Coronavirus (2021) thread

BlueAnorak

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Thanks, pal. I've heard if it does improve its somewhere between 12 and 18 months so fingers crossed. I guess as with lots of things related to the virus we are still finding out stuff about it.
Sadly yes. Long Covid is horrible - fortunately I recovered from it. The 1st Pfizer jab was the major turning point for me. I and a good few specialists suspect the virus hangs on in the body after infection.
 

Healdplace

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Where do we reckon the dotted line is for action being taken when we hit it? There must be a number somewhere that will trigger a reaction surely?
I doubt it will be based on cases. It will be hospital numbers rising beyond maybe 10K and ventilators over 1000 when they might rethink a few things.

But both these are inevitable as we go into winter and cases likely will plateau not much higher than where we are as the January wave flattened at not much over where we are now. With more restrictions than now. Though generated hospital numbers were much higher then as we did not have the vaccine.

Hence the lockdown then and not now. Case numbers are not as vital as they were because the people catching it are much younger so translate far less into the hospital problems of last winter. ~

It is the transfer from them to older ages in need of the third jab that will be the key issue in the next few weeks. We need to accelerate that as winter indoor family gatherings gain pace. Or hospital numbers will become difficult with other winter issues anticipated that were not here last year.
 
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Healdplace

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ENGLAND HOSPITAL SUMMARY

THE BAD NEWS CONTINUES SADLY. NUMBERS NOW RISING BECAUSE THE SOUTHERN AREAS ARE NOW THE MAIN DRIVERS AND WILL ALWAYS FOLLOW RISING CASES THERE. JUST AS DEATHS ARE STARTING TO RISE TOO - THOUGH MORE OF THOSE ARE PROBABLY ALREADY BAKED IN FROM THE BIG RISE IN PATIENTS THAT HAS BEEN INCREASING STEADILY NOW FOR A COUPLE OF WEEKS

FULL DETAILS WILL FOLLOW BUT HEADLINE

ENGLAND PATIENTS UP 161 TODAY TO 6099. UP 886 ON LAST TUESDAY.

VENTILATORS UP 30 ON DAY AND 76 WEEK TO WEEK TO 733. NORTH WEST FELL BUT THE SMALLER SOUTHERN REGIONS UP AND NOT FAR BEHIND NORTH WEST NOW.

THE INCREASE HAS BEEN DOUBLING EVERY FEW DAYS AND HAS NOW RISEN EVERY DAY FOR TEN DAYS.

ON SUNDAY ENGLAND ALSO HAD THEIR FIRST 800+ ADMISSIONS FOR SOME TIME. UP FROM 606 to 828 WEEK TO WEEK - BIGGEST JUMP IN MONTHS.

NORTH WEST STILL DOING RELATIVELY WELL HERE - BOTH VENTILATORS AND PATIENTS DOWN TODAY - BUT THE SOUTH WEST HAD THEIR FIRST DAY SINCE LAST WINTER ON SUNDAY WHEN THEY ADMITTED OVER 100 PATIENTS
 
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Healdplace

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Sorry for the capitals but I wanted the post above to stand out to those who understandably do not usually read my data posts.

As THIS data is the key to what is going on right now and whether anything will change. Not the case numbers per se.

As this is something more people are coming here to ask that is the one post you really need to see.

It is starting to look like the North West that was the first in England to go up this Summer with Bolton in late Spring may be struggling the least with the numbers right now . As the other regions that have been well behind NW for weeks start to tick up quite notably.

Both South East (on 6493 and 5 successive days over 6000) and South West (on 5619 and been there or even into the 6000s too for a few days) are 50% higher and have been for a few days than North West - today on 4482 - after weeks when North West has been out front by the same kind of margin.

Cases are still high pretty much everywhere - even the North East was over 2000 today. But the balance of contribution of cases has shifted notably southward and this is starting to be evident in the hospital numbers too as they are driving much of the paient and ventilator increases too. Not the North West as was.
 
