Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Booster roll out has had nothing like the press and governmental push the original rollout had. People knew exactly when they’d be eligible for their first and second jabs; it was widely advertised; the booster programme seems to have disappeared off the public radar. Can’t remember last briefing from Government, Whitty etc. Mind you, that would involve a bit of ministerial forward planning...

Yes, I noted this lack of briefings earlier. I expect they have done this on purpose and they are attempting to create a sense of normality as the plan now is in effect to hope the vaccines keep Covid as a disease we can cope with this Winter. They are seeking to regain some kind of economy as I expect we could not just keep pumping money into lockdown after lockdown and our economy shrinking as the rest of the world decides to open up and live with it.

So to a degree we have to accept the hit we will still have despite all the mitigation of the vaccines.

Plus, of course, there is some natural erosion of Covid because of its heavy bias towards serious impact on the elderly. Whilst people age one year at a time a very high proportion of the eldery have been sadly killed by Covid in one go and that is inevitably on its own a faster erosion rate than new vulnerable people replace them especially thanks to the vaccine. Though the disappearance of flu last Winter will probably minimise that if it returns alongsde Covid this year now Covid is minimised.

I suspect there will be some redefining of what is a Covid death and what is a flu death over coming months as it will be something that will be a factor we never faced last year.

Unless that is this new strain of the Delta variant being reprted today which is a bit (10% I think they said) more infective suppresses flu again this winter as it might - especially given the wider flu jab programme for all vulnerabe and over 50s this autumn.

I am not talking suppression via herd immunity just a multi factored reduction of the vaccine protection and the reducing number of potential easy targets and some cases that will be reassigned as flu that last year were probably assigned as Covid just becase the patient tested positive.

 

[Gabriel]

There’s a plan B?

One of the downsides of legislating against cigarettes is that there are far fewer ‘fag packets’ to write policy on.

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

2 deaths - was 1 last week

3200 cases - was 2047 last week

540 patients - was 516 last week

51 ventilated - was 47 last week

WALES HAS SOME OF THE STRICTER MEASURES YET SEEMS TO BE GETTING WORSE AND WORSE.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

Deaths are now clearly starting to increase more and more.

Tuesday is ALWAYS the big catch up day from over the weekend but this one is worse than I had hoped.

And the North West had a VERY bad day yesterday too.



164 deaths - 33 from the North West

Last week was 132 with 17 and week before 126 with 17.

We have had some big numbers in recent days. And as you see NW deaths DOUBLED this weekend.

It is now 100% certain that there will be a significant rise in the weekly deaths in England hospitals for the first time in over a month.

The past five weeks have totalled:-

577 - 526 - 508 - 398 - 380 - A slowing down of the fall last week but still a fall.

THIS WEEK IS UP EVERY DAY BAR THE FIRST (WHICH WAS DOWN JUST 1) AND WELL UP IN SOME CASES.
AND THE REMAINING TWO DAYS THAT WILL MAKE UP THE WEEK ARE ALREADY CLEARLY HIGHER AT 3 AND 4 DAYS WITHOUT THE ADD ONS TO COME IN NEXT 48 HOURS.

The total already on 5 days is 38 UP on the 5 matching days last week and even with the two day add ons to days 4 and 5 to come the total is already 422 - above BOTH the last two weeks.

18 OCT - the most recent two day number - added 45 in one go today and 17 OCT - the day three number - added 53 to total 61 after those 3 days.

That 53 is the highest number added on the second day since 27 February.

THESE NUMBERS ARE STARTING TO BECOME A LITTLE CONCERNING AS ENGLAND PATIENTS WERE UP TOO WEEK TO WEEK YESTERDAY AS THE DATA I POSTED HERE LAST NIGHT SHOWS. SO THOSE ARE JUST FILTERING INTO MORE INEVITABLE DEATHS OVER COMING DAYS AND WEEKS SADLY.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE SUMMARY TODAY

NOT GOOD NEWS HERE - NUMBERS STILL SHOOTING UP AND ANOTHER MILESTONE PASSED TODAY


PREDICTED CASES CREEPING UP AGAIN- ON 78, 993 FROM 76, 402 - THIS IS THE MOST EVER ON ZOE - UP BY 2591 today after past few day rises of 2143, 1733, 1281 yesterday & 1147 in previous days.

