. Rochdale and Salford heading the other way and unsurprisingly Salford crashed the four figure barrier which has been coming as it steadily rose. Again a surprise that was well predicted by Zoe. Just as it saw Oldham go the other way before it happened.

Trafford had another big fall from their big numbers last week and Stockport fell by ONE! So Trafford has a good chance of handing the worst number back to Stockport tomorrow. Only needs to better 26 which seems harder not to do the way it is going.

Manchester's gap behind Stockport rises to 82. But Trafford closed in from the other side to put the squeeze on Stockport in the mddle.

The whole table looks a lot less polarised and contracted top to bottom than it did last week.
 

Healdplace

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GM WEEKLY POP SCORES

Remember low scores good - going down good - high scores bad - going up bad

BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // POP SCORE LAST WEEK // UP OR DOWN BY LAST 7 DAYS

Also WAS 4 weeks ago (up/down in past month)



BOLTON 272 // 256 // UP 16 WAS 252 (UP 20)

MANCHESTER 287 // 253 //UP 34 WAS 236 (UP 51)

OLDHAM 342 // 341 // UP 1 WAS 289 (UP 53)

BURY 348 // 332 // UP 16 WAS 256 (UP 92)

SALFORD 388 // 331 // UP 57 WAS 265 (UP 123)

WIGAN 404 // 336 // UP 68 WAS 284 (UP 120)

ROCHDALE 411 // 291 // UP 120 WAS 229 (UP 182)

TAMESIDE 510 // 467 UP 43 WAS 343 (UP 167)

STOCKPORT 569 // 543 // UP 26 WAS 356 (UP 213)

TRAFFORD 715 // 753 // DOWN 38 WAS 301 (UP 414)






Trafford FELL dramatically again and Stockport stood still. Tameside also fell so increased its gap on Stockport.

In fact as everyone has been rising in past week at some point Trafford is now the ONLY GM borogh actually falling week to week!

Bolton still top with Manchester the only other sub 300 but not by a lot,

Stockport's gap to Trafford falls again to just 146.

And Wigan and Rochdale climbed into the 400s meaning half of GM is now 400 or above which in the bad old days was a point where special measures would be considered. Though cases are not what they were so not happening today, of course.

The top to bottom spread falls again to 'just' 443. A week ago it was 574.
 

Indaparkside

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28 Dec 2015
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Had my COVID booster and flu jab yesterday all good no side effects so far anyone eligible to have it get it booked
 

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