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Healdplace

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NORTH WEST AND GM SUMMARY

NORTH WEST FALLS ON THE DAY BY 45 to 4482

However, GM FALLS BY MORE - 174 - to 1484

NORTH WEST week to week is DOWN by 576

GM is DOWN by 343 of that 576 from 1827 - which is a over the expected fall on population share.

So another GOOD day for GM and the North West.

All of the GM boroughs were down week to week apart from Wigan (up 13 to 211). Though Salford (by 28)and Stockport (by 8) were up on yesterday. Though Salford was down 10 over week to 135 and Stockport fell the most week to week by 68 to 225.

Trafford fell big week to week by 66 to 177. And that was a big enough fall to give it a lower Pop Score than Stockport 74 v 77 (so it gained 3 back to reduce the deficit to 293 for the lowest Pop Score across the whole pandemic.

Stockport's 77 was JUST enough to buy it one extra last day as the last GM occupant of the 14K club before it will join Trafford in the 15K club tomorrow.

Tameside had another good day - down 51 on the week to just 123. But it still entered the 16K club today.

Manchester top scored on 237 and two boroughs were sub 100 - Bury on 86 and Oldham still by far the best in GM on 77 and also with the lowest Pop Score today of 32.
 

BlueHammer85

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NHS chief warns PM to enforce 'Plan B' restrictions immediately​

"Plan B" coronavirus restrictions must be enforced immediately to prevent the UK "stumbling to a winter crisis", an NHS leader has warned.
NHS Confederation chief executive Matthew Taylor has urged the government to bring back certain measures, including mandatory face coverings in public places.
 

Gabriel

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NHS chief warns PM to enforce 'Plan B' restrictions immediately​

"Plan B" coronavirus restrictions must be enforced immediately to prevent the UK "stumbling to a winter crisis", an NHS leader has warned.
NHS Confederation chief executive Matthew Taylor has urged the government to bring back certain measures, including mandatory face coverings in public places.
Given that the U.K. government is increasingly reactive, if initially unresponsive, I'd imagine that it'll take another fortnight for Plan B to come into effect.
 

inbetween

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I doubt it will be based on cases. It will be hospital numbers rising beyond maybe 10K and ventilators over 1000 when they might rethink a few things.

But both these are inevitable as we go into winter and cases likely will plateau not much higher than where we are as the January wave flattened at not much over where we are now. With more restrictions than now. Though generated hospital numbers were much higher then as we did not have the vaccine.

Hence the lockdown then and not now. Case numbers are not as vital as they were because the people catching it are much younger so translate far less into the hospital problems of last winter. ~

It is the transfer from them to older ages in need of the third jab that will be the key issue in the next few weeks. We need to accelerate that as winter indoor family gatherings gain pace. Or hospital numbers will become difficult with other winter issues anticipated that were not here last year.
One thing I don't understand is why we don't have a modified booster yet? The boosters being given are just a repeat of the vaccines given earlier in the year but they have always been less effective vs Delta.

This is especially true for the AZ vaccine which contains an Adenovirus and people not only gain antibodies against COVID but they gain antibodies vs the Adenovirus itself and so efficacy drops further.

Given the prevalence of the use of the AZ vaccine here, is this possibly why our cases are higher than anywhere else? It may also explain the ping pong of cases going on in Europe, for example Greece and Germany are seeing new case booms.

 

KnaresboroughBlue

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Cases on the rise again here. Doubled in the last week and only going to head upwards I suspect. Compared to most of Europe we have quite low levels of vaccination. Not because it's not available but because so many don't want it.
 

blueparrot

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7 Jun 2012
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NHS chief warns PM to enforce 'Plan B' restrictions immediately​

"Plan B" coronavirus restrictions must be enforced immediately to prevent the UK "stumbling to a winter crisis", an NHS leader has warned.
NHS Confederation chief executive Matthew Taylor has urged the government to bring back certain measures, including mandatory face coverings in public places.
Some of the UK have been in plan B all summer. I'ts no hardship and never understood why the whole UK didn't follow the plan B plan anyway. Wearing masks isn't difficult, but it will be harder to make people go back to it,while those of us that have just carried on as far as I can tell don't have any issue with it.
 

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