Not a good looking trajectory as it is clearly increasing the rise every day.

It was 69, 845 last week.

ONGOING INFECTIONS - CLOSING IN ON THE HIGHEST NUMBER OVER ONE MILLION WE HAD IN MID JANUARY AT THE HEIGHT OF THE UKs WORST EVER WAVE.

1, 020, 264 - UP from 1, 009, 946 yesterday - a rise of 10, 318 after rises of 8102, 8440 & 8870 in days before.

AGAIN NOT A HAPPY TRAJECTORY AS THE CURVE ON THE GRAPH PLOT - WHICH WAS LAST WEEK TAILING OFF - IS NOW CLEARLY ESCALATING UPWARDS AGAIN

HIGHEST ZOE HAS EVER REACHED WAS 1, 059, 670 ON 11 JANUARY. SO WE SEEM TWO OR THREE DAYS AWAY FROM ECLIPSING THAT AND SETTING ANOTHER NEW UNWANTED RECORD

It then fell below 1 million for the last time before now on 15 January.

Today week to week it us up by a weekly RISE of 64, 969 after one of 62, 008 yesterday - SO THESE NUMBERS TOO ARE GOING UPWARD.


Ongoing case numbers will always lag daily cases as if you catch Covid you will be a Covid case for a week or two but a new case only once.




Current TOP NUMBERS:- ANOTHER DAY OF ALL CHANGE AT THE TOP AS SEVERAL REGIONS ARE CLOSE TOGETHER

WALES RISES BACK to TOP but UP too ON 1279 / 1745 FROM 1233 / 1690

NORTH EAST is second but FALL to 1157 / 1745 FROM 1193 / 1786

NORTH WEST rises to third but UP byless than yesterday ON 1266 / 1611 FROM 1255 / 1596

EAST MIDLANDS is in fourth spot though UP by more than the NW - on 1243 / 1630 FROM 1195 / 1572 - So VERY close to overtaking the NW

WEST MIDLANDS is for a second day DOWN on 1084 / 1452 FROM 1106 / 1473 & falls to sixth with YORKSHIRE overtaking it into fifth (UP big too on 1098 / 1461 FROM 1062 / 1417)

East England has gone UP quite a bit into the upper watch zone on seventh UP a lot on 1033 / 1288 FROM 973 / 1219 joining & South West UP into eighth by the most today ON 1009 / 1261 FROM 899 / 1138) & in ninth South Eas UP too ( 998 / 1185 FROM 956 / 1137)


THERE ARE NOW ONLY THREE BOROUGHS LEFT IN THE MIDDLE TIER AND NONE NOW IN THE LOWER TIER AT ALL



LONDON is the only England region still there but on UP on 887 / 1118 FROM 870 / 1097

And SCOTLAND is no longer the best - UP quite a bit again on 741 / 1060 FROM 683 / 984


NORTHERN IRELAND FALLS into the best in UK position still in the middle zone but also UP on 412 / 1433 FROM 373 / 1350

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE REGIONAL ENGLAND NUMBERS:-

In the NW they have both Liverpool up again into mid 15 K and St Helens UP on 14K

BUT Warrington fast shooting up and now on 23, 607 FROM 23, 496 FROM 22, 675 & 21, 572 - easily highest in the Merseyside area. Warrington has been high for a while but really accelerated in the past few days - though showing signs of flattening at last. I DO NOT RECALL WARRINGTON THIS HIGH BEFORE



The Fylde coast area has STOPPED rising but is still on some very high numbers - Fylde on 23K & Wyre on an astounding 49, 073 - slightly down from 49, 362 - so hopefully signs of a bigger drop to come.


Though the Lake District is fairly flattish on 20K and Lancaster/Morecambe down on 21K


Cheshire East is UP again on 18, 048 FROM 17, 399 v Cheshire West also UP on 24, 709 FROM 23, 783 - so East still behind. But both now rising and above most of GM again. And even Stockport - JUST - in Cheshire West's case.


As for GM - Stockport as usual - one step forward and another back - though only up by a tiny number and last three days have been flat.


The GM order according to Zoe with to nearest K numbers is:-

Stockport UP again sadly but unsurprisingly still THE problem in GM but only up by 131 ONTO 23, 446. Last three days been less than 200 apart. But further ahead of the rest now as Wigan in second spot FALLS today on 18, 335. Trafford in third is well DOWN to under 17K.With Salford up to fourth place though DOWN to the mid 14Ks. Tameside has the biggest fall today DOWN on mid 13K, Bury is next up slightly in the mid 13ks. Bolton falls slightly too to low 13K.And Manchester inches down now to low 12K. Rochdale - up again today leaves the lower zone up on 12, 999 - another big riser today. Oldham NOW the only borough left in the lower watch zone and FALLS slightly again to a best in GM by miles 6769. Further below the rest than the rest are ahead of Stockport. JUST!

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

Even Scotland starting to edge up now in most measures

24 deaths - was 27 last week - at least this is down

2459 cases- was 1908 last week

12.4% positivity - was 10.5% last week

869 patients - up 12 on yesterday - was 935 last week

46 ventilated icu - up 2 on yesterday - was 57 last week

Hospital data edging up but often does early week - last Tuesday v Monday patients rose by 2 (v 12 today) and ventilators by 1 (v 2 today)

 

[Healdplace]

I bet you cannot guess why Northern Ireland data is delayed. Yes - their turn in the merrygoround to have tech data issues.

Does this happen as often as in the UK elsewhere or do we just use the wrong software or supplier? Hardly a week goes by without some problem in one or more of the nations.

 

[Len Rum]

Yes, I noted this lack of briefings earlier. I expect they have done this on purpose and they are attempting to create a sense of normality as the plan now is in effect to hope the vaccines keep Covid as a disease we can cope with this Winter. They are seeking to regain some kind of economy as I expect we could not just keep pumping money into lockdown after lockdown and our economy shrinking as the rest of the world decides to open up and live with it.

So to a degree we have to accept the hit we will still have despite all the mitigation of the vaccines.

Plus, of course, there is some natural erosion of Covid because of its heavy bias towards serious impact on the elderly. Whilst people age one year at a time a very high proportion of the eldery have been sadly killed by Covid in one go and that is inevitably on its own a faster erosion rate than new vulnerable people replace them especially thanks to the vaccine. Though the disappearance of flu last Winter will probably minimise that if it returns alongsde Covid this year now Covid is minimised.

I suspect there will be some redefining of what is a Covid death and what is a flu death over coming months as it will be something that will be a factor we never faced last year.

Unless that is this new strain of the Delta variant being reprted today which is a bit (10% I think they said) more infective suppresses flu again this winter as it might - especially given the wider flu jab programme for all vulnerabe and over 50s this autumn.

I am not talking suppression via herd immunity just a multi factored reduction of the vaccine protection and the reducing number of potential easy targets and some cases that will be reassigned as flu that last year were probably assigned as Covid just becase the patient tested positive.

You mention future lockdowns in your first paragraph.
Not many scientists who are critical of the Government are suggesting this.
Just some simple measures ( not harmful to the economy) to reduce cases and deaths - I won't repeat them again.
I'm sure the the likes of Whitty,Van Tam and Vallance would support these measures which is why there are no more press conferences.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

They’re all coming out of the woodwork now aren’t they the Independent Sage goons. They are wrong time and time again but as soon as we get an increase in cases they roll the same lot out. They are not independent, they are a left wing organisation that is against the government, people will do well to remember that.

I'm just amazed that things are going so bad again, after you were so convinced that it was all Nicola Sturgeon's fault for not reopening Scotland at the same time as the rest of the UK and only Scotland would suffer the consequences.

Either that, or it just suited your own anti (different) government agenda at the time but it was clear to anyone who could remain the slightest bit impartial that other factors were at play.

Hope things start falling soon, everywhere. The rollout of boosters and getting teenage population jabbed is far too slow which isn't helping anyone.